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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #105,881
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:03pm Jan 13, 2012 2:03pm
Hello ,

I know the day is not over yet and the bar has not closed but I was wondering if I would be correct in saying that it looks like the candle (on the daily) is forming and outside bearish bar, am I correct in that?? ( if everything stays as is)

Thanks
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #105,882
  • Edited 6:07pm Jan 13, 2012 4:23pm | Edited 6:07pm
Quoting Gekko78
Hello ,

I know the day is not over yet and the bar has not closed but I was wondering if I would be correct in saying that it looks like the candle (on the daily) is forming and outside bearish bar, am I correct in that?? ( if everything stays as is)

Thanks
yeah, that's correct. but personally I would not take a trade there, not enought confluence if you ask me.
  • #105,883
  • Jan 13, 2012 5:09pm Jan 13, 2012 5:09pm
It's AUD/USD weekly chart. There was a pinbar in an area with lots of previous S&R. Also, it was in the direction of the trend and kind of touching the trendline. It is also at a 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. The next bar did break below the pinbar's low and then started to move upwards. I would have expected the FTA to be the low of the previous bar. Although it hasn't reached the stoploss yet (I'm only demo tradinging it, BTW), I'm beginning to think this will be a losing trade. My question is: Do you think this was a good pinbar to take? Was my reasoning ok? Did I miss something that could have prevented me from taking it? Thanks in advance. Have a happy weekend!
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  • #105,884
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:09pm Jan 13, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting Pinbar
NZD/USD is approaching an interesting area with a lot of confluence.

We got the touch at this heavily confluenced area.
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  • #105,885
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:30pm Jan 13, 2012 7:30pm
Damn internet outage for 15 hours yesterday.

Still, the levels held true.
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  • #105,886
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:39pm Jan 13, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting bmwiles
Are there any statistics on how good price action setups can be? I realize that statistically analyzing PA can be challenging due to confluence levels and the type of signal traded, but i was seeing if anyone has or is working on a data sheet from past experiences.
example 1: if an inside bar has this many types of confluence levels going with the trade it has an 85% success rate.
example 2: if this pin bar breaks past a BRN bouncing off of the 365 ema, it has a 90% success rate.

I know its a really difficult task to put numbers on such data...
Hey Brent

I personally wouldn't have any numbers like that but what you are saying I still do in my head. But its more from time and experience/testing rather then an exact science. The reason being is to me there are just too many factors for each trade to get this down enough in that way. The flexibility from trade to trade is an important thing to me instead of trying to quantifying things too much. Now still though things like Bar size, location, types of confluences are certainly important, but very difficult if you are a discretionary trader to say this = a certain % chance to succeed. Instead my focus is on logical entries and logical exits. In the past when I was doing much more testing and tracking I did watch a lot of things to begin to refine my edge. But ultimately over time that wasn't the be all end all for me rather just part of the learning process. For example one might like retrace entries, but why not also track different entries alongside, or same with exits and then you will have a lot of data to make more educated decisions.

Not exactly what you were looking for but wanted to chime in

Best
Mike


PS sorry all for late replies I got crushed by food poisoning the last 24 hours
  • #105,887
  • Edited 8:15pm Jan 13, 2012 7:55pm | Edited 8:15pm
Mike, were you also in this H1 PB?

No surprises where it bounced at the 75 and the low hitting these daily swing lows.

With the net being out yesterday, I am now locked into it till Monday.

YOU got FOOD Poisoning and you are still replying!


Take it easy there, nasty thing, food poisoning.

Damn sea food, I imagine.
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  • #105,888
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:19pm Jan 13, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Brent

I personally wouldn't have any numbers like that but what you are saying I still do in my head. But its more from time and experience/testing rather then an exact science. The reason being is to me there are just too many factors for each trade to get this down enough in that way. The flexibility from trade to trade is an important thing to me instead of trying to quantifying things too much. Now still though things like Bar size, location, types of confluences are certainly important, but very difficult if you are a discretionary...

hey mike, great reply.

I'm just a numbers oriented person so i was looking for something to meet my style of stacking up odds, and weighing out the pros and cons of certain situations. Im still getting use to the feel of things when it comes to the currencies game, so i guess there's no substitute for experience, and some learning curve.

thanks for the help,

brent
  • #105,889
  • Jan 14, 2012 4:11am Jan 14, 2012 4:11am
highest weekly close and above the 200 p. some minor ppz on the daily at about 205. might consider stop buy above this. uk's bt group on weekly.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #105,890
  • Jan 14, 2012 5:02am Jan 14, 2012 5:02am
Quoting WHenderson
It's AUD/USD weekly chart. There was a pinbar in an area with lots of previous S&R. Also, it was in the direction of the trend and kind of touching the trendline. It is also at a 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. The next bar did break below the pinbar's low and then started to move upwards. I would have expected the FTA to be the low of the previous bar. Although it hasn't reached the stoploss yet (I'm only demo tradinging it, BTW), I'm beginning to think this will be a losing trade. My question is: Do you think this was a good pinbar to take?...

There is a large consolidation box area on the left of the screen with multiple bar highs. Also, note how it failed to close below the weekly highest close of resistance.

Hope this helps
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  • #105,891
  • Jan 14, 2012 5:25am Jan 14, 2012 5:25am
Hey Mike ,
I thought there must be something wrong with you , not posting for such a long time
You can PM me for some advices , if you want . I'm invincible in terms of health Learned this stuff the hard way ...

Get better !
  • #105,892
  • Jan 14, 2012 9:51am Jan 14, 2012 9:51am
Quoting Pinbar
There is a large consolidation box area on the left of the screen with multiple bar highs. Also, note how it failed to close below the weekly highest close of resistance.

Hope this helps
Wow! Thanks, Pinbar! I appreciate your help very much. I can see you have a very well trained eye, indeed. I would have never noticed all those things you pointed out. I'll keep that in mind from now on. Have a good weekend!
  • #105,893
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:05am Jan 14, 2012 10:05am
Quoting Lapin
Beginner's luck Jim... beginner's luck

Quoting Lapin
So the location is good to me, now this is what I will monitor.
Either a bullish J16 pattern (PB if possible), but it will trade back in a congestion zone, so the probability to make it a A+ trade is very slim.

On the other hand, if we could have a break through 1.54 and closing below, and then in the next few weeks/days a retest of 1.54 with a nice bearish pattern, that could be a yummi trade given the space.


Cheers


No, not beginner's luck . .lol. You just decide to say, "let me just write this out and explain what I see at this GU level. It sounds pretty simple, what the hell, its got to be more complicated than this . .it can be this simple ." . . . I might have paraphrased a little bit. . .

You nailed it . .and you could say the same thing to many levels on many different pairs, given the same market structure . . .which happens alot.




Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #105,894
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:42am Jan 14, 2012 10:42am
Just wanted to take a minute to say thanks for everything you guys do here. I have learned quite a bit from this thread. I appreciate it and I know sometimes we can all get caught up with what we "expect". The truth is I am sure that all of you have other things you could be doing then posting all this stuff for us , especially us newbies, so thanks again!
"Greed is good,greed is right,greed works"
  • #105,895
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:43am Jan 14, 2012 10:43am
Quoting Pinbar
Price did show us a reaction close to the WLCS.
However, it did not quite make it back, nor did I like the bullish close of the H1 bar above the lower support area.

Looks like we shall now have to wait for the daily to close or a pullback to the LCS. The daily FTB to the 150 may be interesting.

H4 Divergence building up.

Great chrarts, Pinbar . .Silver had a similar deep LCS level . .The great market dynamic of Support turning into Resistance . .once Price Breaks Through and Closes Below, of course . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #105,896
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:03am Jan 14, 2012 11:03am
Quoting Pinbar
Had my eye on GBP/NZD for a while now.

Damn, all that patience and it breaks right through the area. LOL

Guess we will have to outsmart it and let it show us what it wants to do.
Great levels on the Gbp/Nzd, Pinbar . . not too many to look at, is there.

That .9450ish PPZ level should have had a stronger reaction of Support there . .what does that tell you about the down momentum of Price. . pretty strong.

I would look for that PPZ level to now act as Resistance . .which it almost did on the Daily.


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #105,897
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:12am Jan 14, 2012 11:12am
Quoting Pinbar
Mike, were you also in this H1 PB?

No surprises where it bounced at the 75 and the low hitting these daily swing lows.

With the net being out yesterday, I am now locked into it till Monday.

YOU got FOOD Poisoning and you are still replying!


Take it easy there, nasty thing, food poisoning.

Damn sea food, I imagine.
Hey Pin

Feeling a lot better today, was bad let me tell ya lol Cross that place off my list

I did not take that 1hr pinbar, but did see your first post about it as well. It sure was at a nice location. I was more watching the pattern from a daily/4hr perspective and mostly for a breakout. Since we are consolidating down to a "point" now that makes me always want to be trading away as opposed to within. That does not make that trade valid, in fact a very good highly confluenced trade. For me it's more just my style . Hope someone caught it. I'm still watching this pair closely, very close

Best
Mike
  • #105,898
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:14am Jan 14, 2012 11:14am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pin

Feeling a lot better today, was bad let me tell ya lol Cross that place off my list

I did not take that 1hr pinbar, but did see your first post about it as well. It sure was at a nice location. I was more watching the pattern from a daily/4hr perspective and mostly for a breakout. Since we are consolidating down to a "point" now that makes me always want to be trading away as opposed to within. That does not make that trade valid, in fact a very good highly confluenced trade. For me it's more just my style . Hope someone caught it....
Glad you're feeling better, Mike . .

I did a couple of Tebows in your name, my friend . . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #105,899
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:17am Jan 14, 2012 11:17am
Quoting bmwiles
hey mike, great reply.

I'm just a numbers oriented person so i was looking for something to meet my style of stacking up odds, and weighing out the pros and cons of certain situations. Im still getting use to the feel of things when it comes to the currencies game, so i guess there's no substitute for experience, and some learning curve.

thanks for the help,

brent
Hey Brent

Yep it's tough. I think more people come to trading with a numbers oriented type mindset, which is fine. In fact I am pretty numbers oriented also coming from a poker background. It's tough not to let our biases and personalities also prohibit us from progress. For example I get tons of emails/pms/etc from people who are computer programmers, or in professions where things are very ABCD. So then they try to apply this logic to their trading. For example take all the black box methods out there. They are mechanical, based on whatever statistical evidence people decide to use etc. Now this is fine if it works for you. Absolutely nothing wrong with this. The problem is if one is trying to be rigid with their trading, or one actually has an edge trying to apply this mindset. From my experience working with so many traders it is the latter. It is trying to make it easier on themselves rather then embrace other aspects of the market. For me I embrace the fact that I use my intuition, knowledge, experience or discretion to help create my edge. Again of course this does not mean someone can't do a boat load of testing and say if I take every bar that looks like X, at Y point I have a 55% edge in the long run. It's more then possible. I have explored very similar things as I alluded to in my first post. But over time I have realized my greatest strengths were me(my mind) as opposed to trying to fit the market into what I wanted. I always joke and say most people are trying to fit a square peg in a circular hole. The same could also be said for those using discretion, there is a balance b/w it all as you said that just comes with time( no matter which way you go, a lot of people end up doing a little of both including myself). I do love and greatly appreciate when I see people thinking out in this way. It's a big part of the process.

Best of luck just thought I would follow up now that I am feeling a bit better

Mike
  • #105,900
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:18am Jan 14, 2012 11:18am
Quoting jarroo
Glad you're feeling better, Mike . .

I did a couple of Tebows in your name, my friend . . .
hahahaha I hope he takes down them Pats, that will really make me feel good


Thanks buddy

Mike
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