james16 Chart Thread

Hey G

As above be very very careful I get might nervous seeing you guys on the lower timeframes. This is a very small bar with a weak close. This bar has a "bounce" look rather then very strong selling. I like you look at the parity level though that is very good. But the lower timeframes can get you quick b/c you have to process the information quicker. If that bar say was a beob below that range of bars that would be a much better scenario and show power. Just cause we have a "tail" on a bar don't be fooled that it means reversal we want to dig deeper and really analyze the bar and situation

Best
Mike

bought...





stop below BRN 1.4500

i should get my stop to be in 9/10 cases here.... gonna trail it when im 50 in profit,

lets c

I supposed a Beob engulfing 8 prior bars was a good setup

can you see why we stalled here G

Remember the bars are great, I am glad to see you taking a beob that engulfs a large range. That will be good for you. BUT remember the most important is the story/confluence/location on when we should take them, and how to manage them. I think as humans we have a tendency to get over attached to our trades. I do it too, I just do it less over the years with more time and practice.

Best
Mike

Pin Bar

Stop Loss

The third one for today

Hey G

This is not a pinbar but a BUOB at a swing high.

We want bullish pinbars at swing lows. Also I think you are focusing too much in on the bars. I really recommend going back to square one here with the j16 minimum requirements of the daily /weekly. This will prevent you from just jumping in on anything you think qualifies.

Stick to the great bars at great locations. The ones that stand out. They might be more rare but you MUST learn to be discipline to wait for them or you will get your account depleted very quickly on these lower timeframes.

Please don't take this as me talking down, I truly care and that's why we warn you guys about some of these pitfalls.

I say this often but I beg those of you struggling in a similar way to cease trading that way and go back to those daily and weekly charts. Give yourself 2-3 trades ONLY to take for a month. Sit and wait and wait and wait some more. Then when you can see what a few good trades can do over time you can add more as you build your repertoire.

If you would like some examples of stand out trades please let me know G

Best
Mike

Gonna spring board off these posts G. This is a general post to the many new traders that will see it.

I know we may be words on a screen, but I promise you the sincerity we have when we use the above words. It's not to stunt anyone or tell anyone it's the only way. But those that are sitting here continuously struggling you must break this cycle. You must demo. You must treat this as a serious business it is.

PLEASE read post 1
PLEASE read all of James16 posts
Please re-read post 1 and demo demo demo


I have included some charts. I am not trying to make this sound easy. It's a tough business but we make it much harder on ourselves. As Jim always says its what is in between our ears stopping most of us. This is true in all aspects of life I firmly believe. I wish I could go back ten years and do it this way.


Start with the basics and work your way up. This is a very very very long marathon most of us are running here.

I hope this helps someone
Mike

You might want to rethink using metatrader, someone from inside a brokerage has posted some videos about how it can be used to spike prices, create slippage and change order prices. The guy has been banned already from FF.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...s-setting.html

http://www.youtube.com/user/EcnJesus

yes, definitely, thankyou - I had analysed my gold "stuff up" using Bemac's ICCE indicator (and a bit of common sense that I didn't have then), but not J16 until now - yet another amazing "coincidence" lol !!

thanks again!
Cath

Like the look of this daily BUEOB, if it can get above the 50 fibo and these consolidation boxes.

Hey guys what do you think about this one ?
I know it's H4 and I try to do only daily/weekly - but this one worked out well. There was 50 FIB, BRN, LTL confluence and there was a small pinbar on H1.

1.4500 protected as expected.... TL respected as well...i expect this to lift up again next week, holding lons with stop below 1.4500.

gonna approach 9300 area next week ...and ill place my long ;p

Looks interesting though..
lovely location..if it works 1.3640 obvious FTA.
but something just not clicking my mind.

pressure is too much on the downside..
a "lil more bigger" BUOB wuld have been better..

i will check out how Monday Opening takes place..
either i pass it or will take a retrace entry at previous bar high(1.35) for comfortable trade management & Tight SL

I totally agree with you Steve and what follows in this post is not to contradict you or put you down for your opinion.

Last couple of months I have been involved in a rather interesting study. BTW it really is my favorite time pass. Picking up little (yet important) things being taught around larger concepts and dissecting them through all the layers to see how deep they go.

The implications of what Mike talks about with respect to good outside bars engulfing a range of bars and good pin bars protruding away from the vicinity of PA are ENORMOUS. They have enough value to help you develop profitable systems around just the very concept.

Your post Steve, got me going, because while you did a great job explaining the merits of the setup, its missing this one very important factor of the low not stretching enough to test the vacant space underneath that range

***---***

NEWBIES PAY ATTENTION

***---***

Why do you think it is so important for a pin bar to be located at a swing point with a nose pointing right into vacant space as apposed to being caught in traffic and congestion areas? Why do you think An outside bar with a long wick that tests the area beyond preceding range of bar highs/lows more important than any other kinds of outside bars?

This is not new information and people who've been with the group for some time probably already know of it, and have been talking about it here and there, thought I'd assimilate it into a post for everybody's good.

Markets primarily run along demand and supply principles running like fresh blood in large orders (The much famous order flow) thrown in and out of the markets by the big players who know their game left right and center. What we refer to as PPZs and swing points are areas of interest developed over time because they represent instances in the past where demand heavily took over supply (support) or vice versa (resistance).

Markets have this inevitable tendency to thrive - literally live off these areas. Pull up any chart and if you know anything about support and resistance you would know most of that chart is made up of examples where price has either held or has broken through an area of support and resistance.

Let's take up a scenario similar to what Steve discussed in the quoted post. We're not looking at a specific PA bar here, we're looking a little deeper into the general market dynamics, and what makes most of Mike's A+ setups work "magically well"

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j209/ghous/chart.png

The orange line on this CHF/JPY daily chart represents the PPZ. A J16 trader would have it on the chart and would be eagerly watching for bullish PA off the level, correct? Many would want a PA setup off the PPZ, and would gladly except a tail stretching down into vacant space underneath as a confluence factor much like they would look at fibs or divergence at the time., but I am here to tell you that the marked blue area is extremely important. AN A+ PA SETUP WOULD BE ONE THAT GOES ON TO TEST THE IMMEDIATE AREA BEYOND THE PPZ/SWING HIGH/LOW IN THE AREA AND NOT JUST DELINEATE A BOUNCE OFF THE PPZ LINE/SWING POINT ITSELF. Do you notice the point where price decides to venture underneath the orange line and the velocity with which it rejects and the marvelous extent to which this bullish aggression is able to sustain itself? No rocket science here, just the understanding of a fundamental concept that the best PA setups (i.e the ones which generate your runners) will often leave faint (and sometimes very obvious) marks of false breakouts in the opposite direction

Does waiting for a bearish outside bar that takes out all the highs before it goes down to close strongly on a bearish note make more sense than blindly jumping onto any BEOB that forms at the 50 fib ret?

You can significantly cut down on your bad trades if you ingrain this concept right now, take some time to read back again and again to absorb this, but understand that that this often underestimated concept is what can make a mediocre pin bar do wonders and the lengthiest of pin bars fail you. I am on my way to develop an entire system just off this basic pattern but talking on those lines would again steer the thread in the wrong direction so I'd better keep it all applicable and relevant.

Spend some chart time looking for situations where price blows through significant swing highs and swing lows and obvious PPZ areas and gets violently rejected back into them and the aftermath. Start eagerly looking for these scenarios in your J16 trades along with other confluence. Wow - this stuff always finds a way to amaze you, love it.

***---***

Coming back to your post Steve, and the setup you shared. The setup along with all its plus points that you outlined is totally valid but like Mike would say a tail extending further down south would have made this a real A+ trade. Again not to dump the setup but to comment on the extent of its validity.

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j209/ghous/chart2.png

Have a nice weekend and a a very merry Christmas to all those who celebrate it. May 2012 bring lots of prosperity and joy to you and your loved ones.

g.

Hey trc, always try and analyze setups regardless of their results. Its easier said than done which is why traditional back testing has serious limitations.

Although there was confluence the way we like it, the size of the bar was very small, it was barely a BUOB. Remember we prefer our bars to be nice and big so they jump put real nice off of key locations.

Some parts of the puzzle won't make the picture, we need every single piece!

g.

Here's a quick chart showing what an A+ BUOB should be able to achieve. . .

(food for thought: can you spot another setup on the chart that tick marks this condition I rambled about?)

g.

with what u have rambled about()..

well then 2nd pin looks better than the 1st Pin..

nice posts G.

i agree with ur post 100%...
but for many others its the location matters and not the shape.
im sure there are.

lets say a Mini-Pin for this example.

Shape:Average.
Location:Lovely.
Bias:Uptrend..

(and bit of timing factor )

these bars are enough for to act as a 'sign' where is price heading or maybe even take a TT here.

just my thoughts.

EDIT:ah, i see you were focusing more on newbies,but still good to have such a discussion no?

Great post there Ghous


Very informative and sets the wheels in my mind in motion.

I can see what you are getting at, the fake out before the move in the true direction, taking out SL's and adding to buyers thrust.
Good to get some info on market dynamics.

Actually, while I was not thinking so much about the fake out in the other direction nor bar size, the close of this BUEOB was concerning me, in as much as, it closed below those two consolidation areas.

Thanks again for a great post Ghous