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AUD/USD

  • #38,461
  • Jan 5, 2012 7:21pm Jan 5, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting sidhujag
maybe we visit 1.0370 before deciding which direction for short term
if it were to rally 140 pips wouldnt that mean it already decided its short term direction..
  • #38,462
  • Jan 5, 2012 7:23pm Jan 5, 2012 7:23pm
Quoting taxe91
if it were to rally 140 pips wouldnt that mean it already decided its short term direction..
What do you think NFP is for
  • #38,463
  • Jan 5, 2012 7:48pm Jan 5, 2012 7:48pm
a nice base has formed at 1.0240. fxlive has reported strong bids at 10220. i have placed a limit buy at 10230 stopped tightly. i think the probability favors an upward movement in anticipation of good NFP numbers to accompany the good US numbers of today yielding equity strength.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,464
  • Edited 10:09pm Jan 5, 2012 8:21pm | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting redteamgo
a nice base has formed at 1.0240. fxlive has reported strong bids at 10220. i have placed a limit buy at 10230 stopped tightly. i think the probability favors an upward movement in anticipation of good NFP numbers to accompany the good US numbers of today yielding equity strength.
i anticipate a good number as well. however, i worry market may downplay a good nfp claiming "seasonal number does not count".

i prefer a bad number to maintain selling pressure. i agree 1.0220 is strong support much like 1.0380 a strong resistance. i'd be waiting to sell on clean break of 1.0220 myself for a below 1.0100 target.

likewise, currently waiting with a limit sell @ 1.0275 & 1.0350 with stop 1.0375 for a 1.0100. but will pull out if nfp is good.

if nfp is verry bad, then its 0.9600 for january

PS on a very bad NFP, i would sell AUDJPY too. but will close once USDJPY drops below 76.00; intervention looms.
  • #38,465
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:32am Jan 6, 2012 2:32am
think 65 is a key number here, if break then 0320 here we come
  • #38,466
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:45am Jan 6, 2012 2:45am
AUDUSD Analyse long 1.025 and enter
  • #38,467
  • Jan 6, 2012 3:04am Jan 6, 2012 3:04am
closed all my shorts for the moment.. had some bullish signals sparking my attention on the 1H chart. bit hesitant to be short with the NFP due later as well..
  • #38,468
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:00am Jan 6, 2012 4:00am
Thinking short:
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/home/201...ale-short.html
http://gyazo.com/3ad7c5b69854603eeda13ed5f0ea6497.png
{Promotion Removed}
  • #38,469
  • Edited 6:28am Jan 6, 2012 5:59am | Edited 6:28am
...........

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,470
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:02am Jan 6, 2012 6:02am
Quoting ragnakore
i anticipate a good number as well. however, i worry market may downplay a good nfp claiming "seasonal number does not count".

i prefer a bad number to maintain selling pressure. i agree 1.0220 is strong support much like 1.0380 a strong resistance. i'd be waiting to sell on clean break of 1.0220 myself for a below 1.0100 target.

likewise, currently waiting with a limit sell @ 1.0275 & 1.0350 with stop 1.0375 for a 1.0100. but will pull out if nfp is good.

if nfp is verry bad, then its 0.9600 for january

PS on a very bad NFP, i would...
i dumped my long at 1.0230. agrd on the a/j. that is a good pair to trade simultaneously

however, i cant see NFP affecting aud/usd so much that it slides to 9600 unless the supposed bull tick in gold does not last
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,471
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:09am Jan 6, 2012 6:09am
market is dropping clues...cad employment numbers were reasonable(met forecasts) yet cad was sold off. Market maybe looking for an excuse to sell risk

Is the same going to happen later with the aud when nfp comes out
  • #38,472
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:36am Jan 6, 2012 6:36am
NFP please send this thing to 1.0300
  • #38,473
  • Jan 6, 2012 7:11am Jan 6, 2012 7:11am
Quoting jayjb
NFP please send this thing to 1.0300
I would like to see:

a very good number; AUDUSD spiking up
then the "wait a minute" moment as traders pause
to ponder as the number is mostly parttime jobs,
while fulltime jobs went down.
AUDUSD breaking down hard.

Be careful to check PARTTIME vs FULLTIME JOBS. Not the sum of the two. FULLTIME is the only one that counts! Unemployment counts too unless it is way too good, it will be ignored. PRIVATE is more important than PUBLIC employment too... Oh hell... this is getting too complicated.

Trading NFP isnt as easy as 1-2-3 like it used to 3 years earlier.. All these data trading changed in 2009-2010: Good US Data = Bad for USD? Well thats how the cookie crumble; trade that way then.

Quoting redteamgo
however, i cant see NFP affecting aud/usd so much that it slides to 9600 unless the supposed bull tick in gold does not last
A really bad NFP can and will send this down. right now, only US is showing positive economic signs while EUROPE, China is showing signs of weakness/declines. And if US is sick as well, then the world is gloomy looking forward. 0.96 will not happen today, but will happen in 2 weeks on bad bad NFP.
  • #38,474
  • Jan 6, 2012 7:38am Jan 6, 2012 7:38am
NFP is RISK POSITIVE on all counts:
#1. Good Private
#2. Good Fulltime
#3. Low unemployment
#4. revisions to previous are neutral (not negative)

So why is AUDUSD not taking out 1.0300?
EUR?
  • #38,475
  • Jan 6, 2012 7:46am Jan 6, 2012 7:46am
Quoting ragnakore
NFP is RISK POSITIVE on all counts:
#1. Good Private
#2. Good Fulltime
#3. Low unemployment
#4. revisions to previous are neutral (not negative)

So why is AUDUSD not taking out 1.0300?
EUR?
aud/usd is flat.. but the aud crosses are very bullish for aud. same with jpy and cad crosses EXCEPT for aud/jpy which has flows coming out of jpy and into dollars.

this is really interesting. this NFP release adds further weight to the fact that risk on/off relationship is deteriorating.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,476
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:16am Jan 6, 2012 8:16am
Quoting ragnakore
NFP is RISK POSITIVE on all counts:
#1. Good Private
#2. Good Fulltime
#3. Low unemployment
#4. revisions to previous are neutral (not negative)

So why is AUDUSD not taking out 1.0300?
EUR?
excuse me sir
i'm a beginner in forex i'm curious why aud have to go up if all usd news are good?since aud paired with usd mean if good news for usd it's bad news for aud isn't it?
if you wouldn't mind would you explain it or do you have a link so i could read it?
thank you before and sorry to bother you
  • #38,477
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:35am Jan 6, 2012 8:35am
Quoting zarach
excuse me sir
i'm a beginner in forex i'm curious why aud have to go up if all usd news are good?since aud paired with usd mean if good news for usd it's bad news for aud isn't it?
if you wouldn't mind would you explain it or do you have a link so i could read it?
thank you before and sorry to bother you
What you know is "old school" pre Leman brothers/SubPrime crisis news/data trading era wherein Good/Bad news for a country will affect strength of their corresponding currency; ie, BAD US news will depreciate USD.

THAT DOES NOT APPLY ANYMORE!

However, in 2009, things changed. News are now traded based on RISK. If its good, then RISK ON; if bad then RISK OFF. RISK Currencies such as AUD, EUR will appreciate vs USD on good US news. RISK OFF currencies such as JPY and CHF will appreciate vs USD on bad US news.
  • #38,478
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:38am Jan 6, 2012 8:38am
Quoting zarach
excuse me sir
i'm a beginner in forex i'm curious why aud have to go up if all usd news are good?since aud paired with usd mean if good news for usd it's bad news for aud isn't it?
if you wouldn't mind would you explain it or do you have a link so i could read it?
thank you before and sorry to bother you
Australia is a country that relies heavily on commodities, i.e. mining of iron ore, etc. Positive USD results potentially mean less unemployment, more likely people will increase purchases of goods, houses, construction etc. hence the need for more commodities (ie iron ore required for making steel as just one example) will be required and hence an improvement for commodity based currencies like CAD and AUD. Thats it broadly speaking, other may contribute in more detail or forward you a link.
  • #38,479
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:44am Jan 6, 2012 8:44am
Quoting ragnakore
What you know is "old school" pre Leman brothers/SubPrime crisis news/data trading era wherein Good/Bad news for a country will affect strength of their corresponding currency; ie, BAD US news will depreciate USD.

THAT DOES NOT APPLY ANYMORE!

However, in 2009, things changed. News are now traded based on RISK. If its good, then RISK ON; if bad then RISK OFF. RISK Currencies such as AUD, EUR will appreciate vs USD on good US news. RISK OFF currencies such as JPY and CHF will appreciate vs USD on bad US news.
thank you very much for your explanation sir
guess i should read and learn from the people in ff than from books
  • #38,480
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:47am Jan 6, 2012 8:47am
Watch EURUSD 1.2700, SPX 1270, AUDUSD 1.0200
(Hmmm... only AUDUSD isnt same number as the other two...)
All will move in same direction comfirming the trend.

Sell Trigger finger getting itchy....
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