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AUD/USD

  • #38,401
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:18am Jan 4, 2012 7:18am
Quoting zodiak
Hi Guys,

i follow ff post regulary...my 2 cents on this topic...i've been watching AudUsd for some time...made pretty nice pips trading it at the end of 2011. I made my analysis afther year end, basicly with monthly and quarterly candles..i see big resistance at 1.0380 and 1.0440 as monthly pivot. Monthly candle is ''hanging man''. I took short position and i plan to build it all the way of quarterly fib retrace at 61,8%....

p.s. sorry for my english
thank you for sharing. when i look at the weekly and monthly charts, they're still within an upward channel. daily chart has also broken out of the triangle.
  • #38,402
  • Jan 4, 2012 9:32am Jan 4, 2012 9:32am
I would like to point out how eur/cad, eur/usd, eur/jpy, eur/aud have lost over 100 ticks this morning but aud/usd is hanging strong in the 103s (for now) in what looks like a bullish flag.

risk on/off not so much with this pair lately. shorts play a dangerous game. eventually, aud will burst upward to test 105s

oh man am I glad i scratched my shorts before y/e lol
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,403
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:09am Jan 4, 2012 10:09am
  • #38,404
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:34am Jan 4, 2012 11:34am
once again for like 8th session in a row aud is stronger than gbp or eur so us might have bought because of a positive trade balance later might see 105 today buy any dip if ur set on buying dont buy eu
  • #38,405
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:20pm Jan 4, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting sidhujag
once again for like 8th session in a row aud is stronger than gbp or eur so us might have bought because of a positive trade balance later might see 105 today buy any dip if ur set on buying dont buy eu
highly agreed.

i am going to go long at next promising dip in this consolidation.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,406
  • Jan 4, 2012 2:30pm Jan 4, 2012 2:30pm
aud showing great strength at the end here.
  • #38,407
  • Jan 4, 2012 2:39pm Jan 4, 2012 2:39pm
are you in right now? i have a limit in at 0330 but i may just go market if it jumps.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,408
  • Jan 4, 2012 2:46pm Jan 4, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting redteamgo
are you in right now? i have a limit in at 0330 but i may just go market if it jumps.
I would wait until RED aud news is over
  • #38,409
  • Jan 4, 2012 3:32pm Jan 4, 2012 3:32pm
AUD/USD @1.0365

Not much to add here AUD captured in the 1.0280 - 1.0440 boundaries.
Play these ranges and be mindful of a break for 80 pips either side. (Those are real pips not pipettes)

EUR/AUD @1.2485

Well there is not much to say except KERCHING !!!
Two benefits here.. The carry trade and the parent eviction notice.

Quite simply a parent has now the affordability to send their squattering child overseas to join the rest of the Aussie bogan backpackers in Europe.
Who knows by the time they come back they could have bought a Greek Island for their parents retirement.

Enjoy..
  • #38,410
  • Jan 4, 2012 3:57pm Jan 4, 2012 3:57pm
why kerching for the eur/aud? i mean right now we're in an awkward position for both euro and aud, so depending on that then we can trade eur/aud pair? i mean i know it in a huge down trend but if we see aud drop and euro rally,
which i think it might in the next 1-2 weeks), then your long? please explain what you meant
  • #38,411
  • Jan 4, 2012 4:43pm Jan 4, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting spardaa12
why kerching for the eur/aud? i mean right now we're in an awkward position for both euro and aud, so depending on that then we can trade eur/aud pair? i mean i know it in a huge down trend but if we see aud drop and euro rally,
which i think it might in the next 1-2 weeks), then your long? please explain what you meant
Well if you had been reading my daily posts you would have noticed that I had been short this little sucker and adding further on a historical break of 1.2900
Technically and fundamentally its a medium term sell.

We have had ample attempts of the AUD collapse and each time failed.
Euro has held up because of repatriation but that is drying up and the real Euro is showing its colours- a shade of brown with a slight stench.

So why do you think AUD will fall and Euro will rally?
  • #38,412
  • Jan 4, 2012 4:46pm Jan 4, 2012 4:46pm
I think unless this news is overly negative AUD won't outfall EUR. Things are looking more and more bullish for AUD, lets see how the rest of the week plays out.
  • #38,413
  • Jan 4, 2012 5:43pm Jan 4, 2012 5:43pm
will aud break 1.0370 today?
  • #38,414
  • Jan 4, 2012 5:53pm Jan 4, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting happytrader
will aud break 1.0370 today?
Nobody knows... At the moment it is going down. We are traders whatever it does we are prepared to take advantage of it

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #38,415
  • Jan 4, 2012 6:04pm Jan 4, 2012 6:04pm
Closed some..GL!
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  • #38,416
  • Jan 4, 2012 6:35pm Jan 4, 2012 6:35pm
i think i aud will fall because it hit some major resistance around the 1.0380 level and there is a clear triangle on my chart . it MAY keep going higher but by the technicals show its more likely to drop down, although the news can always change it.

i think the euro will rally because it has been around 1.3 plus or minus some for quite a while now and hit/hovered around 1.2940 today. the rally is much more likeley after a drop however to last years low of around 1.2880 i tihnk it was?

so if auro goes up and aud goes down i guess our eur/aud will be sky high? especially because its been in a downtrend for ages and i just think it is gonna have quite a big retrace soon? i think in about 2 weeks time the eur/aud will be going up but then again im new to this, anyone feel free to help/advise.
  • #38,417
  • Jan 4, 2012 6:36pm Jan 4, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting spardaa12
i think i aud will fall because it hit some major resistance around the 1.0380 level and there is a clear triangle on my chart . it MAY keep going higher but by the technicals show its more likely to drop down, although the news can always change it.

i think the euro will rally because it has been around 1.3 plus or minus some for quite a while now and hit/hovered around 1.2940 today. the rally is much more likeley after a drop however to last years low of around 1.2880 i tihnk it was?

so if auro goes up and aud goes down i guess our eur/aud...
volume is still rising, don't try to catch the falling knife (euraud)
  • #38,418
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:28pm Jan 4, 2012 7:28pm
opened a quick long at the base of the most recent 1h.. closed for small loss. i would like to think it will bounce off 103 during london and go from there. to the contrary, asian stocks are down which probably really will lead to a dip/more consolidation. we may see a retest of tuesday lows in which case i would go long at 1.0240/50. 200 dma is at 1.0410..
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Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,419
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:38pm Jan 4, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting spardaa12
i think i aud will fall because it hit some major resistance around the 1.0380 level and there is a clear triangle on my chart . it MAY keep going higher but by the technicals show its more likely to drop down, although the news can always change it.

i think the euro will rally because it has been around 1.3 plus or minus some for quite a while now and hit/hovered around 1.2940 today. the rally is much more likeley after a drop however to last years low of around 1.2880 i tihnk it was?

so if auro goes up and aud goes down i guess our eur/aud...
why would do you think the euro rally while the aussie falls? the s&p (to which the aussie has been most correlated lately) has rallied three or four of the last eight days resulting in a euro uptick of marginal heights at best. in fact, the euro has made lower highs for the past 3 months: 13800 in nov, 13600, also in nov, 13500 in dec, and 13200 most recently.... with what, 13100 a day or so ago? i would certainly not go long for anything but a scalp.

the aussie, on the other hand, previously correlated to risk and tracing with the euro on positive and negative equity/news days has become remarkably resilient to bad news in the past few weeks. the moves better correlate with s&p and gold now rather than the risk off plunges that now plague the euro.

having said that, anything could happen!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,420
  • Jan 4, 2012 8:01pm Jan 4, 2012 8:01pm
As long as eu/nzd still going down ..Aussie can not fall too much..
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