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  • #1,421
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:38pm Jan 3, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting diceman555
hi olu,i posted the very same thoughts in my journel only using the gap on ftse,as my reference,the price action on ftse has been equally odd,theres gapping holes in price right down to the 5100 level,i have also been working on time cycles on ftse,which is also indicating a large pending short,i guess were waiting for the next calamity to come out of europe,
Hi Diceman555. Thanks for visiting the thread. Price action - although it went up just didnt look good. Add to the mix the fact that nothing has changed in the eurozone and we have an adhesive plaster stuck firmly over the issue. If we dont eventually go down haaaaaard then it is due to the mother of all intervention from the powers that be.
I will follow your thread Diceman555.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,422
  • Edited 7:52pm Jan 3, 2012 7:30pm | Edited 7:52pm
4th 4hr candle is bearish and eating into the gap a bit. The only ominous thing is a support line forming at the lows of the candles
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,423
  • Jan 4, 2012 2:00am Jan 4, 2012 2:00am
morning,
got a sell in place at 5692 on ftse100,to clear overnights .all indicies in red negative,

my short from last night on cable still in,cable held better than most at present,again prety much all my pairs in negative,watchinh price to determine wether its a small retrace from yesterdays rise
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,424
  • Jan 4, 2012 2:03am Jan 4, 2012 2:03am
sorry olu,was reading your journal and inadvertantly posted my charts on your thread instead of mine,it is early here !
  • #1,425
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:09am Jan 4, 2012 7:09am
Quoting diceman555
sorry olu,was reading your journal and inadvertantly posted my charts on your thread instead of mine,it is early here !
If you are still in the trades then you are in the money

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,426
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:17am Jan 4, 2012 7:17am
Quoting Olu
Find uploaded a daily chart of the dollar index showing a battle at support that is significant.

Watching with interest...

Olu
A brief dip and a bounce back above can be observed. US$ strength is back...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,427
  • Edited 7:54am Jan 4, 2012 7:21am | Edited 7:54am
I said somewhere that the breakdown below the triangle could be a fakeout and it appears to be one. Price has dived back into the triangle leaving a false break in its wake. We are still in 'retest of the breakdown area' mode so a full close back in the triangle is required to confirm a new upmove. Patience is required here so that we are not exposed to unnecessary risk. Always wait for the decision candle to close before placing a trade. At the back of my mind I wanted to see a bit more us$ retracement as the usdcad is under the 20sma on the weekly chart. But when you have conflicting signals you either wait for them to clear up or switch strategies to one that matches the current atmosphere.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily-04012012-1315uk.JPG Size: 72 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,428
  • Jan 4, 2012 6:14pm Jan 4, 2012 6:14pm
Olu,


Here is the weekly eurgbp chart.

I would look for a bounce around .8100 then .7700 then most likely .7250...the start of the big push up.

This could take awhile 9/5 'rs but chart damage has been done.

Sell pullbacks based upon your strat.

Manage your risk...it could be a bumpy ride.



good hunting,


golfer
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  • #1,429
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:17pm Jan 4, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting golferfx
Olu,


Here is the weekly eurgbp chart.

I would look for a bounce around .8100 then .7700 then most likely .7250...the start of the big push up.

This could take awhile 9/5 'rs but chart damage has been done.

Sell pullbacks based upon your strat.

Manage your risk...it could be a bumpy ride.



good hunting,


golfer
If there is a pair that can test your patience and resolve it is this pair. Like it knows its going down but wants to do it by going to the moon enroute. As Golfer said ireparable chart damage has been done. We are at support right now as I type @8282. Breakdown was at 8500. And I am looking for some retracement to sell and align with the technicals. Stochs is oversold - even on the weekly so look out for a reversal. It is a posibility not gospel though. We could keep on going down which would probably mean a missed trade.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,430
  • Jan 5, 2012 8:15am Jan 5, 2012 8:15am
Find uploaded a chart for the above pair. This trade, if activated would be a good addition to our long term trading strategy. A break of support on this weekly chart can bring about the same fate like the eurcad.

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,431
  • Jan 5, 2012 8:34am Jan 5, 2012 8:34am
I have been looking to go long this pair in the last few days and my reasons are as follows:

Support at 1.0050 was successfully tested and it held.
Yesterday was an inside day and we have broken to the upside i.e confirmed bullish harami pattern.
For the structure to be at support is even better.
For we 9-5 traders the risk is low i.e against the low of the bullish harami down candle.
Chart showed a breakdown from a triangle and a quick zoom back into it therfore negating it.
Stochastics has turned up as well...

Now todays candle has not closed so your own d/d is necessary

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,432
  • Jan 5, 2012 8:53am Jan 5, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Olu
Nice big gap up in the dow today. Signs of weakness and indecision are showing though. If the market is saying 'opps I did it again' the all the currency rallies will dissipate especially the euro

Olu
Gap closed on the Dow... This confirms that the gap was not as 'runaway gap'. This is bearish

Dollar Index on the verge of an upside breakout as well. not good for stocks

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,433
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:53am Jan 6, 2012 6:53am
Been looking at this pair for a while. I think we are about to go lower.

We are channelling on the daily charts with a slant to the downside at the moment. The stochastic has firmly turned down. Now the thing is we were in an up-trend before this channelling. It is possible that the market is just unwinding the overbought nature of the market.

the weekly chart does not agree though and the monthly as well. The stochastic on both of them are crossed and down. The monthly chart is showing patterns of reversal

This is a play on economies. If we are bearish this pair we are saying 'fundamentally' that Australia is going to the dumps faster that New Zealand. Pure and simple. Another thing to note is the spread in this pair is wide and the movements can be slow and tedious at-times. If you want to learn patience go for it. We ll need patience anyway.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,434
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:12am Jan 6, 2012 9:12am
Quoting Olu
Find uploaded a daily chart of the dollar index showing a battle at support that is significant.

Watching with interest...

Olu
Finally...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-Daily-06012012-1509uk.JPG Size: 53 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,435
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:31pm Jan 7, 2012 6:31pm
Keeping in mind your idea's on dollar strength.

Here is the Gbp/usd monthly candle chart we spoke about.

Breakdown from trendline would be very bad or very good...depending what side of the trade your on.

Plan ahead 9/5'rs.





golfer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,436
  • Jan 8, 2012 5:50am Jan 8, 2012 5:50am
hi olu,golferfx,

the daily diagnal has been breached and came back ,but back below again,the weekly is also not far from testing its support,and as you say monthly is on the verge,interesting stuff !.personaly im waiting for a trigger to short cable and ftse with longer view trade,but i think its a little way of yet,having said that im not the best thinker at the best of times!!!
i would like to see the daily test that diagnal and hold below,i feel a sunami in the making
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  • #1,437
  • Jan 8, 2012 4:02pm Jan 8, 2012 4:02pm
Quoting golferfx
Keeping in mind your idea's on dollar strength.

Here is the Gbp/usd monthly candle chart we spoke about.

Breakdown from trendline would be very bad or very good...depending what side of the trade your on.

Plan ahead 9/5'rs.
golfer

Great perspective Golfer. I think this will eventually break down rather than up. I whacked on a MACD on the monthly chart and it has turned down. 9-5ers please note that this is a monthly chart and a month is a long time in forex.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-monthly-07012012.jpg Size: 137 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,438
  • Jan 8, 2012 7:06pm Jan 8, 2012 7:06pm
Stock indices - down
Gold - down
Dollar Index - up
EurUsd - down
Bonds - Up

These are early days though and things can change before the US markets open. But at least it goes to show that the primary trends are in place.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,439
  • Jan 9, 2012 7:59am Jan 9, 2012 7:59am
Quoting Olu
Stock indices - down
Gold - down
Dollar Index - up
EurUsd - down
Bonds - Up

These are early days though and things can change before the US markets open. But at least it goes to show that the primary trends are in place.

Olu
Now we seem to be in retacement mode. How long and how deep is anyone's guess. Things have certainly changed from earlier today. Exited my usdcad trade looking to get in lower.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,440
  • Jan 9, 2012 8:14am Jan 9, 2012 8:14am
Quoting diceman555
hi olu,golferfx,

the daily diagnal has been breached and came back ,but back below again,the weekly is also not far from testing its support,and as you say monthly is on the verge,interesting stuff !.personaly im waiting for a trigger to short cable and ftse with longer view trade,but i think its a little way of yet,having said that im not the best thinker at the best of times!!!
i would like to see the daily test that diagnal and hold below,i feel a sunami in the making
We are all waiting for this break. We would go back and forth, imho, as we are around support and then wham we will slice through. It is not easy breaking strong monthly and weekly
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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