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AUD/USD

  • #38,841
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:38pm Jan 12, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting ragnakore
Is that a recorded interview from 2010?

For 2011, the average AUDUSD is way above 1.0200.

The point is that, these economists/strategists/traders etc are just voicing their sentiments contrary to the fact. Fact is, AUDUSD is beyond "their fundamental outlook". I've been short AUDUSD and look where it got me? squat breakeven.

Bottom Line: I am fed up with these so called Fundamental Views even though I am a fundamental trader. I will henceforth trade AUDUSD according to what the real money is dumping and it is seen through the chart. Problem...
no, it was a live interview from their asian desk

and yes.. i have been burned more than once in the past 3 months sticking with my "fundementals" as well. in fact, I am venturing more into aggressive s/d trading while [trying to] completely disregarding news and fundes. it is starting to serve me quite well. it has become immediately apparent to me that this is a far more versatile method of trading. i am pretty new to it so I do miss trades here and there (like today with the 0380 zone on the aussie).

just need to keep charting and practicing.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,842
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:01pm Jan 12, 2012 9:01pm
Hey red, Im reading through some of the CICR system.

Sounds logical.
it pits strong vs weak and provide better probability.

will start trading it as soon as Im through with the rules.

PS, it gave me a sell audusd signal before this drop
  • #38,843
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:17pm Jan 12, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting ragnakore
Hey red, Im reading through some of the CICR system.

Sounds logical.
it pits strong vs weak and provide better probability.

will start trading it as soon as Im through with the rules.

PS, it gave me a sell audusd signal before this drop
hi, does this spell the end of the bull rally for aussie?

i'm looking to long but the PA looks bearish. but futures are rising.
  • #38,844
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:45pm Jan 12, 2012 9:45pm
its hard to know which is good vs bad indices example this aud dip may be a dip u dont know if it will come back up and usd was at lows aswell so hard to see a audusd trade but i took it based on fundamentals. I also look at engulfing on the hourly which told me yest of eur strength and nzd weakness so eurnzd which i got in at the bottom. Maybe luck plays but nzd had been severly overbought and looked toppy still may go back up
  • #38,845
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:47pm Jan 12, 2012 10:47pm
If AUDUSD can break 1.0380 then 1.0480 next, however a close below 1.0260 indicates it will get back to 1.0170
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,846
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:54pm Jan 12, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting happytrader
hi, does this spell the end of the bull rally for aussie?

i'm looking to long but the PA looks bearish. but futures are rising.
The problem i am seeing is thta AUD daily is showing higher lows and trying really really hard to break 1.0380.. very evry bullish.

i wont go long yet nor short it albeit i am long EURAUD instead while waiting.
  • #38,847
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:28pm Jan 12, 2012 11:28pm
h4 looks like a ascending triangle and just gave a bearish divergence..

still finding an entry to short this mother
  • #38,848
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:53pm Jan 12, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting happytrader
hi, does this spell the end of the bull rally for aussie?

i'm looking to long but the PA looks bearish. but futures are rising.
The price action looks interesting, looks like this will be the final push higher to hit the daily downtrend line...Then drop like a rock to .9200

We have to wait and see.
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #38,849
  • Jan 13, 2012 12:39am Jan 13, 2012 12:39am
Quoting rustyram
The price action looks interesting, looks like this will be the final push higher to hit the daily downtrend line...Then drop like a rock to .9200

We have to wait and see.
You gotta be kidding, right?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #38,850
  • Jan 13, 2012 12:46am Jan 13, 2012 12:46am
Quoting rustyram
The price action looks interesting, looks like this will be the final push higher to hit the daily downtrend line...Then drop like a rock to .9200

We have to wait and see.
exactly... i think yesterday was the top..... going down to 1 before the rba meeting next month, to 94 after
  • #38,851
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:23am Jan 13, 2012 1:23am
Quoting stulic
You gotta be kidding, right?
I think it's very possible specially that there is a price gap around 0.97
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,852
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:45am Jan 13, 2012 1:45am
AUD/USD - 1.0470
EUR/USD - 1.2960
NZD/USD - .8013

IF all the 3 currencies hit those levels at the same time and fall very rapidly after that , i will look to go short, but again being a friday and i have to think twice.

But these are good levels to take a short on a long term basis.

Since for AUD/USD, these are daily trendline resistance, it will be nice to have a confirmation of 4 hour bearish candle then jump on 15 min retracement and go short....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #38,853
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:48am Jan 13, 2012 1:48am
Quoting rustyram
AUD/USD - 1.0470
EUR/USD - 1.2960
NZD/USD - .8013

IF all the 3 currencies hit those levels at the same time and fall very rapidly after that , i will look to go short, but again being a friday and i have to think twice.

But these are good levels to take a short on a long term basis.

Since for AUD/USD, these are daily trendline resistance, it will be nice to have a confirmation of 4 hour bearish candle then jump on 15 min retracement and go short....
i think EURUSD key level will be 1.2946
http://www.forex-nawigator.biz/dysku...d.php?id=52576
  • #38,854
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:51am Jan 13, 2012 1:51am
i think AUD is very overvalued.

you can see at carry trade pair like AUD/USD & AUD/JPY. and you also can see AUD with other commodity currency like AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD. with bigger timeframe, i see since Sept 2010, AUD in denial zone (vs USD, JPY, NZD, CAD). nothing support this boom fundamentally, except its interest obviously.

i don't know when she will correct herself. i think with interest differential gap, short seller were thinking twice before do short and scare carry trader. for now, carry trader still can smile
  • #38,855
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:05am Jan 13, 2012 2:05am
Quoting stulic
You gotta be kidding, right?
It should go up first and hit 1.0470 area, then it should fall over the next few weeks to .9600/.9300 area, howerever bias might change, it closes above the daily down trendline.

The NZD/USD gives a similar picture, the recent up move which is a weekly retracemnt should stall at .8020 area, which is also .38% in weekly charts from the highest high to the lowest low, and from that area it should fall to 0.6500 area over the next month or so...

we have to wait and see, these levels might come in to play either tomorrow or early next week.
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #38,856
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:06am Jan 13, 2012 2:06am
I think AUD is overvalued as well.. but then what ia my sentiment mean to the real market? sentiments dont mean squat when the real money is betting on AUD up.
  • #38,857
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:46am Jan 13, 2012 2:46am
Aud/Usd
TimeFrame : m15

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,858
  • Jan 13, 2012 3:06am Jan 13, 2012 3:06am
It's always nice to see the majority thinking it's overvalued overbought and short every rally like there's no tomorrow, it only bolsters my bullish bias for this pair.
Don't fall in the bear trap just yet is all I can say.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #38,859
  • Jan 13, 2012 3:42am Jan 13, 2012 3:42am
Stulic i agree but watch that 200ma on daily looking strong
  • #38,860
  • Jan 13, 2012 3:44am Jan 13, 2012 3:44am
Lots of retail shorts trapped below 1.03
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