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  • #81
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:39pm Jan 2, 2012 6:39pm
Don't worry about it, as long as you're getting stopped out in a profitable position, it is a good trade . There are way too many opportunities to fret over one trade you didn't catch.
  • #82
  • Jan 2, 2012 7:32pm Jan 2, 2012 7:32pm
............... over on the flip side, another target hit, right to the pip with the first bar



Wonder what the EURO will do today, especially later on?
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #83
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:34am Jan 3, 2012 1:34am
Quote
............... over on the flip side, another target hit, right to the pip with the first bar

It's very scary at times how these fib targets hit right to the pip, isn't it?

I know I said I was going to start trading live today, but I was not comfortable with the bank holiday and seeing the low range from yesterday (not a good combination), so I apologize. I am going to monitor the charts tonight for a while to see if we get any retrace and will make a decision at that time, patience is the key.

Those that traded the Eur/Usd and are moving stops after each target, the 161.8 was just hit a few minutes ago . If I had taken my trade, my target @123.6 would have been hit for 12 pips. Because of yesterday's very low range (52 pips), I probably would not have taken the Scalp trade as the target was only 3.5 pips worth of profit and not worth the effort especially after the spread.
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  • #84
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:47am Jan 3, 2012 1:47am
I have new DEMO account with AXI Trader, to demonstrate these trades, but for some reason, the link up with Trade Explorer here isn't connecting....

Solid trade the EUR-USD, as mention before, I am only looking for the Regular Trades
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  • #85
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:05am Jan 3, 2012 2:05am
Quote
I have new DEMO account with AXI Trader, to demonstrate these trades, but for some reason, the link up with Trade Explorer here isn't connecting....

Double check and make sure you're account # and investor password are correct. I had the same issue, but my investor password had 2 numbers reversed. Otherwise, check with Twee and see if there might be other issues at work here.
  • #86
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:47am Jan 3, 2012 3:47am
Happy new year to everyone!!!

I´m really excited about trying live this system, unfortunately I have to finish first some proyects.

I think next Monday could be my first day. I think it´s better to test first just one currency with all sort of trades (Regular, Scalp and Counter) than a lot of currencies with just one type of trades, because this is an all-in-one strategy, all types of trades must work together in order to achieve the best results.

Thanks again Mer
  • #87
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:58am Jan 3, 2012 3:58am
Quoting mer071898
Double check and make sure you're account # and investor password are correct. I had the same issue, but my investor password had 2 numbers reversed. Otherwise, check with Twee and see if there might be other issues at work here.
I put in a query, no answer but doubt if they can help. I know how important these numbers & passwords are, so I always take a shot of them with an iPhone, hence I can zoom in close to read them easily, so pretty sure I am reading & typing them in correctly, thanks for suggestions, probably just open another account
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #88
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:39am Jan 3, 2012 5:39am
Today is full of pips.
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  • #89
  • Jan 3, 2012 6:31am Jan 3, 2012 6:31am
you make people proud ) can you be my teacher ..) i new in world of FX
  • #90
  • Jan 3, 2012 7:26am Jan 3, 2012 7:26am
Hi,

Interesting thread. I think I've seen a similar but a lot more primitive method before, trading breakout of previous day's range. I am not sure if I've missed it in your earlier posts and so have a silly question: what time do you use as a cut off for a trading day? GMT0000 or EST1700?

Thanks.
  • #91
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:29pm Jan 3, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting mer071898
The first part of this trade is going to be the Regular Trade. ......I did a quick glance at several pairs from the first of the year to now to see how often a target would be reached. When visually checking the charts, on average, we would at least hit our first target anywhere from 79-83% of the time (depending on the pair) within 24 hrs. Out of that 17-21% that didn't reach target in 24 hrs., 30-35% would reach target within 48 hrs. By knowing these rough numbers, you can attack the Regular trade several ways. I will list...
Do not you think that option A) Place a single trade and shoot for the first target at the 123.6 extension.....is the best option, (I think a single like 3x1 Lot,it means all 3 trades with only one target first) I know it is good when it take all 3 targets but as you said and I made visual back test myself it's reached first target from 79-83% of the time, but it did not reach second and third target very often, it closes on BE or +5?????
  • #92
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:50pm Jan 3, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting newnew
Do not you think that option A) Place a single trade and shoot for the first target at the 123.6 extension.....is the best option, (I think a single like 3x1 Lot,it means all 3 trades with only one target first) I know it is good when it take all 3 targets but as you said and I made visual back test myself it's reached first target from 79-83% of the time, but it did not reach second and third target very often, it closes on BE or +5?????
Many variables at work here, newnew, the previous day's range sets the 123.6 and other extensions, so the reward will be different each day, and so will the risk.

The way I see it, each trader will use this method to the level of his experience, as the current market conditions also have a lot to do with it; this is why I incorporate the ADR to give me an additional target if the market continues to move in a single direction.

Remember, in 2011, the EURO had 2 days in a row when it was, or close to 300 pips, how do you deal with that? Work out what works for you within your RISK strategy.

And don't forget the GREED factor !!! see this chart

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #93
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:58pm Jan 3, 2012 3:58pm
Quote
Today is full of pips.
Occasionally, you'll had great days like this where everything just falls into place, some days you won't.

Quote
you make people proud ) can you be my teacher ..) i new in world of FX
I wouldn't call me a "teacher" so to speak, but more of a guide. There is a lot more I have to learn about trading to even think about being called a teacher, but thanks for the compliment.

Quote
Hi,

Interesting thread. I think I've seen a similar but a lot more primitive method before, trading breakout of previous day's range. I am not sure if I've missed it in your earlier posts and so have a silly question: what time do you use as a cut off for a trading day? GMT0000 or EST1700?

Thanks.
The method is basically a version of the SRDC 1 method from several years back with a few twists thrown in. Everything starts and ends at your brokers 00:00 GMT time because that is when the indicators reset and we start fresh for the new trading day.

Quote
Do not you think that option A) Place a single trade and shoot for the first target at the 123.6 extension.....is the best option, (I think a single like 3x1 Lot,it means all 3 trades with only one target first) I know it is good when it take all 3 targets but as you said and I made visual back test myself it's reached first target from 79-83% of the time, but it did not reach second and third target very often, it closes on BE or +5?????
That is why I placed those options in order of risk. Option 1 is the least risk to Option 3 (multiple orders) has the most risk. Anytime you put multiple orders in the market you increase your overall risk. Not only by placing multiple Regular trades, but also because you must increase the lot size on your Counter Trend trades to cover any Regular trade losses that may occur. After placing trades in the trade tracker for the last year and based on total profitability, Option 3 has been shown to be the best option though (more risk=more reward). If I had more capital in my live account, I would be trading Option 3, but that is not feasible at this time. You have to choose the right option based on the capital you have available to trade with.
  • #94
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:10pm Jan 3, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting mer071898
That is why I placed those options in order of risk. Option 1 is the least risk to Option 3 (multiple orders) has the most risk. Anytime you put multiple orders in the market you increase your overall risk. Not only by placing multiple Regular trades, but also because you must increase the lot size on your Counter Trend trades to cover any Regular trade losses that may occur. After placing trades in the trade tracker for the last year and based on total profitability, Option 3 has been shown to be the best option though (more risk=more reward)....

Please, can you explain Option 3 , I do not understand how it works?
  • #95
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:14pm Jan 3, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting Erebus
Many variables at work here, newnew, the previous day's range sets the 123.6 and other extensions, so the reward will be different each day, and so will the risk.

The way I see it, each trader will use this method to the level of his experience, as the current market conditions also have a lot to do with it; this is why I incorporate the ADR to give me an additional target if the market continues to move in a single direction.

Remember, in 2011, the EURO had 2 days in a row when it was, or close to 300 pips, how do you deal with that? Work out...

Can you explain how do you use your ADR? I never tried it.
  • #96
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:14pm Jan 3, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting newnew
Do not you think that option A) Place a single trade and shoot for the first target at the 123.6 extension.....is the best option, (I think a single like 3x1 Lot,it means all 3 trades with only one target first) I know it is good when it take all 3 targets but as you said and I made visual back test myself it's reached first target from 79-83% of the time, but it did not reach second and third target very often, it closes on BE or +5?????
newnew, to add to my last post, take time to observe the price action using this system, learn what happens.

This chart is interesting, close is near high of yesterday, a long entry is almost certain, I have things to do today so not trading this, could enter stop orders but I like to be here.

Anyway, as you can see, the ADR and 161.8 are exactly the same to the UP side, while if price did the ADR to DOWN side, there would not even be trade entry - what will happen?

No one knows, but mer has given us the EDGE we need to spot the price action, thanks mer!

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  • #97
  • Jan 3, 2012 6:01pm Jan 3, 2012 6:01pm
I also thank you but your strategy is probably a no win in long run...

I tested much simpler methods and all ended up 1.1 about (Win/loss ratio).

For all readers: Please try to post Win/Loss ratio in future for all new "systems" - it makes it much easier for all.

If you think you can earn money with it, test it back manually at least for 3 Month and you will see what I mean. I AM SURE AT 99% IT WON'T WORK...
I am a half-pro system tester - If market is ranging on your areas your losses will be really big.

Your counter trend strategy only pimp the strategy and vanishes the losses buy fast turning markets but on sidemarkets at theses levels it costs you twice (first: "regular" trade, second: "counter" trade).

Market is to fine tuned to earn money with it... try it or proove me wrong... but good idea and fibs are magic, that's for sure !

May be I'm wrong, I hope so !
  • #98
  • Jan 3, 2012 8:13pm Jan 3, 2012 8:13pm
Quote
Please, can you explain Option 3 , I do not understand how it works?
If you re-read post #2, it states option 3 (C) consists of:

"C) Place multiple trades targeting each individual fib extension, closing the individual trades at each target, moving the stops as we go."

So in essence, you would place 3 Regular trades at the high or low and each trade would target a specific fib extension (123.6, 138.2, and 161.8). The initial stops for each trade is the 50 fib retracement or the CT Trade 3 level. When the first target of 123.6 is reached, you close out that individual trade and move the stops on the 2 remaining trades to BE+ "X" number of pips (the "X" is up you, but I suggest a minimum of +5 pips). When the second target is reached, you close out that individual trade and move the stop on the 1 remaining trades to the 123.6 level and just let the last trade run until it either reaches it's target or stops out at the 123.6 level.

Quote
I also thank you but your strategy is probably a no win in long run...

I tested much simpler methods and all ended up 1.1 about (Win/loss ratio).

For all readers: Please try to post Win/Loss ratio in future for all new "systems" - it makes it much easier for all.

If you think you can earn money with it, test it back manually at least for 3 Month and you will see what I mean. I AM SURE AT 99% IT WON'T WORK...
I am a half-pro system tester - If market is ranging on your areas your losses will be really big.

Your counter trend strategy...
First off, you're entitled to your opinion as I always expect people to come on and not agree with anything that is posted, but it's obvious you haven't grasped the overall concept of the strategy. If you've read through the thread, you would've seen that I posted several spreadsheets with trades that "prove" that this is a profitable system. Just the one in post #24 shows a 5.64% increase on the account in only 3 trading days. And not only that, Erebus has come in and posted several screen shot of successful trades he has made using parts of this system to match his style of trading.

This is not a system that is going to double or triple your account every month (if someone tells you they can, run away!!!), but it does allow for consistent grow over the whole year. When I was visually backtesting (and trust me, I did put in several weeks worth) and putting trades in my trade tracker for the year from all the way back in January, 2011, the account profited over 268% by the end of the year, and this was on just one pair and I didn't increase my base lot sizes to match the increase in equity.

Second, win/loss ratios don't mean sh** if your Risk/Reward ratio is garbage. I can show you systems where they are 85-90% accurate, but lose money because they hit that 10-15% of the time they lose, it's catastrophic. Then I can show you a system where it only wins 50% of the times and will run circles around one with the higher win/loss ratio, so don't get too caught up in that mentality.

I not saying this to be disrespectful, but if you don't feel that this is going to be for you, then just move on and keep the negative comments off the board as I don't want them affect those who do follow the thread. Otherwise, feel free to follow along and watch as I am putting my reputation in the forum on the line by trading this on a live account. I rarely see anyone on this forum (except a select few) that will do that?

And by the way, here is my first night of live trading with my pending orders already in place, just in case you think I'm pulling your leg.
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  • #99
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:33am Jan 4, 2012 12:33am
i think GBP/Usd stop and reavesal at 1.5772 ... we look 4H fibo retracement is are orverbough
  • #100
  • Edited 2:35am Jan 4, 2012 1:20am | Edited 2:35am
Quote
i think GBP/Usd stop and reavesal at 1.5772 ... we look 4H fibo retracement is are orverbough
I'm a little confused, there are no active trades on Gbp/Usd at the moment.
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