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Low stress swing trading with momentum

  • #61
  • Dec 27, 2011 1:58pm Dec 27, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting dietcoke
Thanks for sharing your method.

How do you determne stops for a low volatility pair like EURGBP? 300 seems a bit much there.
Please read the first post in this thead it's already been explained there.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #62
  • Dec 27, 2011 7:44pm Dec 27, 2011 7:44pm
OMG I'm down about 115 pips right now for the week from last weeks close. The worlds coming to an end.......

Nope, mabey it isn't. If you average it out across the 22 pairs I have activly trading right now, I'm down 5.3 pips per pair. I'm still positive over 2000 pips in profit I havn't booked yet and anticipating more this week unless the poop hits the fan somewhere..... Like the Italian bond auctions wednesday and thursday.

No positions to add, close or reverse today. I'm going to hold my cards and play my hand.. Patience pays off and I intend to make it pay well.

Poor japanese data today and the markets don't care too much. Asian markets were slightly risk off and now the risk currencies have recovered some of what they lost earlier. I'm seeing some really whippy trading with a glance at some 1 minute charts out of sheer curiosity, especially in the Aussie and Kiwi.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #63
  • Dec 28, 2011 4:12am Dec 28, 2011 4:12am
this is really good, over 10,000pips in a month!!! whaoo, keep it up.
  • #64
  • Dec 28, 2011 8:35am Dec 28, 2011 8:35am
What is take now that the bond sale is over.still holding longs on Gbpusd and Gbpjpy?
  • #65
  • Dec 28, 2011 8:39am Dec 28, 2011 8:39am
Hey P K

Nice to see someone who thinks about there money management and trading plan, YOU know the power of compounding interest..

Sounds like you execute your trading plan with an iron fist as well,
good man....

Good luck in your journal.. Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #66
  • Edited 3:04pm Dec 28, 2011 12:05pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting mikeokino
What is take now that the bond sale is over.still holding longs on Gbpusd and Gbpjpy?
Hmmmm.... Interesting, everything was going good when I glanced at the markets 7 hrs ago before I took my wife to a doctors appointment. I really havn't had time to look into much yet, I've been out of the office all morning.

Bond auctions are not over. A quick look at the news and I see the 2 yr and 6 month auctions came in better than expected but the Italian 10 year which is the big one to watch is tomorrow and It looks like fear and rumors about tomorrows auction is what is driving the market today. GBP looks to be leading the way down in the currencies today.

Of course Iran and the US jawboning over over the Strait of Hormuz isn't helping things either.

I'm still holding all of my positions. It is not unusual to see these nasty moves like today in thin year end liquidity. I don't jump and get scared out of positions on moves like this. Don't be surprised if you get a face ripping rally tomorrow after the auctions are over and the results get published.

The markets often rally or sell off on rumors before a big event and then completely reverse direction after the news is out and it becomes fact hence the terms you will often hear......

"Buy on rumor, sell the fact"
"Sell the rumor, buy the fact"

I kinda like that it's selling off today like it is because the markets are pricing in the bad news already. Don't be surprised if the markets raly tomorrow even on poor Italian bond market results. It doesn't make sense but that is how the markets usually react.

Might be an opportunity to add to a couple positions at a better price but I havn't made a decision on that yet.



ADD: I just found out there were rumors of a sovereign credit ratings downgrade floating around today too.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #67
  • Dec 28, 2011 3:49pm Dec 28, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting PipKiller
Hmmmm.... Interesting, everything was going good when I glanced at the markets 7 hrs ago before I took my wife to a doctors appointment. I really havn't had time to look into much yet, I've been out of the office all morning.

Bond auctions are not over. A quick look at the news and I see the 2 yr and 6 month auctions came in better than expected but the Italian 10 year which is the big one to watch is tomorrow and It looks like fear and rumors about tomorrows auction is what is driving the market today. GBP looks to be leading the way down...
Thanks for sound advice PK, I've closed out my EU and GN trades,not worth risking.
  • #68
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:51pm Dec 28, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting Tedge UK
Thanks for sound advice PK, I've closed out my EU and GN trades,not worth risking.
Staying flat this time of year isn't a bad idea. Market volumes are very thin and it doesn't take much to make some wild swings

Everyone needs to remember that this account is one I am using to test a strategy. I don't test on demo, I test live.

Now that I've had a nap and had my dinner I can focus a little better to try to figure out where the money was moving.

It was definatly dumping of the British Pound that shook up the markets and dragged the Euro down with it. The news is all over the euro down and the US markets falling today buy I ain't buying their BS, it's clearly a GBP and USD move IMHO.... And the S&P500 had been up for the previous 5 sessions in a row so a little pull back after a 5 day bull run really isn't a bad thing... Yet

Here's why I think that it's a GBP and USD move

EUR down vs every major but the GBP.... that's 4 risk off and 3 risk on moves
GBP down vs every major... that's also 4 risk off and 3 risk on moves
USD up vs every major... that's 7 risk off moves.

But the AUD and NZD are both stronger than the EUR and the GBP today and the Euro was stronger than the GBP today... Ummmm..... Hello....... Those are risk on moves.

Now is the market truely risk on or risk off. The truth is that the market has no clear direction to me right now.


I'm sticking to my guns. I'll wait until after tomorrows Italian 10 year bond auction to make any decisions to adjust my positions.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #69
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:25am Dec 29, 2011 5:25am
The euro weakened to a decade low against the yen as Italy sold three- and 10-year government bonds. European shares were little changed and U.S. equity-index futures gained.
The 17-nation euro decreased as much as 0.5 percent versus the yen before trading at 100.39 yen as of 10:35 a.m. in London. Italian 10-year bonds fell, pushing the yield 12 basis points higher to 7.12 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.2 percent. Gold declined to a three-month low.
Italy sold bonds due in 2014 to yield 5.62 percent, down from 7.89 percent at the previous sale on Nov. 29 and priced its 2022 bond to yield 6.98 percent, compared with 7.56 percent on Nov. 29. The European Central Bank said overnight deposits from financial institutions declined from a record high yesterday. Data today may show U.S. pending sales of previously owned homes rose for a second month, while initial jobless claims increased.
“The European problem is going to continue to cause spooks in the market and some spikes in risk aversion,” said Thomas Averill, managing director in Sydney at Rochford Capital, a currency and interest-rate risk-management company. “The moves are exaggerated by the lack of liquidity.”
The euro slid for a fifth day against the yen and earlier reached 100.36, the weakest level since June 2001. The 17-nation currency slipped 0.4 percent to $1.2895 after earlier touching $1.2888, the lowest since Jan. 10.
  • #70
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:31am Dec 29, 2011 5:31am
Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros ($9 billion) of bonds, falling short of the target, as borrowing costs declined in its final debt sale of the year.
The Treasury in Rome sold 2.5 billion euros of securities due in 2014, less than the 3 billion euro maximum for the sale, to yield 5.62 percent, down from 7.89 percent at the previous sale on Nov. 29. The Treasury priced 2.5 billion euros of its 5 percent 2022 bond to yield 6.98 percent, compared with 7.56 percent on Nov. 29. Italy also sold about 2 billion euros of bonds due 2021 and a floating-rate security due 2018.
The sale, which aimed to raise 8.5 billion euros, came one day after Italy auctioned 9 billion euros in treasury bills for 3.251 percent. That was about half the rate from the previous auction on Nov. 25 after the European Central Bank last week offered euro-area banks unlimited funds for three years.
“This is not a bad result at all as demand has held up and the yield on the three-year note has fallen markedly,” Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, said by phone from London. Still, “market pressure is unlikely to abate” because while “the ECB’s new three-year liquidity measures have provided a fillip to Italy’s short-term debt market, they do little to address underlying concerns about creditworthiness.”
  • #71
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:17am Dec 29, 2011 10:17am
Quoting abiolamac
Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros ($9 billion) of bonds, falling short of the target, as borrowing costs declined in its final debt sale of the year.
The Treasury in Rome sold 2.5 billion euros of securities due in 2014, less than the 3 billion euro maximum for the sale, to yield 5.62 percent, down from 7.89 percent at the previous sale on Nov. 29. The Treasury priced 2.5 billion euros of its 5 percent 2022 bond to yield 6.98 percent, compared with 7.56 percent on Nov. 29. Italy also sold about...

Thanks for posting the Italian bond market results.

Basicly the yields were better but the demand for the notes fell a little short of their target.

US Unemployment was slightly worse than expected but US existing home sales and Chicago PMI came in better than expected.

European and US equities markets are rallying today. currency markets are mixed and GBP looks to have been dumped again today dragging the euro with it but the commodity currencies have rallyied along with the safe haven USD and JPY while gold sells of and oil gets hit a little.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #72
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:00pm Dec 29, 2011 4:00pm
What happened to your trade results... Some of us are following you.. Can't see the trades again
  • #73
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:17pm Dec 29, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting abiolamac
What happened to your trade results... Some of us are following you.. Can't see the trades again
I don't know, I havn't changed anything with my platform, account or the forum.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #74
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:40pm Dec 29, 2011 5:40pm
I just come by to say how happy and grateful i am to see someone that actually is "walking the walk" not " talking the talk". You are truly inspiration, and you show to many people here that discipline and patience do pay off big time. Thank you for all that!
  • #75
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:41pm Dec 29, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting abiolamac
What happened to your trade results... Some of us are following you.. Can't see the trades again
The Trade Explorer is visible in PipKiller's profile page. Just click on his name and you will is it at the bottom of the profile.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #76
  • Dec 29, 2011 6:06pm Dec 29, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The Trade Explorer is visible in PipKiller's profile page. Just click on his name and you will is it at the bottom of the profile.
I think forex factory just added a feature to link link or disable the trade explorer on the thread and checked the box to put it back at the top of the page.

They either added that feature or I accidently un-checked it when I fell asleep watching TV with my feet up on the desk LOL.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #77
  • Dec 29, 2011 6:28pm Dec 29, 2011 6:28pm
Quoting teodosy87
I just come by to say how happy and grateful i am to see someone that actually is "walking the walk" not " talking the talk". You are truly inspiration, and you show to many people here that discipline and patience do pay off big time. Thank you for all that!
Thank you for the kind words.

There's no need to fight the markets, risk huge lot size, get all stressed out and stare at charts all day to make some really good money trading. I have a lot better things to do than sit at the desk all day every day.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #78
  • Dec 29, 2011 7:20pm Dec 29, 2011 7:20pm
Overall, I'm pretty much right about where I started for the week in both pips and profit after being slightly underwater wednesday and thursday.

Friday is the last trading day of the week, quarter and the year. Trading may be very whippy tonight and tomorrow.

Today's Italian 3 and 10 year bond auctions were a slight disappointment but we had some good US housing data that well exceeded expectations. Eurozone downgrade rumors once again proved to be just rumors. I don't expect to see them do anything until after the 1st of the year.

Cable once again was dumped and hasn't made much of a recovery.

Economic data is light. Tonight there is China HSBC final manufacturing PMI, tomorrow a little bit of data from Britain and saturday we have China manufacturing PMI which is considered a high impact report. Keep this in mind when deciding to hold any positions through the weekend.

I personally expect whippy trading friday with profit taking and position squaring.

I'm taking a long position in the EUR/CHF. I only trade this pair long on dips since the Swiss put a floor under it at 1.20 Looks like it's posibbly putting in a bottom at 1.2160 right now.

Unless I make a mistake, and yes I think I have done this once or twice, I will only cut this trade at a loss if it breaks below 1.20 otherwise I will hold it waiting for the rumors of the swiss raising the floor to put fear in the market and drive the pair towards 1.24/1.25 again.

Everything else I will hold for now with a close eye on my GBP/JPY trade that isn't going too well to say the least.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #79
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:48am Dec 30, 2011 2:48am
Hey PK!

Nice thread even though its very far from the way I trade.
This is really a question related to this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post5255813) but don't want to add to many posts on questions about the strategy in the Euranalysis thread.

I read you are 55 PIPS something underwater in E$ and have identified a supply demand zone here. Are you incorporating supply demand zones in the strategy?
  • #80
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:20am Dec 30, 2011 3:20am
Hi PK - excellent thread, I will watch with interest as I too look to add more longer term positions......best wishes for 2012
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