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AUD/USD

  • #38,361
  • Jan 3, 2012 6:16am Jan 3, 2012 6:16am
All europe Short AUD, Halleluya
Quoting ragnakore
1.0380 is indeed a strong technical resistance.
if it closes above this level, its gonna be 1.0500 easy.

there are lots of positive data popping left n right SPX future is +22 as of this writing. halleluya HOPE is in the air..

im long aud not for the swap, but for the simple fact that thinks are perceived positive starting the year... im waiting to short EUR though at 1.3150
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #38,362
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:37am Jan 3, 2012 9:37am
Quoting ZenTrading
sorry should have posted chart with thoughts. it is much more helpful. this is the one I am looking at and though nothing set in stone it does assist in position sizing at this current triangle within the larger triangle. hope this is more clear.
Looks a little more obvious now doesn't it? Correlation between S&P and AU has been my reasons for getting and staying long in AU. here's an updated chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU daily2.JPG Size: 151 KB
  • #38,363
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:38am Jan 3, 2012 9:38am
Aud seems to be showing some initial strength today. The market is right up at resistance here.

So, the question is, are we setting a direction for the first part of the year ??

Or, is this a run-up to resistance only to begin a sell-off......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AudDaily1.JPG Size: 90 KB
  • #38,364
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:45am Jan 3, 2012 9:45am
And then this just came out. (A little late to print on the news reel here, but...)

http://blog.fxtechstrategy.com/2012/...ets-10378.html

Seems all eyes are on the 103.80 level today.
  • #38,365
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:21am Jan 3, 2012 10:21am
As it took out the previous daily high, it should retrace, will hold till there is a 15 min retracement of ABC is complete.

Anyone else thinks short too....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #38,366
  • Jan 3, 2012 12:53pm Jan 3, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting rustyram
As it took out the previous daily high, it should retrace, will hold till there is a 15 min retracement of ABC is complete.

Anyone else thinks short too....
Prefer to wait for a retest of 1.0380 line, before taking short.... I know I could miss a good short entry, but I want to make sure it is not just reloading to blow through that line.
  • #38,367
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:34pm Jan 3, 2012 1:34pm
keep shorting noobs lol new high expected soon!

retailers again are shorting this thing like crazy but if you had listened I told you to buy the dips, oil is almost at my target 106 now from low 90's. Maybe hit 150 in a few months
  • #38,368
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:26pm Jan 3, 2012 2:26pm
I'm not saying shorting this rally is not possible but we need to know what we are doing. Otherwise there will be a lot of transfer of wealth. Aussie, nzd, cad all weekly high breakouts. It appears price action is on a mission here...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #38,369
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:27pm Jan 3, 2012 2:27pm
Im short 1.0380..SL 35 pips tp 100 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auu.jpg Size: 47 KB
fokyou forexfactory
  • #38,370
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:27pm Jan 3, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Riskit
Prefer to wait for a retest of 1.0380 line, before taking short.... I know I could miss a good short entry, but I want to make sure it is not just reloading to blow through that line.
Patience always pays...

As you wished it had retested the high, and made a double top and looks like heading down.

Let me know, if u are in short , and where you intend to get out.
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #38,371
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:23pm Jan 3, 2012 3:23pm
AUD/USD @1.0365

The bulls have come out of the gate charging in 2012.
Risk is back on and the world just had a horrible dream in 2011..

More like someone has tapped the sensitive side and got the ball rolling.

Well im not chasing the bus.. Lets just sit back and see how much they want this ride..
Technically it looks positive but we have seen that before.

Res 1.0440 Sup 1.0285 Trade that range in Asia

EUR/AUD @ 1.2585

Just earning the points as this cross slide into the abyss.
  • #38,372
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:01pm Jan 3, 2012 4:01pm
Keep shorting it folks.. the more the heavier it will be.
it will definitely drop hard.
it will drop thousands pips from here.
look greece is preparing exit plans and preparing to print drachma; bear on the loose.
it will drop to 0.50 level. thats right 50 cents!
i guarantee it

.
.
.


the more retail people shorting it, the more it will go up
and right now, there are much more shorts than long.
trend is obviously UP! dont fight trend, ride it up till it stalls!
  • #38,373
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:12pm Jan 3, 2012 4:12pm
how long will the new years hopium rally last for?

i wouldnt short eur/aud. once euro gets worse aud is a risk related currency, remember it went down to 94?

not much movement on the short side, maybe 5-10 pips. looks like it is consolidating at high level

oil price and gold price very high again.

better if u wanna short, short GBPUSD or EURUSD
  • #38,374
  • Jan 3, 2012 4:24pm Jan 3, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting Halba
how long will the new years hopium rally last for?

i wouldnt short eur/aud. once euro gets worse aud is a risk related currency, remember it went down to 94?

not much movement on the short side, maybe 5-10 pips. looks like it is consolidating at high level

oil price and gold price very high again.

better if u wanna short, short GBPUSD or EURUSD
aud is clearly decoupling from the risk relationship, if only temporarily. they are thriving on materials and equities.

as europe gets worse, the aud will appreciate relative to the eur. countries affecting AUD mainly consist of China & India. a big drop in china growth (i.e., instead of 15% growth, only 7% growth) could have a large impact on AUD. however, I believe only 3-4% of australian exports goto china whereas they import about 33% of their crap from china.

long story short, i am looking for a long aud/usd (short term, as i am bullish on dollar & feel usd will regain parity and beyond in 2012) and short eur/aud (long term).
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,375
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:01pm Jan 3, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting Halba
how long will the new years hopium rally last for?

i wouldnt short eur/aud. once euro gets worse aud is a risk related currency, remember it went down to 94?

not much movement on the short side, maybe 5-10 pips. looks like it is consolidating at high level

oil price and gold price very high again.

better if u wanna short, short GBPUSD or EURUSD

Maybe you right, but worth 35 pips to risk for 50-100 pips, k?
fokyou forexfactory
  • #38,376
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:33pm Jan 3, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting redteamgo
aud is clearly decoupling from the risk relationship, if only temporarily. they are thriving on materials and equities.

as europe gets worse, the aud will appreciate relative to the eur. countries affecting AUD mainly consist of China & India. a big drop in china growth (i.e., instead of 15% growth, only 7% growth) could have a large impact on AUD. however, I believe only 3-4% of australian exports goto china whereas they import about 33% of their crap from china.

long story short, i am looking for a long aud/usd (short term, as i am bullish...
I doubt AUD is affected by China/India. If it was, China has dropped about 20% in 2011 while AUD closed flat. AUD is driven by someone else.

I had a chat with a longtime friend (who is in the mining industry); his business is grim looking forward with China stopped buying ore till Q2 he went to China in May and Nov to witness the China housing bubble. Iron (australia's export to China) price dropped alot; Nickle and Chrome (his core business) dropped more than 20% for 2011 . AUD should be 0.8000 if it was China/India correlated.

AUD is driven solely by US Equity (the RISK speculators); this is how I see it going forward. Of course US Equity implies also most of the world's economy including China/India. If US is down, so will the whole world.

I am not a perma AUD bear - just riding the flow; though I prefer USD to strengthen as my FX income is in USD. And right now, as economists draw a nice rosy 2012, I am riding LONG RISK side till the next meltdown.
  • #38,377
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:38pm Jan 3, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting ragnakore
I doubt AUD is affected by China/India. If it was, China has dropped about 20% in 2011 while AUD closed flat. AUD is driven by someone else.

I had a chat with a longtime friend (who is in the mining industry); his business is grim looking forward with China stopped buying ore till Q2 he went to China in May and Nov to witness the China housing bubble. Iron (australia's export to China) price dropped alot; Nickle and Chrome (his core business) dropped more than 20% for 2011 . AUD should be 0.8000 if it was China/India correlated.

AUD is driven...
AUD is a currency so is a riskier vehicle to do the same thing. AUD and China are the same thing right now. China dropped and so did AUD before, just not as much because the drop was sustained and is back isn't it? PMI grew didn't it?

When China goes into a recession then you will see Aud below 0.5. until then it will keep going because of the type of investment it is. The fact that it follows S&P is because everything in US is made in China. When US starts to export more you will see this correlation break.
  • #38,378
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:41pm Jan 3, 2012 5:41pm
For those that are currently long (AUDUSD), just FYI, the USD/JPY pair is starting to go to the earlier levels before the BoJ intervention late last year...

Not sure when that will happen, but I think I should just highlight it anyways.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #38,379
  • Jan 3, 2012 6:05pm Jan 3, 2012 6:05pm
almost nil movement. expected after major 180 pip rally.
  • #38,380
  • Jan 3, 2012 6:09pm Jan 3, 2012 6:09pm
Quoting ragnakore
I doubt AUD is affected by China/India. If it was, China has dropped about 20% in 2011 while AUD closed flat. AUD is driven by someone else.

I had a chat with a longtime friend (who is in the mining industry); his business is grim looking forward with China stopped buying ore till Q2 he went to China in May and Nov to witness the China housing bubble. Iron (australia's export to China) price dropped alot; Nickle and Chrome (his core business) dropped more than 20% for 2011 . AUD should be 0.8000 if it was China/India correlated.

AUD is driven...
I clearly agree that AUD is currently driven by US equities.

Those factors you mentioned above are more or less what I was talking about. the impact of a drop in mining/ag will be felt eventually.
Any prices quoted are futures
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