No Loss Strategy? | Forex Factory

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No Loss Strategy?

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 20, 2011 7:10pm Dec 20, 2011 7:10pm
Hello Traders, wondering if it is possible to have a no loss strategy or is it a only a fantasy to believe or hope there is a no loss strategy?

As all strategies including successful traders strategy does includes loss but they just know how to cut their losses and run their profits with good money management?

What's your say?
  • #2
  • Dec 20, 2011 8:56pm Dec 20, 2011 8:56pm
There are people who don't use stop-losses, but I wouldn't call them no-loss strategies. I call them one-loss strategies, meaning you only lose once then you are finished - these strategies often seem successful because people who suffer that one loss usually don't come back to tell their tale. Without stop-loss you can be wiped out by unforeseen events such as economic collapses, wars, earthquakes, tsunamis and central bank interventions.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Dec 20, 2011 9:19pm Dec 20, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting numbnuts
............Without stop-loss you can be wiped out by unforeseen events such as economic collapses, wars, earthquakes, tsunamis and central bank interventions.
Indeed true of above said......thanks for enlightening me.


I wonder how traders can trade without stop loss and still be successful. Is it possible?

Anyway thanks for sharing numbnuts. Hmm...that also makes me think about traders using EA bots...hmm...I'm going to start a new thread about EA Bot and Manual trading for discussion and please do join in and share your views.
  • #4
  • Dec 20, 2011 11:31pm Dec 20, 2011 11:31pm
Yes, trading without stoploss can make us successful overnight, you could double your account very fast.
But it depends on the God, if he says: "oh man, I love you, your account will be doubled!", we will win.
But if it's a bad day for him, he says: "ha ha, you've just taken a foolish trade, you account with be wiped!", you know, we will lose everything.
So don't dream about that kinda perfect strategy, this's an imperfect world.
  • #5
  • Dec 21, 2011 12:25am Dec 21, 2011 12:25am
There's many no loss strategies... Until that one time that they lose
Time hides Nothing
  • #6
  • Dec 21, 2011 12:27am Dec 21, 2011 12:27am
Quoting numbnuts
There are people who don't use stop-losses, but I wouldn't call them no-loss strategies. I call them one-loss strategies, meaning you only lose once then you are finished - these strategies often seem successful because people who suffer that one loss usually don't come back to tell their tale. Without stop-loss you can be wiped out by unforeseen events such as economic collapses, wars, earthquakes, tsunamis and central bank interventions.
one-loss strategy. numbnuts, that is the most elegant description i have heard up to this point in time in my life. no-stop hero's are the champions of trading until they fuck up and implode, or forever struggle to dig themselves out of a hole they find themselves in one day.... then of course it's always the fault of their 'ego' or 'bad psychological issue they are working on'... never that they are sub-breakeven traders. their string of no losses prevents them from being accepting that they are 'shit traders with no edge'.

one-loss... that's golden.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #7
  • Dec 21, 2011 1:58am Dec 21, 2011 1:58am
Quoting dvc11
Hello Traders, wondering if it is possible to have a no loss strategy or is it a only a fantasy to believe or hope there is a no loss strategy?

As all strategies including successful traders strategy does includes loss but they just know how to cut their losses and run their profits with good money management?

What's your say?
Someone who searching for no loss strategy will never find any strategy.
the one will ended up stress, cause he never find it, cause it never exist.

if someone still have this mindset, no loss mindset - he will never win.
stop loss heard likes he will make trader loss, he sounds like a bastard, isn't it. but in point of fact, he has save trader from trader's own mistake so trader have another chance to make money,
Stop loss will save trader's ass more than twice, stop loss is trader's best friend.

if we are wrong we must admit it, and cut the loss as short as possible
when we let our loss run, and show us a huge floating loss, we have lose our mental capital or trading psychology. and day by day we will ended up stress wait for the price to reverse.
accept failures as a step towards victory.

Best regards,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #8
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:36am Dec 21, 2011 3:36am
Quoting nubcake
one-loss strategy. numbnuts, that is the most elegant description i have heard up to this point in time in my life. no-stop hero's are the champions of trading until they fuck up and implode, or forever struggle to dig themselves out of a hole they find themselves in one day.... then of course it's always the fault of their 'ego' or 'bad psychological issue they are working on'... never that they are sub-breakeven traders. their string of no losses prevents them from being accepting that they are 'shit traders with no edge'.

one-loss... that's...
i used to be a no stop loss champion, and thankfully i never blew up, i got my way out of messes however as a man i must admit i was wrong.

here is my reasoning for it which i posted in TAF thread and i got banned

in my testing i am putting my money management ideas through the worst possible conditions to see if they hold up.

i am using random chart generators, to test our money management and i have found more often than not that averaging down exponentially increases our risk exposure and it is actually statistically proven to blow accounts at times with completely random price feed.

(i do accept that price is not random, but testing it in the worse possible scenario gives a better picture of risk assessment)

i have found that Jessie Livermore's approach to it i actually very safe.

trade less= less mathematical probability against you
enter at extreme points = pivotal points
and using a stop loss away from volatility by taking into account standard deviations and Average ranges with an initial position like fti (scout)

and letting it ride, while observing the market for changes, as well as his rule of NEVER AVERAGE DOWN
ALWAYS AVERAGE UP, i found this through money management, risk assessment testing to be very profitable.

if you enter a scout and you are wrong you increase your risk, and your commitment to a bad trade by averaging down.
conversely if you enter with a scout and the market is moving in your favor, now you have riks money obtained from the market to attempt to maximize profits, and your commitment to a potentially devastating trade decreases.

a well placed stop is actually more of a safety mechanism in a random market than naked exposure to risk.
__________________
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #9
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:43am Dec 21, 2011 3:43am
I love to see no loss strategy but I don't think I can find one. What I can do is to limit my losses.
  • #10
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:50am Dec 21, 2011 3:50am
If you can trade with a strategy that has a stop loss and a 70% win rate expectancy based on 10-15 years worht of backtesting, stop there.

You have all you need, go out and make a packet.

Trying to edge that up any further is futile as i'm not altogether convinced that it's achievable long term. One of the lesser talked about truisms of trading is that you don't even need to win half or more of your trades to make it. A 30% win rate can be enough if you're adept at holding your winners and cutting your losers short.

An abolute must, a basic fundemental of learning the business is dealing with, expecting and accepting losses. There's no other way IMO.
  • #11
  • Dec 21, 2011 3:57am Dec 21, 2011 3:57am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting dvc11
Hello Traders, wondering if it is possible to have a no loss strategy or is it a only a fantasy to believe or hope there is a no loss strategy?
In answer to your intial question is it possible to have a no lose strategy - yes, any system them comes out on top is a sytem that has not lost, whether you take a single trade or 1000 trades if you come out of it with a single pip of profit then it's a no lose strategy - - it's profitable.

In answer to the more relivant question of can you have a No Stop Lose strategy - that requires somewhat more definition

A stop lose is simply a method of exiting a trade in the same way that a take profit is - would you enter a trade without thinking about it's exit. if you answer yes to that then you will fail in the forex world.

however dose the system have to include a stop lose in the traditional sense, where by you place a fix stop when you intially enter the trade - No not at all, it's quit possible to to trade a system and never place a stop - but you must have a plan to exit a trade be it good or bad, you must know when the entry conditions have failed and the trade is no longer valid.

i trade a system that has no fixed stops, trades via three different tf's and is sometimes hedge - for most this is seen as madness. but to me it's my way, i know my tp's and exits and points at which i will flip a trade.

so in my view no system is ever without an exit so therefore they all have a stop lose - a position at which the trade is exited.

exits are the most important part of any trading system - without them the entry has no point.
  • #12
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:06am Dec 21, 2011 4:06am
Quoting the redlion
trade less= less mathematical probability against you
enter at extreme points = pivotal points
and using a stop loss away from volatility by taking into account standard deviations and Average ranges with an initial position like fti (scout)

and letting it ride, while observing the market for changes, as well as his rule of NEVER AVERAGE DOWN
ALWAYS AVERAGE UP...
Sounds a lot like the way I trade, have you checked out my thread in trading systems?

edit: not trying to advertise or promote, but would always appreciate advice/criticism
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #13
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:12am Dec 21, 2011 4:12am
no i haven't checked it out.

i am very analytic and logical and i understand that the market is directional, volatility based binary system with transactions only plotted in the chart that can CLUE me in where the prevalence in orders is. HOWEVER the market is very much a random walk created by information derived from orders...although the orders are executed by humans which all have different reasons or analysis of the macro economic picture. Some market movers ARE active participants of the economic picture. All i go by is the record of their transactions AKA a chart, and news of the macro economic situation.

so my job is to align myself in the same direction, but not pay a high price for it.
and i also understand the RISK i incur every time i speculate.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #14
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:25am Dec 21, 2011 4:25am
I agree that the market is dominated most of the time by random walk theory, and a lot of the time it is impossible to tell if price action is random or biased. I only trade when I can tell with reasonable certainty that current price action is more biased than random, which means placing entry orders at levels which are very unlikely to get hit unless some directional bias comes along which is strong enough to overcome randomness. I am out of the market more than I am in it.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #15
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:30am Dec 21, 2011 4:30am
i am more in it than out of it

my hypothesis is that the direction is clearly not random, the price variations, or movement withing that direction is due to the orders being executed creating volatility within an environment that has prevalence in commitment of money influx

i subscribe to a average dispersion theory. that is why i like Standard Deviations
we all know that market oscillates but not like a perfect wave with symmetrical amplitude and magnitude.

but i think analysis is only 1/4th of the equation the other equally but important factors are

money management
psychology
luck
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #16
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:33am Dec 21, 2011 4:33am
of course no one wants to admit luck is even in the picture as WE ALL IN FF ARE SKILLED AND TALENTED MONEY MANAGERS WITH INCREDIBLY SUPERIOR INTELLECT purely is skill and not luck

however they do say that people create their own luck, although luck in itself is in need of those that seek it, those that persevere due have a funny way of attaining it.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #17
  • Dec 21, 2011 4:40am Dec 21, 2011 4:40am
Quoting the redlion
analysis is only 1/4th of the equation the other equally but important factors are

money management
psychology
luck
I agree, I think MM is as important as, if not more important than picking entries. Good MM and psychology will make money with an average system, bad MM or psychology will go broke with even the best system.

The greater direction may be more biased than random, but it contains a hell of a lot of randomizing events on smaller timeframes which can be severe enough to blur the big picture.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #18
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:18am Dec 21, 2011 5:18am
so no luck lol
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:28am Dec 21, 2011 5:28am
If you trade with the trend, NO LOSS!!!
If against the trend, FOREVER LOSS!!!!!
  • #20
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:44am Dec 21, 2011 5:44am
Quoting the redlion
of course no one wants to admit luck is even in the picture as WE ALL IN FF ARE SKILLED AND TALENTED MONEY MANAGERS WITH INCREDIBLY SUPERIOR INTELLECT purely is skill and not luck

however they do say that people create their own luck, although luck in itself is in need of those that seek it, those that persevere due have a funny way of attaining it.
I buy luck.

There is a tendancy to believe that if you've won a trade, it's all down to you and your amazing chart reading skills. Actually, part of it is always luck because no entry has a 100% chance of success so there has to be an element of "getting lucky" about it as well.

If I had to put a value on it, I would say lucky is mayber 10-15% of the business.
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