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  • #5,781
  • Edited 11:59am Dec 22, 2011 11:39am | Edited 11:59am
I just took a look at the results for +20 I have been tracking so far since the win on 11/30/2011 until today:

London Open: 4 Wins, 8 Losses
New York Open: 0 Wins, 10 Losses

Even with the losses from the NY open, the system is still profitable trading the London Open.

The interesting thing about this, is that this is a 36% win rate...the tests that AlienFrog ran, showed a win rate of somewhere around 30 - 40%...so this seems right on target from the back test.
  • #5,782
  • Dec 22, 2011 3:32pm Dec 22, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting SmartGXL
Tony - not sure what you mean - wasnt today a full +140 Epic Win? I thought that it was?
no it went about 53 pips ...
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,783
  • Dec 22, 2011 3:38pm Dec 22, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting SmartGXL
I just took a look at the results for +20 I have been tracking so far since the win on 11/30/2011 until today:

London Open: 4 Wins, 8 Losses
New York Open: 0 Wins, 10 Losses

Even with the losses from the NY open, the system is still profitable trading the London Open.

The interesting thing about this, is that this is a 36% win rate...the tests that AlienFrog ran, showed a win rate of somewhere around 30 - 40%...so this seems right on target from the back test.
So you had also about 8 BEs total? The only NYO win I had was on 11-30 (central banks intervention). 30% winning rate (TP=20) would be beyond insane, I'd be happy even with 10% that would double your account/yr (given a pretty uniform distribution of winners).
r u ready?
  • #5,784
  • Dec 22, 2011 3:43pm Dec 22, 2011 3:43pm
An important thing that Tony mentioned many times is discipline. One would be tempted to re-enter immediately, don't move the SL to BE, enter based on other patterns or do some other errors, being deluded by the small stop, but don't forget that has maximum load on it! Imo it's advisable to demo this as much as possible before going live.
r u ready?
  • #5,785
  • Dec 22, 2011 7:40pm Dec 22, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting rtrs111
An important thing that Tony mentioned many times is discipline. One would be tempted to re-enter immediately, don't move the SL to BE, enter based on other patterns or do some other errors, being deluded by the small stop, but don't forget that has maximum load on it! Imo it's advisable to demo this as much as possible before going live.
All of that is true. "Maximum load" is well said... we can't mess around with desperate attempts and entries after a loss since we're on a maximum leverage and allowed units. Acting so would quickly disintegrate your whole bank account, something I have done several times in my life.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,786
  • Dec 23, 2011 9:28am Dec 23, 2011 9:28am
For Friday, December 23, 2011:

LO: -2
NYO: -2
  • #5,787
  • Dec 23, 2011 9:43am Dec 23, 2011 9:43am
Quoting rtrs111
So you had also about 8 BEs total? The only NYO win I had was on 11-30 (central banks intervention). 30% winning rate (TP=20) would be beyond insane, I'd be happy even with 10% that would double your account/yr (given a pretty uniform distribution of winners).
You are right, I had it down as a LO win, but you are correct, it is a NYO win. So here are the adjusted totals for the +20 version of the system:



London Open New York Open
11/30/2011 -2 +20
12/1/2011 -2 BE
12/2/2011 BE -2
12/5/2011 -2 BE
12/6/2011 BE -2
12/7/2011 -2 BE
12/8/2011 BE -2
12/9/2011 +20 BE
12/12/2011 -2 -2
12/13/2011 -2 BE
12/14/2011 BE -2
12/15/2011 +20 -2
12/16/2011 BE -2
12/19/2011 -2 BE
12/20/2011 -2 -2
12/21/2011 -2 -2
12/22/2011 +20 -2
12/23/2011 -2 -2

Wins 3 1
Losses 10 10
BE 5 6
  • #5,788
  • Dec 23, 2011 10:00am Dec 23, 2011 10:00am
Quoting rtrs111
An important thing that Tony mentioned many times is discipline. One would be tempted to re-enter immediately, don't move the SL to BE, enter based on other patterns or do some other errors, being deluded by the small stop, but don't forget that has maximum load on it! Imo it's advisable to demo this as much as possible before going live.
Yep... totally agree...
sometime discipline is harder than determining the trend...
  • #5,789
  • Dec 23, 2011 10:06am Dec 23, 2011 10:06am
Based on the above numbers, the system is up approximately 8%, across 19 trading days. This is including the NYO results, which have been terrible, and I would think that these would improve.

The LO results seem to match up with what AlienFrog's test showed, that it tends to win, on average, around once per week. Looking back at his spreadsheet, I see that sometimes it would win sometimes twice, and even occasionally, three times per week, but there was a 6-week period where it did not hit at all. It is possible that the NYO is going through a similar period at this time.
  • #5,790
  • Dec 23, 2011 10:27am Dec 23, 2011 10:27am
Quoting SmartGXL
Based on the above numbers, the system is up approximately 8%, across 19 trading days. This is including the NYO results, which have been terrible, and I would think that these would improve.

The LO results seem to match up with what AlienFrog's test showed, that it tends to win, on average, around once per week. Looking back at his spreadsheet, I see that sometimes it would win sometimes twice, and even occasionally, three times per week, but there was a 6-week period where it did not hit at all. It is possible that the NYO is going through...
Hi SmartGXL,
Quite possible, although we need a lot of forward testing or reliable back testing to draw an accurate conclusion. Still, 16% winning rate is very impressive. Btw, I went long today and got stopped. Spread was 1.7.
r u ready?
  • #5,791
  • Dec 23, 2011 10:52am Dec 23, 2011 10:52am
Quoting SmartGXL
Based on the above numbers, the system is up approximately 8%, across 19 trading days. This is including the NYO results, which have been terrible, and I would think that these would improve.

The LO results seem to match up with what AlienFrog's test showed, that it tends to win, on average, around once per week. Looking back at his spreadsheet, I see that sometimes it would win sometimes twice, and even occasionally, three times per week, but there was a 6-week period where it did not hit at all. It is possible that the NYO is going through a...
Guys, I've been following all the posts in the thread even though not posting myself lately. I'm really glad you found my testing useful and that you guys are successfully testing in real time.

I just want to remind you that those tests were very informal and not super accurate. Please be careful what you read into it. I would hate for anyone to lose real money by basing a trade strategy on it.

However... The good news is that I have downloaded a whole lot of tick data from Dukascopy. I have been playing with the MT4 import procedure and Josh's EA. So soon I will have some test results that I consider reliable enough to bet some money on! Maybe next week or the week after, depends on family schedule over the Christmas holidays.

Mega pips to all! And Merry Christmas to all!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,792
  • Dec 23, 2011 11:15am Dec 23, 2011 11:15am
Quoting rtrs111
Hi SmartGXL,
Quite possible, although we need a lot of forward testing or reliable back testing to draw an accurate conclusion. Still, 16% winning rate is very impressive. Btw, I went long today and got stopped. Spread was 1.7.
Yes, spread was high today.

I think we have enough accurate testing to move forward with the London Open, thanks to AlienFrog. His detailed analysis of the tick data for the London Open for one year, to find the results of the +20 system, are extremely valuable, as they are showing that the system at the LO time frame is profitable. I have been trading the NY Open with live funds, but I may stop that, and just trade it in the Oanda Practice account for 2 or 3 months until I get a feel to see if the performance matches the LO or not. I would think that the performance would match the LO over the long term.

We also have to remember that the month of December is a tough month for most trading systems.
  • #5,793
  • Dec 23, 2011 11:27am Dec 23, 2011 11:27am
SL very tight

TP very very very large (more than 100 pips minimum)

This is the right way

If I didn't destroy my accounts gambling with Oanda compulsive trading, I'd be rich today

Just my 2 cents
Don't give up
  • #5,794
  • Dec 23, 2011 1:00pm Dec 23, 2011 1:00pm
As of this writing I still have about 60pages of reading to go, and I must say I like Tony's method. A few weeks ago I forced myself to get back to the demo with a focus on riding the market open movements. I stumbled upon this thread which fit perfectly with my plans and I plan on implementing it myself. Happy weekend everyone.
-Dmac
  • #5,795
  • Dec 23, 2011 2:18pm Dec 23, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting dmacattack
As of this writing I still have about 60pages of reading to go, and I must say I like Tony's method. A few weeks ago I forced myself to get back to the demo with a focus on riding the market open movements. I stumbled upon this thread which fit perfectly with my plans and I plan on implementing it myself. Happy weekend everyone.
-Dmac
Tony's method really is awesome, you just have to be prepared for loooong periods where there are no wins. There was a 2+ month period of time last year where the +140 did not hit. You have to be psychologically prepared to go months with no win, and in addition, you have to have funds available at the end of the week, so that you can top off your account, otherwise your available margin (aka available units) dwindles away, leaving you unable to score a win large enough to offset the losses taken during the losing streak.

Some of the years in the past (2008 was a good example), it seemed like +140 Epic Wins occurred on a very regular basis, two or three times per week, during the first financial crisis, when the ADR was much higher; now they occur once a month or so. The current ADR for the EURUSD seems to be around 100 pips, and there seems to be some indication that periods of time where the ADR is higher, is going to yield more Epic Wins than other times. Someone posted a comment many pages back, where they mentioned that there may have been a year or two where there were only 2 or 3 Epic Wins.

So I think what I am going to do, eventually, is trade the +20 version, but set aside additional funds for the +140 as well, or, possibly start using a Trailing Stop so that I can possibly collect more than 20 pips on very fast moves up.
  • #5,796
  • Dec 23, 2011 5:12pm Dec 23, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Guys, I've been following all the posts in the thread even though not posting myself lately. I'm really glad you found my testing useful and that you guys are successfully testing in real time.

I just want to remind you that those tests were very informal and not super accurate. Please be careful what you read into it. I would hate for anyone to lose real money by basing a trade strategy on it.

However... The good news is that I have downloaded a whole lot of tick data from Dukascopy. I have been playing with the MT4 import procedure and Josh's...
Thanks for all your hard work, Alien! Merry Christmas and Mega Pippage to you as well!
  • #5,797
  • Dec 24, 2011 1:05pm Dec 24, 2011 1:05pm
Merry Christmas everyone!
r u ready?
  • #5,798
  • Dec 25, 2011 8:33am Dec 25, 2011 8:33am
Merry Christmas
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,799
  • Dec 25, 2011 7:22pm Dec 25, 2011 7:22pm
Hope everyone had a great Christmas!

Just curious, should we be trading this tomorrow morning (Dec 26)?

The reason I wonder, is because even though the Forex market will be open, the markets here in the US will be closed because Christmas fell on a Sunday, therefore the holiday is observed on Monday, and in the UK, it is Boxing Day, so I am not sure it is worth placing a trade at all, if the markets are going to be very quiet.

Tony - what say you?
  • #5,800
  • Dec 26, 2011 7:26am Dec 26, 2011 7:26am
Quoting SmartGXL
Hope everyone had a great Christmas!

Just curious, should we be trading this tomorrow morning (Dec 26)?

The reason I wonder, is because even though the Forex market will be open, the markets here in the US will be closed because Christmas fell on a Sunday, therefore the holiday is observed on Monday, and in the UK, it is Boxing Day, so I am not sure it is worth placing a trade at all, if the markets are going to be very quiet.

Tony - what say you?
No trading, NY open does not happen... Wall Street's market is resting
Invest in alarm clocks
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