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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #105,801
  • Edited 5:07pm Jan 11, 2012 3:47pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting beebolbod
Purely from a PA perspective i'd almost agree but i have to disagree with your comments about the DBHLC closing below the VBRN taking price that low. A downgrade from Fitch may do that, but little else in this setup i believe, just because it's too quick a move.... this has been panning out for over 2 months now.
Hello Beebolbod

There you go...

It is just a less than 2% move. A degree in finance cant make me expect a 50% move based only on technical analisys. Even there is never just 1 thing playing out alone, there is always technical and fundamental factors, but in trading, i really only pay attention to technical factors. Any trade i can make are sooo short lived that i can only consider technical factors, not intervention from central banks, if they can make it or not, like George Soros, or Mike, or any other experienced trader. This is too far away from my trading experience.

Bigger moves i think involves fundamental factors. They are welcomed and expected, we only need the luck to be in the market on the right direction.

Help from fundamental news events are always welcomed to push prices in our direction, never against, ;-).

Is the extremely high leverage what makes us think those are large moves in the market. With a tight 2% stop, they can represent higher returns, but those are really small moves.

What i also tried to say is that this move cooouuuld happen on the pattern you pointed out with a stronger close below the brn, because that cooouuuld have attracted other participants to the market. no certainties here, just probabilities, and just an opinion.

Finally, this is just the way i see it right now, tomorrow i can change my mind, lol.

Best wishes

Hector
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  • #105,802
  • Jan 11, 2012 4:33pm Jan 11, 2012 4:33pm
Hi! What do you think, made I some mistake , when i sell this pin bar (yellow line)???
Beautiful pin, round number, TL, fib...

i faild... Was there some mistake, or its a "necessary loss"??
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  • #105,803
  • Jan 11, 2012 5:16pm Jan 11, 2012 5:16pm
Here is the other failed trade... A lot of confluences, but i have lost... Reading the forum is nice, seems like simple, but what about these trades????? Everiting is ok, but LOSS?? Why? Thanks your answer!
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  • #105,804
  • Jan 11, 2012 5:17pm Jan 11, 2012 5:17pm
Psuedo pin bar forming on Daily EurCAD.

I know mike already pointed out the divergence on the 4hr chart.

On views on EC?
  • #105,805
  • Jan 11, 2012 5:32pm Jan 11, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting nikim
Psuedo pin bar forming on Daily EurCAD.

I know mike already pointed out the divergence on the 4hr chart.

On views on EC?
Hey nik

On my charts it's not quite a pinbar since the close was not within the previous bar. This is very similar to say the nzd/cad pin I talked about yest. These rarely are going to get going verse such a strong trend. Also note the BRN just above us and a super strong trendline. Now with that said I am still very into the 1.3 and above our TL as a possible turning point but for me to put my actual money on the line it takes a much strong signal(say we got a huge pin here or a BUOB that could change everything).

Just be very careful with these and always remember that patience for the good ones is a large part of the battle to get to the profitability side

Best
Mike
  • #105,806
  • Jan 11, 2012 5:34pm Jan 11, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting nikim
Psuedo pin bar forming on Daily EurCAD.

I know mike already pointed out the divergence on the 4hr chart.

On views on EC?
My daily has closed and it's not a pin...but I see a huge down move and a very small bearish looking bar. You would trade right back into BRN as well. I would personally need a huge pin or outside bar like we saw on the Swiss Frank weeklies several months ago to trade this pair counter trend right now.

Edit: Imagine that...Mike beat me to it. If he was gunslinger in the old west, he'd be Jesse James.
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  • #105,807
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:13pm Jan 11, 2012 6:13pm
Quoting Donkey
Edit: Imagine that...Mike beat me to it. If he was gunslinger in the old west, he'd be Jesse James.
hahah no i'd be at the saloon my friend
  • #105,808
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:18pm Jan 11, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting Zeee86
Here is the other failed trade... A lot of confluences, but i have lost... Reading the forum is nice, seems like simple, but what about these trades????? Everiting is ok, but LOSS?? Why? Thanks your answer!
Hey Zee

Losses sure do happen but a lot of them are going to be good learning experiences when you are learning. I have losses all the time, but we want to put ourselves in the best position so we limit those losses or at least take more then we give.

Here is my analysis on this one hope it helps

Best
Mike
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  • #105,809
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:19pm Jan 11, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting Zeee86
Hi! What do you think, made I some mistake , when i sell this pin bar (yellow line)???
Beautiful pin, round number, TL, fib...

i faild... Was there some mistake, or its a "necessary loss"??
I saw this one after I did the previous one, but see if you can now see the similarities in bars/what happens

Best
Mike
  • #105,810
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:25pm Jan 11, 2012 6:25pm
Quoting Zeee86
Here is the other failed trade... A lot of confluences, but i have lost... Reading the forum is nice, seems like simple, but what about these trades????? Everiting is ok, but LOSS?? Why? Thanks your answer!
Use bigger buffer for entering - 15 pips or so below/above the low/high of pin for valid entry... in these cases they not valid actualy because they not broke below for normal entry, if Your method is to enter on retraces of such pins - sorry You must accept small losses .... its more aggressive play and thats the price
all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
  • #105,811
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:44pm Jan 11, 2012 9:44pm
My eye is on NZD/USD right now. Price is at PPZ. Watching this on the H4/H1 for PA because bearish divergence is already developing. Near term trend is up though so I would need some nice looking BEOB or PB for a trade.
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  • #105,812
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:46pm Jan 11, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting Zeee86
Here is the other failed trade... A lot of confluences, but i have lost... Reading the forum is nice, seems like simple, but what about these trades????? Everiting is ok, but LOSS?? Why? Thanks your answer!
That PB did not break so it would've been a no trade.
  • #105,813
  • Jan 11, 2012 11:22pm Jan 11, 2012 11:22pm
struggles around 1.05000 ... gonna check further PA for a possible sell here

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #105,814
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:10am Jan 12, 2012 2:10am
Quoting PinWing
Hello Beebolbod

There you go...

It is just a less than 2% move. A degree in finance cant make me expect a 50% move based only on technical analisys. Even there is never just 1 thing playing out alone, there is always technical and fundamental factors, but in trading, i really only pay attention to technical factors. Any trade i can make are sooo short lived that i can only consider technical factors, not intervention from central banks, if they can make it or not, like George Soros, or Mike, or any other experienced trader. This is too far...
thanks for taking the time to comment Hector. I do realise a close of BEOUB/DBHLC etc on or below the VBRN would have been better - and i do acknowledge that in my ramblings above. I also probably took your chart too literally.

Whether the price reaches where you point out now or in 1 or 2 weeks hardly matters anyway, it's whether it gets there that matters to me!

I find it odd that nobody else comments on this though. Price has pushed below a solid VBRN, retraced and formed valid PA to go short in my opinion. So far nobody has given me reason to doubt my decision. I'm just trying to learn as i've been away from trading a while and picking up where i left off.

I'll keep you posted as it's a 200 pip winner so far and the first time i've got close to trading one of these patterns so i've been conscious i may have been trying to curve fit.
  • #105,815
  • Jan 12, 2012 5:03am Jan 12, 2012 5:03am
Watching patiently
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  • #105,816
  • Jan 12, 2012 5:58am Jan 12, 2012 5:58am
Thank you for your reply. The pin bars low was broken, isn't it? Ok, it was not 10 pips, but broken. If i place my limit bellow the pin 10 pip, my R/R ratio is very poor. Is not a great problem?? I hard to understand, how can i sucessful by this methon, if i have 1/0,3 R/R ratio... Please help me to understand that...

Thank you!
  • #105,817
  • Jan 12, 2012 6:10am Jan 12, 2012 6:10am
Hey Mike ,
I have 2 questions for you if you don't mind

Today i was watching these 2 charts :

EURCHF
It looks good to me , except is a bit too choppy . Your opinion ?

AUDJPY
Already shot straight up , with no pullback , but let's pretend it's not . Question is : does this qualify ?
I mean it's a long straight clean run before the marked consolidation to breakout from , but overall we are in a middle of a bigger sideways action . Is this bad enough to pass on it (if we pretend it pulled back with nice pa , instead of going through the roof) ?

Wish you well
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  • #105,818
  • Jan 12, 2012 6:20am Jan 12, 2012 6:20am
Quoting mbqb11
nice clean chart a lot of us are watching.

Clear consolidation in a down trend. TLs are very exact, BRN running through the mid point of consolidation also acting as a PPZ(as midpoints of consolidation almost always will)

Best
Mike
Mike
Hello and thank you

Is it now the time and cost to go to Long?

Thank you for the answer
  • #105,819
  • Edited 7:02am Jan 12, 2012 6:31am | Edited 7:02am
Looks like a lot of orders were stacked around the 1.53000 area.

Just as well as last night I set a buy order at 1.53500 and price just broke right through it, hung on to it when I saw the BEUOB and the trend line that was holding this up. Just closed out the order for a small profit as, I think this is coming back to test this area again.

EDIT: Looks like this monthly BL is all that is holding this up, right now.
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  • #105,820
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:03am Jan 12, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Yehuda Sh
Mike
Hello and thank you

Is it now the time and cost to go to Long?

Thank you for the answer


You don't really want the fish.

You want to learn to fish.

When you start trading, only you will know when it is or is not, time to cast your rod.
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