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The perfect trading system

  • #361
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:58am Jan 11, 2012 7:58am
My warm welcome to you all in 2012!

Testimonies like yours usually encourage me to do my best. Generally, I don't bother about the market between December and January and my major reason being the fact that the big players are off the market. Around this period it is easier for some manipulators to move prices erratically on very thin volumes and deceive most retail traders. The 'big boys' will be start coming back from the end of this month and will make their moves between February/March.

In my next post I will post the outcome of my research on what the monthly chart says about price action. This posting will reveal another set of facts most traders don't know about the forex market. It will provide an insight into when the 'big boys' make their moves. Will you be ready?

I wish you all the very best of 2012!!!

i

Quoting Rafiki
Hello Articulate,

Thank you for all your advice and posts in 2011. My trading has improved tremendously , I just need to improve on my money management.

Looking forward to your posts and take this opportunity to wish you and everyone who posts here a wonderful 2012.
  • #362
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:32am Jan 12, 2012 8:32am
The weekly candle should always be your guide because it is most reliable. If the weekly trend is bearish, it is not yet time to go long on H4 even if the RSI is at 25.77. You can only go long if the weekly candle reaches a hard support and turn bullish.

If the weekly candle turn bullish, switch to 50PPAA and H4 candle will give between 4-8 candles to indicate when to go long. I will post a chart in support of my response later.

Quoting Rafiki
Hello Articulate,

I am trading 4 hr chart for EURUSD, RSI is at 25.77 presently. Please let me have your thoughts on direction.

While the overall weekly trend is bearish, I believe there is a present short term bullish of at least 300 to 500 pips expected before the bearish trend continues?

Thank you
  • #363
  • Jan 13, 2012 10:14am Jan 13, 2012 10:14am
Hi All
I am considering going live at the end of the month. Is anyone using a demo account to mirror there live account ie placing trades on the demo and waiting to confirm a successful trade then placing the same trade on their live account. seems to make sense to me! any comments welcome.
  • #364
  • Edited 7:36am Jan 16, 2012 7:06am | Edited 7:36am
I promised in my last post that I will discuss price action based on the monthly chart for an improved understanding of the forex trading. I will post the monthly charts for the GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURUSD and USDJPY and as usual I will use GBPUSD, my favourite pair, to explain what monthly price action analysis is all about.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 monthly chart - gbpusd.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 monthly chart - gbpjpy.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 monthly chart - usdjpy.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 monthly chart - eurusd.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #365
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:34am Jan 16, 2012 7:34am
Successes in forex trading could only be achieved if you have the bigger picture within your purview. To achieve this it is important to realise that you can only have a ‘helicopter view’ of the market in the higher time frames. The higher time frames provide useful insights into the trading parameters within a given period of time, which could be up to 2-4 years. With this knowledge it becomes easier to proceed to the lower time frames and trade confidently within the established boundary.


For a better understanding of the picture, we will now discuss, the Monthly Price Action Analysis (MPAA). As usual we will use the GBPUSD monthly to explain the MPAA for the period December 2008 – January 2012.


A closer observation of the monthly chart for GBPUSD will reveal the following facts:

a) If the cable begins a new year around the lowest point in a yearly circle, the point usually serve as a circle for a bullish run (rise in price)
b) If the cable begins a new year around the highest point in a yearly circle, the point usually serve as a circle for a bearish run (fall in price)
c) Price moves for the first 6 months (Jan-June), consolidates for the next 3 months (July-Sept), and closes for the last 3 months (Oct-Dec)
d) Price generally consolidate around the concrete zones

The question at this point is what is the usefulness of the above analysis in a simple language? The benefit of the MPAA is that the accounting year for the ‘big players’ (banks, hedge funds, investment outfits, etc) starts from January and ends in December. At the beginning of each year, depending on the fundamental factors, the big players push the price to a direction determined by fundamental factors (it doesn’t matter whether it is bull or bear). By the middle of the year, these players used the next three months see whether the bullish/bearish run will continue or not hence the consolidation around this period. These players use the last three months to take their profit and close their books for the year. The big players will never leave roll over their profit to another year. That is the monthly circle for the Cable.

What is then my view for 2012? I.5300 is proving to be a very strong support on all time frames and most importantly the weekly candle. I expect a consolidation around this area before the next major moves, when all the market movers return by the end of this month/1st week of February. Whichever directing they are going, the weekly candles will tell us. Due to the concern with Euro, the sentiment is down but 1.530 has not been broken since August 2008. If the weekly candle breaks out of this zone and the next candle opens and closes below this level, then we should begin to look at for a test of 1.430 which is the next support.

I attach a weekly chart showing consolidation around the master charts levels. This area of weekly consolidation is where I called the concrete zone. The weekly charts can consolidate for up to three months. The consolidation area for now is between 1.5360 and 1.5780 (about 420 pips) and the Masterchart support is 1.530 until firstly, the body of a weekly candle closed outside and secondly a the body of a weekly candle opens and closes outside this level. A pin outside 1.530 is a false breakout.

What I am trying to do here is to explain this process and give you knowledge to apply it to any situation. To gain confidence in your analysis pick the chart for any currency pair e.g. EURUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD, and try the MPAA through this simple process:

Ø Identify where the prices on the monthly chart are in Dec/Jan over a period of 2-3 years
Ø Identify the highest and lowest point for 2-3 years
Ø Identify weekly chart price reaction around the concrete zone
Ø Identify the consolidation areas (concrete zone)

You can post your charts here and I will endeavour, I will review them and tell you where you need to improve.

I attach the monthly for GBPUSD in support of MPAA and the weekly, daily, H4 and even H1 charts to show price reaction within our current 400 pips concrete zone. 50PPAA will tell you the imediate direction and read the mindset of a successful trader to know how to react to what you see in our charts. I will update the mindset of a successful trade to include MPAA.

I wish you successful trading in 2012.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 concrete - gbpusd 400 pips.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 concrete - daily gbpusd 400 pips.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 concrete - h4 gbpusd 400 pips.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012 concrete - h1 gbpusd 400 pips.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #366
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:47pm Jan 17, 2012 11:47pm
Dear colleques of trading internet foreign exchange! Could you recommend some strategy/ way of thinking for a long-term period? Are there any points to remember? Thank you in advance)
very nice, good price..!
  • #367
  • Jan 18, 2012 5:54am Jan 18, 2012 5:54am
Quoting Jose Louis
Dear colleques of trading internet foreign exchange! Could you recommend some strategy/ way of thinking for a long-term period? Are there any points to remember? Thank you in advance)

Online Foreign Exchange (Forex) is a not a piece of cake but a highly risky endeavour. You will only go far if you read extensively and did a lot of research on your own. For a start read all the links below. After this, read my post on "the mindset of a successful trader". If you have questions, post them here, I will answer them to the best of my ability.

Quoting Articulate
Money Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post4663403

Master charts for major pairs
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post4656556
GBPUSD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post4663419
AUDUSD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post4656573
GBPJPY
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4658364
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post4689307
EURUSD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post4675317
USDCAD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post4694266
AUDJPY
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post4694681
GBPCHF
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post4694910

Using...
  • #368
  • Edited 9:36am Jan 28, 2012 9:21am | Edited 9:36am
Let me quote the opening paragraph of the post on MPAA above "Successes in forex trading could only be achieved if you have the bigger picture within your purview."


Check the weekly chart for the cable and see how it looks. The weekly candles currently sits pretty well on the Masterchart level of 1.530 which has not be broken since 2008. The daily candle has been been on bullish run non-stop for the last 10 days. The barrier to the bull is the concrete zone barrier at 1.5780, which is the area to watch out for. The question at this point is will the weekly candle break this barrier and continue the run? The 50PAA on H4 chart will give you the advance signal. Count the numbers of weekly, daily and H4 candles that urrently sit on 1.530 to appreciate the reliability of this analysis. 1.530-1.5780 is still our concrete zone, a break either way by the weekly candle will confirm the direction between now and the middle of the year.

This is the superior way of looking at the market.

As usual see the daily and H4 candles showing the 50PPAA.

Enjoy your weekend!




Quoting Articulate
[font=Tahoma]What is then my view for 2012? I.5300 is proving to be a very strong support on all time frames and most importantly the weekly candle. I expect a consolidation around this area before the next major moves, when all the market movers return by the end of this month/1st week of February. Whichever directing they are going, the weekly candles will tell us. Due to the concern with Euro, the sentiment is down but 1.530 has not been broken since August 2008. If the weekly candle breaks out of this zone and the next...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 2012 update daily.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 2012 update h4.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #369
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:52am Feb 1, 2012 7:52am
What I will discuss today is how to identify the top and bottom on the weekly chart (which I referred to as nN, mM, Vv, Uu and Ww). The discussion will revolves specifically around steps 3 of my posting on the mindset of a successful trader.

Trained eyes will easily recognise these alphabets on a weekly candlesticks chart. However, an inexperienced trader will get a better picture using a line chart. The advantage of candlesticks chart is that the weekly pins will be visible and this allows for a more precise analysis and opportunity to enter trades at a better discounts. That notwithstanding the end result will be basically be same.

See the attached weekly candlesticks and line charts and identify nN, mM, Vv, Uu and Ww) on the charts.

There is an excellent chance of success, if these signs are used in conjunction with 1000PPAA and Masterchart levels. The question at this point is "How many traders have the discipline to wait for the right set-up?

With a different approach. trading could be much easier.

The link to the full postiing on the Mindset of a successful trader is pasted here.



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...211973&page=21

Quoting Articulate
THE MINDSET OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADER!




Step 3: The best trading opportunities are in the weekly:[color=black][font=Tahoma] To increase your chance of success, sell only the top of nN, mM and buy around the base of V, U and W on the weekly charts. To identify these level signs, open a weekly chart, look closely and you will begin to recognize them....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 2012 - msns - candles.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 2012 - msns.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #370
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:17am Feb 9, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Articulate



What is then my view for 2012? I.5300 is proving to be a very strong support on all time frames and most importantly the weekly candle. I expect a consolidation around this area before the next major moves, when all the market movers return by the end of this month/1st week of February. Whichever direction they are going, the weekly candles will tell us. Due to the concern with Euro, the sentiment is down but 1.530 has not been broken since August 2008.
1.530 held as a strong support. So far it appears the "big players" are trying to attack the masterchart level at 1.630, but 1.600 (psychological barrier) is the first obstacle. From 1.270 t0 1.592 is 528 pips so far. Will they complete the 1000 pips movement at once or will there be a pullback before completing the move? Time will tell. But what I know is that as far as the weekly chart is concerned, the bull are still in charge.

Can a trader join the train now? It is too late for any long term trade, but if you are looking for around 50 pips per trade, look for retrace on 50PPAA. If at least three H4 candles fail to break a level, join the 4th one for the continuation of the bullish run.

It is always better to have a strategic view of the market!

I attach the daily and H4 charts in support of the above analysis.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-daily february.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-h4- february.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #371
  • Feb 23, 2012 8:12pm Feb 23, 2012 8:12pm
Hi,

Need your advise for the day trading, I have been monitoring everyday on the GBPUSD and also other pairs...it hardly enter the red or yellow box in H4 and M15 at the same time.

How to day trade if it hardly enter the box??

Thank you.

Quoting Articulate
We shall now discuss how to use the Mastercharts for:

a) Day Trading: Multiple trades targeting less than 10-50 pips at a time. Such trades should not be carried overnight, unless it is at BPE



b) Short term trading: Trades targeting 50-100 pips that could run for more than a day


c) Medium Term Trading: Trades targeting 100-200 pips that could run for 1-2 weeks


d) Long Term trading: Trades that could...
  • #372
  • Feb 24, 2012 9:03am Feb 24, 2012 9:03am
Daily Trading

GBPJPY, H4 and M15 has enter the red box (RSI). As you said just click the sell button and take profit when the RSI go down to 50 level or 30 in order to gain the 10-50 pips easily.

However, this pair keeps on shooting up. Instead of gaining 10-50 pips, i'm in the losing position more than that.

Need you assistance and clarification on your method.

Thank you.
  • #373
  • Edited 6:56am Mar 6, 2012 6:24am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting forex_winner
Hi,

Need your advise for the day trading, I have been monitoring everyday on the GBPUSD and also other pairs...it hardly enter the red or yellow box in H4 and M15 at the same time.

How to day trade if it hardly enter the box??

Thank you.
You need to read carefully the posting to understand this system. It will also be helpful to read the mindset of a successful trader to understand the sequence of events. To make it easier, I attach 4 charts which I labelled Steps 1 (weekly trend), Step 2 (daily trend), H4 and M15

Here is the explanation.

Step 1 (Weekly trend): This is your most important guide. Trade in the direction of the weekly. If the weekly is on bullish run, it can remain so for at least 4-5 weeks.

Step 2 (Daily trend): This is second most important guide and the actual trade guide. If the daily RSI enters the yellow zone on the trade friendly chart, the most profitable option is to go long (buy) on the lower timeframe H4 and M15

H4, whenever the daily enters the yellow zone, the time to buy is when H4 enters the yellow zone.

M15 drops into the yellow several times as depicted by A-F during a weekly bullish run and each yields over 50 pips.

Remember, when using H4 and M15 you will have to use them along with 50 PPAA to know the precise point to enter the market.

This is how to look at it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd - step 1 weekly.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd - step 2 daily.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd - step 2 h4.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd - step 2 m5.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #374
  • Mar 6, 2012 7:01am Mar 6, 2012 7:01am
For day trading, use H4 with 50 pips price action analysis.



Quoting forex_winner
Daily Trading

GBPJPY, H4 and M15 has enter the red box (RSI). As you said just click the sell button and take profit when the RSI go down to 50 level or 30 in order to gain the 10-50 pips easily.

However, this pair keeps on shooting up. Instead of gaining 10-50 pips, i'm in the losing position more than that.

Need you assistance and clarification on your method.

Thank you.
  • #375
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:18pm Mar 16, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting Articulate
Here is the update on the above post and a weekly chart. 1027 pips from the low of ¥117. The top for now ¥127.32. Read the post again to understand the direction. I will continue to post regular updates once we break significant levels.

Enjoy your day!
Articulate

We have broken some significant levels on this pair and I would appreciate an update from you. Your last update was November 2011.

My thoughts are as follows.

117 run may have ended at 130 - 1300 pips. We got a small pullback to 126.50 area and keeping in line with your 1000 pip cycle price may go to 136 area.

RSI(14) is just below 70 zone on my weekly chart. However, with STOCH(5,3,3) it is just under 95 zone on my weekly chart. This to me says a pullback may be soon.

Thanks.

Skillwill
The Will is Greater than the Skill
  • #376
  • Mar 17, 2012 1:53pm Mar 17, 2012 1:53pm
you stopped blogging ?
More on my Blog...
  • #377
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:37am Mar 19, 2012 11:37am
Quoting mv6
you stopped blogging ?

I am still blogging, but I have not been able to update my blog because I have been very busy. As you will observe I still post whenever there need arises on forexfactory If you observe the postings on my blog and my thread on forex factory are basically the same. I use both medium to preserve my ideas and they are like back up to each other. In case, any of the medium fails, I still have the other to fall back on. Thanks for drawing my attention to the fact that my blog is out of date, I will find time to keep it up to date with my thread on forexfactory.

I am currently working on something very interesting which I will share here next month.

Have a great day!
  • #378
  • Mar 19, 2012 12:55pm Mar 19, 2012 12:55pm
You are quite right with your analysis. The run from 117 ended at 130 for 1300 pips. It is however better to concentrate on round figures e.g. 115, 120, 125, 130, 135, 140, 145, etc and consider anything outside that as overshoot.

If you look at the two charts I attached, the obvious destination is 135, while the monthly pin is on 140 and bottom at 120. Price can stretch up to 140, but expect a pull back after 135. Between 135-140 is the ideal place to start shorting for a test of the monthly bottom around 120. The bullish run is still intact on weekly chart as the bearish weekly candle ended closed with long wick. monitor the weekly candle

This my view



Quoting skillwill
Articulate

We have broken some significant levels on this pair and I would appreciate an update from you. Your last update was November 2011.

My thoughts are as follows.

117 run may have ended at 130 - 1300 pips. We got a small pullback to 126.50 area and keeping in line with your 1000 pip cycle price may go to 136 area.

RSI(14) is just below 70 zone on my weekly chart. However, with STOCH(5,3,3) it is just under 95 zone on my weekly chart. This to me says a pullback may be soon.

Thanks.

Skillwill
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dragon 2012 - month.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dragon 2012 - weekly.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #379
  • Mar 23, 2012 8:56am Mar 23, 2012 8:56am
Articulate gpusd and eurusd , sell and take profit 200pips, are you agree with me, gbpjpy ??????wait and see
  • #380
  • Edited 9:52am Mar 27, 2012 5:28am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting Mr.chia
Articulate gpusd and eurusd , sell and take profit 200pips, are you agree with me, gbpjpy ??????wait and see

Chia,

I will use the opportunity to answer your question to talk about the parameters I adopt for placing trades. Before I do that let me answer your question specifically.


GBPUSD

MPAA - The best time to begin to look for short is between April- June (Wait)
1000 PPAA: 1.6270-1.630 is the place to short (wait)
Weekly - The weekly candle has been consolidating since Jan. 29. The valid weekly pins were pins were given on the 2nd & 26th of February
Daily Trade Friendly Chart: - The sell signal was given on the 1st and 8th of February

EURUSD

MPAA - The best time to begin to look for short is between April- June (Wait)

1000 PPAA: 1.3600-1.3630 is the place to short (wait)

Weekly - The weekly candle has been bouncing between 1.300 - 1.3500 for about 5 weeks. The valid weekly pin was given on 19th February.

Daily Trade Friendly Chart: - The sell signal was given on 24th of February

GBPJPY

MPAA - The best time to begin to look for short is between April-June (Wait)

1000 PPAA: 130-133 is the place to short - 135 is the round figure (wait)
Weekly - There is no pin on weekly candle yet, where this week candle closes will determine whether we will have a pin at 133.48 (Wait)

Daily Trade Friendly Chart: - The sell signal was given on 16th of March 133.48

My parameters for trading

The general guide on these parameters is available on the mindset of a successful trader.

What I will provide here are the practical elements of the mindset. Trading should be guided by clear parameters. If these parameter are not met, there is no point entering a trading. Here are my trading parameters now in the order of priority:

1. Monthly Price Action Analysis (MPAA) - There are clear months for long and clear months for short. Read my posting on MPAA to understand this circle

2. 1000 Pips Price Action Analysus (PPAA) - Major players trade 1000 pips. For short term trades divide the 1000 pips into 4 equal parts of 250 pips. You can begin to look for long in the first 250 pips and long in the last 250 pips. Personally I prefer the first 150 pips and the last 150 pips. For the Yen pairs extend the 1000 pips to between 1300-1500.

3. Trade Weekly pins - If there are not signals in the first and second parameter, the weekly pins (topmost and bottoms) will give you clear signals concrete zones. Concrete zones could be between 300 to 500 pips. You short as close as possible to the top of the concrete zone and buy as close as possible to the bottom of the zone. Pins after about 3-4 weekly candles are most reliable.

4. Daily Trade Friendly chart: If there is no signal on MPAA and 1000 PPAA and you want to trade for 200 pips or less check the daily trade friendly chart, a touch of the red zone is a good signal to sell, while a touch of the yellow zone is a reliable signal for buy. It is usually more profitable to trade in the direction of the weekly. If you sell when the trend is up on the weekly chart, take profit on the touch of 50 points on the daily RSI. If you buy when the trend is still down on the weekly take profit on the touch of 50 Points on daily RSI

5. 50 Pips Price Action Analysis: No matter the parameters you are using go to 50PPAA to actually place trades, that way you gets trades at the best discount.

I attach some charts, but will find time and attach more later.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy2012 - weekly.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2012 - weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 2012 - weekly.gif Size: 18 KB
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