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AUD/USD

  • #38,821
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:39am Jan 12, 2012 10:39am
Another outlook on one of my aud trades based off 1HR charts

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/8834/cicr1.png
  • #38,822
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:53am Jan 12, 2012 10:53am
Quoting ozkr80
I'm in long from 1.3000.... It's a good or a bad idea guys???
IMO, bad. Buy at 190.

But read my sig...

EDIT: 1.0300, I presume.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #38,823
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:54am Jan 12, 2012 10:54am
Im out.

I was checking out DailyFX website. One of their tech study showed EURUSD retail positions has flipped from net long to net short - suggesting bullish eurusd.

AUDUSD on the other hand is building up short positions suggesting more bullish run up. 1.0380 is the key upward.
  • #38,824
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:56am Jan 12, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Dyekid217
Another outlook on one of my aud trades based off 1HR charts

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/8834/cicr1.png
What is the winning probability using this method?

Im very curious using these multi-indexes to weight in currency directions individually and pitting strongest vs weakest makes lots of sense.
  • #38,825
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:58am Jan 12, 2012 10:58am
Quoting redteamgo
put in a market at 0353 earlier. waiting to see if i want to dump it close to the daily low today or hold.
out for +52 ticks. covers all of my other failed trades this week.

damn my aggressive target for fading that zone. goes to show definitively, when price is aggressively reaching into s/d zones under normal market conditions.. be ready to trade against the daily trend.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,826
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:01am Jan 12, 2012 11:01am
Quoting ragnakore
I was checking out DailyFX website. One of their tech study showed EURUSD retail positions has flipped from net long to net short - suggesting bullish eurusd.
this is flawed logic. while many people might be getting squeezed right now, i am shor eur/usd and i am still up +370 ticks. the only way I will cover is a move up beyond the current channel capped at about 2920. if we close beyond that, i will cover. until then, europe is going down. i dont care what the daily sentiment thinks.. the market is up 1.2% today, down 2% tomorrow.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,827
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:09am Jan 12, 2012 11:09am
Quoting mrbandwidth
IMO, bad. Buy at 190.

But read my sig...

EDIT: 1.0300, I presume.
Yes 1.0300, sorry!!!
I closed my trade with +8pips... I'm not sure about the direction at this moment.
Anyway.. Thanks for help!!!
  • #38,828
  • Edited 11:26am Jan 12, 2012 11:15am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting ragnakore
What is the winning probability using this method?

Im very curious using these multi-indexes to weight in currency directions individually and pitting strongest vs weakest makes lots of sense.
Check out the CICR method in the trading systems forum and demo test it.. if you use basic forex knowledge theres no doubt this method is close to 80-90%

Here's a screen of my open positions right now.. I took these on friday.. so in 4 days Im up 1100 pips. The one negative position was an add on to the 390 pip trade. Mostly GBP positions since that index is in a strong downtrend. I dont remember how to do percentages so I can only say that its like what.. 80% positive if you know what your doing.


http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/6708/cicr2.png

An index will mostly go in one direction the entire month
Here's an example of the AUD index.. and how AUDUSD is a mirror image since AUD is the prefix in that pair


AUD INDEX
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/6931/cicr10.png

Now here's AUDUSD
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/5874/cicr11.png
  • #38,829
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:26am Jan 12, 2012 11:26am
Quoting redteamgo
this is flawed logic. while many people might be getting squeezed right now, i am shor eur/usd and i am still up +370 ticks. the only way I will cover is a move up beyond the current channel capped at about 2920. if we close beyond that, i will cover. until then, europe is going down. i dont care what the daily sentiment thinks.. the market is up 1.2% today, down 2% tomorrow.
We are technical traders. I think the daily sentiment is at best, very fickle...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #38,830
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:36am Jan 12, 2012 11:36am
very true.. on a day to day basis, i agree then

i typically try to capture long term trends rather than the daily movement
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,831
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:26pm Jan 12, 2012 3:26pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0340

AUD contained within the broad range of 1.0265 1.0375.
I think we go higher ( gut feel ) and take out that resistance and have a peak at 1.0425.


EUR/AUD @ 1.2403

Saw a good test of 1.2300 but ran into too many profit takers and hence the scramble back up to near 1.2450
These small corrections lead to ideal opportunities for renewed sellers.

GBP/AUD @ 1.4835 I thought I might put this one up to keep me focused on this trend. I have 1.4700 as the magical "Y O u rs" point.


Remember punters we dont get that many "standout" trends in a year let alone these historical breaks that are like blue moons.. Dont miss them !!

Have a great weekend.. be wary of Friday the 13th ( Thats if you are Stevie Wonderish)
  • #38,832
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:52pm Jan 12, 2012 3:52pm
The Eur/Aud hit the bottom of the channel perfectly and rebounded strongly, making it a key reversal day in the process, so be wary of selling it here as there may well be more gains ahead, towards the trend resistance at 1.2530 and then Fibo level at 1.2630. - see chart.

The Aud looks contained in the 1.0260/1.0375 range and set to remain choppy. If I am right about the Eur/Aud, the topside may be a bit limited for the time being for Aud/Usd, but a break of 1.0375 would look at the 200DMA at 1.0410.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,833
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:58pm Jan 12, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting Jim L
The Eur/Aud hit the bottom of the channel perfectly and rebounded strongly, making it a key reversal day in the process, so be wary of selling it here as there may well be more gains ahead, towards the trend resistance at 1.2530 and then Fibo level at 1.2630. - see chart.

The Aud looks contained in the 1.0260/1.0375 range and set to remain choppy. If I am right about the Eur/Aud, the topside may be a bit limited for the time being for Aud/Usd, but a break of 1.0375 would look at the 200DMA at 1.0410.
good post, thanks. i saw that channel after the fact. unfortunately, i was not prepared for that sudden run into the bottom of the channel and was forced to close a very good trade at only "ok" profits.

the decline on eur/aud has been so sustained lately that i had difficulty picking resistance areas and thus did not enter a position around the 2430 area.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,834
  • Jan 12, 2012 4:11pm Jan 12, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD @ 1.0340

AUD contained within the broad range of 1.0265 1.0375.
I think we go higher ( gut feel ) and take out that resistance and have a peak at 1.0425.


EUR/AUD @ 1.2403

Saw a good test of 1.2300 but ran into too many profit takers and hence the scramble back up to near 1.2450
These small corrections lead to ideal opportunities for renewed sellers.

GBP/AUD @ 1.4835 I thought I might put this one up to keep me focused on this trend. I have 1.4700 as the magical "Y O u rs" point.


Remember punters we dont get that many "standout"...
Took the trade last time you mentioned it.. TP was before the bounce... wrapped about 50 pips or so.. thanks for the "tip"
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #38,835
  • Jan 12, 2012 4:22pm Jan 12, 2012 4:22pm
The market seems to start behaving like it's supposed to pre 2008 crisis, in which if a data is bad for US, US related crosses suffer (instead of getting linked to risk).

I'm sure there would be people who would still trade based on risk on risk off, but they should be aware of the subtle changes in how the market reacts.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #38,836
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:20pm Jan 12, 2012 7:20pm
I just watched an interesting interview on Bloomberg. They had an Australian FX market strategist from Credit Suisse say they feel that the AUD is way overvalued and should be trading closed to 90 cents on the u$. This really shouldnt shape any trading decisions, it is just interesting to hear what their fundemental outlook is for this pair.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,837
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:21pm Jan 12, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting redteamgo
I just watched an interesting interview on Bloomberg. They had an Australian FX market strategist from Credit Suisse say they feel that the AUD is way overvalued and should be trading closed to 90 cents on the u$. This really shouldnt shape any trading decisions, it is just interesting to hear what their fundemental outlook is for this pair.
Hey thats my target!
  • #38,838
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:24pm Jan 12, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting redteamgo
I just watched an interesting interview on Bloomberg. They had an Australian FX market strategist from Credit Suisse say they feel that the AUD is way overvalued and should be trading closed to 90 cents on the u$. This really shouldnt shape any trading decisions, it is just interesting to hear what their fundemental outlook is for this pair.
Time to go Long then!
Expect the unexpected.
  • #38,839
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:27pm Jan 12, 2012 7:27pm
ill open an account overseas and do both
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,840
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:29pm Jan 12, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting redteamgo
I just watched an interesting interview on Bloomberg. They had an Australian FX market strategist from Credit Suisse say they feel that the AUD is way overvalued and should be trading closed to 90 cents on the u$. This really shouldnt shape any trading decisions, it is just interesting to hear what their fundemental outlook is for this pair.
Is that a recorded interview from 2010?

For 2011, the average AUDUSD is way above 1.0200.

The point is that, these economists/strategists/traders etc are just voicing their sentiments contrary to the fact. Fact is, AUDUSD is beyond "their fundamental outlook". I've been short AUDUSD and look where it got me? squat breakeven.

Bottom Line: I am fed up with these so called Fundamental Views even though I am a fundamental trader. I will henceforth trade AUDUSD according to what the real money is dumping and it is seen through the chart. Problem is, I suck at tech trading and am not afraid/ashame to claim so. Need mucho help in this department.

Thanks in advance for those who'd help.
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