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Domino's Price and order flow trading

  • #1,341
  • Sep 16, 2011 1:34pm Sep 16, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting havaiana
Thanks

lots of compression in AUD/JPY and AUD/USD going in to asia this morning. A break below 250 in AUD/USD could run for a bit a give a good price to look for longs after the dust settles.
right im watching these too.. lookin for under parity for new longs..
Quote
One more question Domino regarding AUD:

"In the 12-month rate outlook, we see the market is now pricing in a 141 bps of rate cuts and it further fully expects at least a 25 bps rate cut at its next meeting" (this is just a quote from dailyfx, the market is factoring in about a 20% chance of a cut next meeting in my opinion)

Does this sort of stuff mean you would hold off on longs or keep chasing the yield?
no one knows what the market is exactly pricing in.. people look to these sites because they dont understand the movements.. and they feel the need to understand why the trade didnt work.. dailyfx makes its money from viewership and ads.. they have no idea what is being priced in.. as per the rate cut.. the aussy generally doesn't slash rates right away like the us.. the hold for a while feel out the economic climate they hold up to 2 years generally while everyone is freaking out.. if aussies are falling and rates are holding odds are the aud has no reason to cut.. because the purpose of a cut is already being filled naturally.. what im saying is dont anticipate a cut or not.. wait for it to occur.. the aud/usd is divergent at this part and its not a good idea to short... or cut longs ness. just look for good new cheap opportunity.
  • #1,342
  • Sep 21, 2011 6:03pm Sep 21, 2011 6:03pm
Thanks for the info Domino, exactly what i was after. Just curious, how did you learn trading, self taught or had a mentor, worked for financial institution? Were the guys you work with traders before they worked with you or did you teach them?

I've found i can get a pretty good idea of what the market is pricing in by using sports bookies, not that i use it for taking trades, just gives me a pretty good idea what to expect. Alot of sports bookies use betfair as a central exchange so it is a pretty good indicator. You can be sure that the gambling traders wont let the odds get too far off the mark. See attachment, there isn't enough money in the market yet this far off the rate decision to get any real info from it, but you get the idea

AUD/USD parity not far off now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct interest rate AUD.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #1,343
  • Sep 21, 2011 6:41pm Sep 21, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting havaiana
Thanks for the info Domino, exactly what i was after. Just curious, how did you learn trading, self taught or had a mentor, worked for financial institution? Were the guys you work with traders before they worked with you or did you teach them?
no problem. I suppose I am self taught.. I went to school for finance..been behind trading screens since I was 16.. I argued with my finance teachers since I started finance school .. I joined a "trading arcade" for a bit.. grinded for a while doing day trading.. broke out opened my own shop.. unique design private equity.. I look for very specific things in my traders.. most of them have never traded before.
Quote
I've found i can get a pretty good idea of what the market is pricing in by using sports bookies, not that i use it for taking trades, just gives me a pretty good idea what to expect. Alot of sports bookies use betfair as a central exchange so it is a pretty good indicator. You can be sure that the gambling traders wont let the odds get too far off the mark. See attachment, there isn't enough money in the market yet this far off the rate decision to get any real info from it, but you get the idea

AUD/USD parity not far off now...
I have some stuff similar to that..

yeah im looking under parity wont be too long im hoping for mid .9000's or so maybe .9700 will be my initial eye.. start watching the price action around there..
  • #1,344
  • Sep 22, 2011 7:26am Sep 22, 2011 7:26am
Quoting domino
right im watching these too.. lookin for under parity for new longs..
almost there first ops at 94 im thinkin well watch the patterns
  • #1,345
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:42pm Oct 1, 2011 2:42pm
where is the DATA for SEPT. on the HM TREASURY website
  • #1,346
  • Oct 4, 2011 10:06am Oct 4, 2011 10:06am
shifted into neutral here.. ill be watching for developing pa for long entries.. from 94, 9250, or 8800 we'll need it to compress before longs can develop I dunno how much capitulation we'll get at these levels.

just exited shorts
  • #1,347
  • Oct 7, 2011 5:54am Oct 7, 2011 5:54am
Quoting domino
almost there first ops at 94 im thinkin well watch the patterns
Sick call, doesn't get much better than that

Hope you're on, i missed it, thought there was still more to go
  • #1,348
  • Oct 7, 2011 9:18am Oct 7, 2011 9:18am
Quoting havaiana
Sick call, doesn't get much better than that

Hope you're on, i missed it, thought there was still more to go

yeah I trade around my long term positions alot .. I grabbed this at 9400 playing that support.. turned out to be awesome trade
  • #1,349
  • Oct 12, 2011 1:12am Oct 12, 2011 1:12am
exited longs at 600pipsish going short again on narrow ird pairs looking for entrances
  • #1,350
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:47am Dec 13, 2011 11:47am
End of year Chart for this trading style

This was a sub account attached to our main trading account that only traded in currencies specifically for this thread to show what types of profits to expect trading with this system.

as risk it uses entrances amounts that equal to .2% of the account.. and it has shown a 37% growth over the year.. which makes using extremely low risk and extremely safe and also great yielding system. This produced profits during the crashes through this year and is still producing profits during these recent drops...
Attached Image
  • #1,351
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:58am Dec 13, 2011 11:58am
Quoting domino
End of year Chart for this trading style

This was a sub account attached to our main trading account that only traded in currencies specifically for this thread to show what types of profits to expect trading with this system.

as risk it uses entrances amounts that equal to .2% of the account.. and it has shown a 37% growth over the year.. which makes using extremely low risk and extremely safe and also great yielding system. This produced profits during the crashes through this year and is still producing profits during these recent drops...

by adjusting your initial risk profits can exceed 130-200% annually tho I recommend slower growth with less risk we risk more by imcreasing the amount of positions spread over multiple markets..
  • #1,352
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:22pm Dec 14, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting domino
as risk it uses entrances amounts that equal to .2% of the account.. and it has shown a 37% growth over the year..
Wow, that's a huge gain compared with risk. Congratulations on the year.

Do you know what the largest % drawdown was for the year?

We're approaching levels I'm looking to long in Aud/usd, are you looking to long again or done for the year?

Funny how you start the type of thread so many people are looking for, a common sense, simple and profitable method and everyone stops posting in it...
  • #1,353
  • Dec 14, 2011 6:26pm Dec 14, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting havaiana
Wow, that's a huge gain compared with risk. Congratulations on the year.

Do you know what the largest % drawdown was for the year?

We're approaching levels I'm looking to long in Aud/usd, are you looking to long again or done for the year?

Funny how you start the type of thread so many people are looking for, a common sense, simple and profitable method and everyone stops posting in it...
yeah in just currencies it was about 2% from a string of entrances that didn't stick. I dont really count peak to valley when positions are floating in profit.. since they are all protected by stops and i cant take a hit on any of them.

yeah we'll keep trading through xmas, we are looking at AUD/usd but there is a lot of better options in other markets right now..

haha yeah thanks its pretty common sense and extremely easy to trade like this.. people just need to feel like they figured it out and they are smarter than everyone else and they've unlocked the code with super complicated stuff, but its the easy logical stuff paired with good money management that works the best.
  • #1,354
  • Dec 15, 2011 1:04pm Dec 15, 2011 1:04pm
I read briefly about gaping areas without too much orderflow. Can someone care to explain that further?

My understanding is that if there is a lack of open interest (standing limit orders) in an area, it would be easier to overcome that area to push price into an area with order clusters.

Ie. I'm looking to go long on a pair at 1.0000. There is a lack of limit sells all the way from 1.0000 to 1.0040, where there is a good cluster of limit sells at 1.0040-50. If the sentiment is optimistic, then I'd want to gap that area and liquidate into the cluster of limit sells.
  • #1,355
  • Dec 16, 2011 1:27am Dec 16, 2011 1:27am
yeah the lack of orders in the gap provide rejection of zones and heavy traded zones attract price.. the higher the OF ranks the smoother price should move and more it should attract price.. the opposite with gapped OF the less it ranks and the more gapped the higher the rejection chance due to it being a low order area.
  • #1,356
  • Dec 16, 2011 6:44am Dec 16, 2011 6:44am
Quoting havaiana
Funny how you start the type of thread so many people are looking for, a common sense, simple and profitable method and everyone stops posting in it...
yeah,
best thread in the whole of FF in my opinion but, as domino said, people just want to crack the code.....instead of making money
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #1,357
  • Dec 16, 2011 1:17pm Dec 16, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting hornet
yeah,
best thread in the whole of FF in my opinion but, as domino said, people just want to crack the code.....instead of making money
that and the first 1/4 of the thread is just people arguing about what to call things I can see how most readers would struggle to find information in here by skipping around
  • #1,358
  • Dec 16, 2011 3:25pm Dec 16, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting hornet
yeah,
best thread in the whole of FF in my opinion but, as domino said, people just want to crack the code.....instead of making money
Hey Hornet good to see you are still kicking around this joint, glad to see some action in here.

Agreed, traders like Domino that give their valuable knowledge on forums that are 95% trash, are very rare these days. Understanding of market logic resulting in a way to profit from the markets....who'd have thought!
  • #1,359
  • Dec 16, 2011 3:39pm Dec 16, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting domino
that and the first 1/4 of the thread is just people arguing about what to call things I can see how most readers would struggle to find information in here by skipping around
Yeah you are right about that. But the only thing that bothers me with those few pages is, that Scotty B character, what the feck is going on with his hair (if that avatar is him)!?
  • #1,360
  • Dec 16, 2011 5:34pm Dec 16, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting Porkpie
Yeah you are right about that. But the only thing that bothers me with those few pages is, that Scotty B character, what the feck is going on with his hair (if that avatar is him)!?
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