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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,801
  • Dec 11, 2011 11:34pm Dec 11, 2011 11:34pm
Dukascopy provides some market sentiment too:
http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,802
  • Dec 13, 2011 3:20am Dec 13, 2011 3:20am
Quoting Evak
Interesting though as i was looking at this chart 2 weeks ago too. Notice the saturation point now...

yesterday is down trend day
today asia is balance,

i took short on London B period Open
initial risk 14pips.

i guess this is your typical trade ..
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  • #3,803
  • Dec 13, 2011 6:23am Dec 13, 2011 6:23am
Quoting bandung
yesterday is down trend day
today asia is balance,

i took short on London B period Open
initial risk 14pips.

i guess this is your typical trade ..
another BE trade, while i'm going home from workplace...
notice it reverse back to the downside on yesterday NY ses VAH.

we'll have some 'red' news tonight....
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  • #3,804
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:05pm Dec 13, 2011 7:05pm
2nd trade of yesterday work nicely..
i entered short after a clear break of 24 hours dynamic value.
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  • #3,805
  • Dec 14, 2011 4:26pm Dec 14, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting bandung
2nd trade of yesterday work nicely..
i entered short after a clear break of 24 hours dynamic value.
can you help me brother and till me how to use this good analysis that called market profile ????
  • #3,806
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:37am Dec 15, 2011 3:37am
Quoting bandung
2nd trade of yesterday work nicely..
i entered short after a clear break of 24 hours dynamic value.
and please could you give me the template you use cos i download the indicators but i dont understand the seettings
  • #3,807
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:58am Dec 15, 2011 3:58am
Quoting zelenko
and please could you give me the template you use cos i download the indicators but i dont understand the seettings
i add the indicators and i'm using alpari uk platform

and thats what apear on the chart

can any one help me please and till me the true settings or template
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  • #3,808
  • Dec 15, 2011 5:20pm Dec 15, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting zelenko
i add the indicators and i'm using alpari uk platform

and thats what apear on the chart

can any one help me please and till me the true settings or template
Press "F8" change the "Line Graph" color to "None". Then click on the "Common" tab, in the same window. Turn on "Scale Fix". Close the window, go back to your profile chart, hit Alt+3 to turn on the Line Graph. Then click on your y-axis of your chart and expand it by dragging your mouse upwards.

I'm not a big fan of running candlesticks over the profile. It's too much of a mess. Also, running the volume bars under the profile in a separate window isn't necessary. The profile start time (when it begins to draw) differs from when the actual MT4 new day starts so the data would be misrepresented and not convenient to view. I would suggest running a profile chart with a 30m bar chart beside it (with volume) for reference.

Also, when using the indicator, you can customize the "row height" (height of the letters) to your liking. I like big profiles so I use a setting of 3. This means each letter is 3 pips high.

Hope this helps!
  • #3,809
  • Dec 16, 2011 1:38am Dec 16, 2011 1:38am
The positive neutral balance of yesterday was fillling up the LUA of Wed's pretty nicely into balance. Price Open above range today & balance till it hit the onto yesterday control in this early european open.

I am expecting a lot of void to be fill in order to complete the the unfinish weekly profile..

If the supply dont hold up, then the push through it could be rapid once price enter into the spike zone, with potential inventory repair all the way up to VPOC perhaps but at the very least towards the spike base.

I have my entry made yesterday as price settles down after NY onto the session DVAL . My only trade this week & hope my remaining won't get scratch...

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/9...4dec161525.gif

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  • #3,810
  • Dec 16, 2011 6:43am Dec 16, 2011 6:43am
TK session minus development was bouncing off previous US session VA, UK opening with responsive during A period did the same too, off TK low as a point reference.

Previous trade was stop out risk free. I have a re-entry made right on the UK opening with a 10p risk. Exposure now reduce at 3050 with 39p..

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/9...6dec162034.gif

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  • #3,811
  • Dec 16, 2011 10:00am Dec 16, 2011 10:00am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i find very difficult to get a good trade, in these days. all it seems confuse and random...the only thing i'm satisfied with is the ability i got using AMT to enter into a trade earlier, fitting into "innovators or early adopters" category. in order of that i get a smaller risk if my trade proves wrong, the only problem is these last days my trade proved wrong most of the time
  • #3,812
  • Dec 16, 2011 4:57pm Dec 16, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting s7c
i find very difficult to get a good trade, in these days. all it seems confuse and random...
I hear ya, this past week the markets have been seemingly absent of OTF traders

Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,813
  • Dec 16, 2011 10:28pm Dec 16, 2011 10:28pm
it's commercials, not commercial speculators. commercials are exchanging at whatever value they need it at that moment - my understanding is that they are importers/exporters/other financial entities moving money into/out of a certain currency. bottom line is, commercials are not trading currencies for profit.

now the other interesting parts are large traders (and to some extent, small speculators). these are the real speculators, that is, they are trading currencies for profit.

long story short, you should look at the situation completely the other way - commercials are long, which means the real speculators ("smart money") are SHORT. big time. and i bet they are expecting lower prices... because they just added to their shorts (!!!), which makes me wanna keep my shorts on . yet.

p.s. take a look at aussie cot reports, i would think there's going to be some opportunity for a nice long IF it goes above weekly descending channel. not yet there, but i've got patience.

Quoting Bilstein
Some food for thought;
Commercial speculators are net long the Euro at the highest levels since the pair traded near 1.20
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,814
  • Dec 17, 2011 12:41am Dec 17, 2011 12:41am
Quoting Scrat
it's commercials, not commercial speculators. commercials are exchanging at whatever value they need it at that moment - my understanding is that they are importers/exporters/other financial entities moving money into/out of a certain currency. bottom line is, commercials are not trading currencies for profit.

now the other interesting parts are large traders (and to some extent, small speculators). these are the real speculators, that is, they are trading currencies for profit.

long story short, you should look at the situation completely...
But scrat, wouldn’t you think that big commercials, because they “use” or “produce” the product, like you say aren’t in it for profit, then what would the “need to do business” be? Commercials are also classified as “large commercial hedgers” because they also trade (hedge) to minimize risk against future losses. So with that thought, if Commercials are net long, not to make a profit, wouldn’t it be to secure a price today (current price) against, what they feel might be higher prices in the future? I take that as they are or have been buying as much as they can now, to protect themselves against futures prices. being that they are closer to the market (not being speculators) and better informed about true supply and demand , I take their net buying, (buying as much as they can now) while prices are low, because they see higher prices in the future. I take Commercials being net long, as a sign of a major (macro) change of trend. Cot theory is very new to me, and it can be very subjective as well, its interesting to hear other peoples take on the situation. It will be interesting to see what the new year brings
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,815
  • Edited 10:12am Dec 17, 2011 9:30am | Edited 10:12am
for instance, export cars... or planes... or whatever. then exchange profit back to their national currency so they can pay their workers, creditors etc.
Quoting mzvega
But scrat, wouldn’t you think that big commercials, because they “use” or “produce” the product, like you say aren’t in it for profit, then what would the “need to do business” be?
i don't think so. how much "room" for price-wiggling do you think for example toyota or bmw or apple has... i mean, i heard stories about car companies hedging but it was mainly for protecting their business for a limited period of time and not for profits. and the big chunk of money, most of it, still has to come from their main object of activity. otherwise they would all be hedging funds, banks, investment funds and not commercials.
Quoting mzvega
if Commercials are net long, not to make a profit, wouldn’t it be to secure a price today (current price) against, what they feel might be higher prices in the future? I take that as they are or have been buying as much as they can now, to protect themselves against futures prices. being that they are closer to the market (not being speculators) and better informed about true supply and demand , I take their net buying, (buying as much as they can now) while prices are low, because they see higher prices in...
i'm sure you read 'master the markets' or at least have a very basic understanding of what accumulation, trend and distribution are. now look at the technical trend of euro - it is down. think about what is going on in a downtrend - pros are already short, they are either holding shorts or closing positions for profit... so now try to correlate that with COT chart (you can go several years back) in terms of commercials or large traders positioning. i think the main trend is the opposite of commercials 'positioning'.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,816
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:11am Dec 17, 2011 10:11am
my interpretation for this COT data is this: for medium/long term positioning and trading, i look closely for breaks below/above 0 for commercials. that is the moment when the change in trend is confirmed (although the beginning is much earlier...! but i am not picking tops or bottoms, i am most interested in what's easier to get).
here's my example, on euro chart. black arrows are places where commercials contracts went through 0. that's when the change in trend is confirmed. weekly chart looks more neat, it also gives you some values - but that's gonna be your homework: week of sept 9th was first one with a net balance of commercials short contracts - make note of high and low of that week; then look at the test made during week of oct 28th. ideal opportunity to go short with a very small SL!!!
just my two cents.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,817
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:26am Dec 17, 2011 10:26am
last one.
look at aussie globex, i mentioned it earlier. do you think it'll go down? technically, it is within a descending weekly channel, but look at what COT shows - large traders are still net long aud (or commercials are net short) and started loading longs again. there was a moment when we saw a break of 0 in commercials contracts (with only ~470 contracts!!!), week of october 14th - H 1.0270, L 0.9671. but look at large traders (green line), it's been more than 2 years and they never went below 0! in other words, no short contracts for large traders. and aussie was going up since then. do you still think you should follow commercials?
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,818
  • Edited 6:37pm Dec 17, 2011 2:11pm | Edited 6:37pm
Quoting Scrat
i don't think so. how much "room" for price-wiggling do you think for example toyota or bmw or apple has... i mean, i heard stories about car companies hedging but it was mainly for protecting their business for a limited period of time and not for profits. and the big chunk of money, most of it, still has to come from their main object of activity. otherwise they would all be hedging funds, banks, investment funds and not commercials.

But what about in the context of trading currency? How much “wiggle” room do the likes of Commercial swap dealers which include JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, State Street Bank, and HSBC,etc. have?? Banks are the most likely the holders of large currency positions. Banks with the top five portfolios of currency derivatives each hold a multiple of the total notional value of all reported currency contracts on the IMM.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,819
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:17pm Dec 17, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting Scrat
i think the main trend is the opposite of commercials 'positioning'.....
But who ultimately determines where that trend changes and when?
I agree, large specs are a great way to determine which way the trend is currently going, but, is it not the Commercials that ultimately determine which direction the trend goes and when?
But very much like AMT , for COT I think PA at the extremes is very key.
In the included chart are examples of commercial “Net” Com. activity on the extremes, marked with green lines at “net long” and at the” momentum high extremes”, the converse in red. I did a few with arrows but the chart is getting cluttered but the confluence of “net positions, and “momentum extemes” are marked red or green. But currently we are at this type of Commercial positioning. As Cot is still very new to me I am very curious to see how this plays out! My main interest in the COT is to identify extreme commercial positioning, and how to best trade it.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,820
  • Dec 17, 2011 4:59pm Dec 17, 2011 4:59pm
Quoting mzvega
But who ultimately determines where that trend changes and when?
I agree, large specs are a great way to determine which way the trend is currently going, but, is it not the Commercials that ultimately determine which direction the trend goes and when?
But very much like AMT , for COT I think PA at the extremes is very key.
[font=Verdana][color=black][font=Calibri][size=3][font=Verdana][size=2]In the included chart are examples...
I just wanted to add a couple more chart examples to the show the Extreme commercial positioning and the PA which follows
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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