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AUD/USD

  • #37,861
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:27pm Dec 15, 2011 9:27pm
With the US adding an additional 2 trillion a year in debt and gold at 1500, you would think AUD would be at 1.4-1.5. Are there any contrarian views to being in so much debt? Like, maybe nobody will fight the US, because we owe everyone so much money?
  • #37,862
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:31pm Dec 15, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting Halba
4 pips in past 40 mins

agree it could go down but may be next week
Patience is a virtue..
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,863
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:36pm Dec 15, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting Clouds
With the US adding an additional 2 trillion a year in debt and gold at 1500, you would think AUD would be at 1.4-1.5. Are there any contrarian views to being in so much debt? Like, maybe nobody will fight the US, because we owe everyone so much money?
money printing is inflationary but aud will never go to 1.4, it is originally a speculative currency pair that got lucky with the rise of china. prior to that it was 60c. with the EZ outlook pathetic, next year the so called 'aussie' will retest its 2012 lows.
  • #37,864
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:53pm Dec 15, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting Halba
money printing is inflationary but aud will never go to 1.4, it is originally a speculative currency pair that got lucky with the rise of china. prior to that it was 60c. with the EZ outlook pathetic, next year the so called 'aussie' will retest its 2012 lows.
I think still depend on the rate difference with the US , as long as it big enough like 4% ..it's difficult to even go below 0.9..but maybe i'm wrong..
  • #37,865
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:56pm Dec 15, 2011 9:56pm
I'm enjoying American Idol, I mean the primary debates.

Go Ron Paul!!!
  • #37,866
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:58pm Dec 15, 2011 9:58pm
i am very very amazed as to how AUDUSD is highly correlated with S&P and to some extent the DOW. These two indexes are US equity indexes and their strength reflects health of US economy and not AUstralia's.

I have accepted this behavior as a given but had never understood WHY. can anyone give some insight?

China is AUstralia's biggest buyers of commodities such as metals and coal. But recent China data shows contraction, slowdown and possible hard landing. we already know from news reports. is these all for real? or some speculation? Well a friend in the mining industry came back with dire bad news China had stopped buying till Q2. This implies, Australia will be starved of trade and therefore AUD should start dropping.

FXCM DailyFx stated that AUD fair value should be around 0.80 and not 1.00. Yet why is AUD still stubbornly at parity with USD? can anyone give some ideas here?

All i can derived are:
1. Carry Trade... Japanese are hot on Interest Rate Plays.
2. Safe Haven play.. hmm but does AUD have that much money?
3. Speculation.
4. oh hell... i believe it could be just massive HATE USD play
  • #37,867
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:04pm Dec 15, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting andri66
I think still depend on the rate difference with the US , as long as it big enough like 4% ..it's difficult to even go below 0.9..but maybe i'm wrong..
Back in 2006-2007, before FEB start cutting rates, USD has a huge 3% interest advantage over EUR. yet EURUSD clikbed from 1.2500 to 1.4000.
it was during this period that CARRY TRADE was a commonj practice. I would long USDJPY and it gives 1 pip positive swap each day. Yet why is EURUSD Not following the carry trade aka swap differential?

I should ask the Japanese why ey like AUD....
  • #37,868
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:19pm Dec 15, 2011 10:19pm
You know why Obama was elected, because one of the co-founders at facebook helped him advertise online. I remember hearing about this on TV, look it up online. The guy that helped him was gay, and probably thought he would help him and his people or something. Little did
He know he'd drive us to bankruptcy. Look at his campaign, he started off advertising in colleges, just like facebook. Anyway, I hope that Ron Paul wins and someone that recognizes the US is too much debt, and will cut spending. What a world.
  • #37,869
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:22pm Dec 15, 2011 10:22pm
ragna - AAA rated and china still buying dirt. 4% differential to us interest rates, too costly to short. most of the increase in aud due to pathetic us economy forcing them to drop rates, and aud's rates relatively stable
  • #37,870
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:42pm Dec 15, 2011 10:42pm
closed +87 on longs

on aussie



had a fun run but must die out on this one now

hey clouds, watsup?

obama was a whole fb campaign? damn how much did he bribe the co founder?

isit a rumour or 'fact'?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: enter after bounce.gif Size: 30 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #37,871
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:50pm Dec 15, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting bumapatria
closed +87 on longs

on aussie



had a fun run but must die out on this one now

hey clouds, watsup?

obama was a whole fb campaign? damn how much did he bribe the co founder?

isit a rumour or 'fact'?
Fact.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Hughes under career
  • #37,872
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:57pm Dec 15, 2011 10:57pm
will hit resistance at .9985 and reverse?
  • #37,873
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:03pm Dec 15, 2011 11:03pm
Quoting ibotman
will hit resistance at .9985 and reverse?
No, I doubt it, NZD already broke previous highs.
  • #37,874
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:12pm Dec 15, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting Clouds
No, I doubt it, NZD already broke previous highs.
cant compare, nz has less pippage
  • #37,875
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:13pm Dec 15, 2011 11:13pm
Morning , the cnb people thown the market into turmoil /bigger ranges but should resume as soon as possible & handle with care .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post5228367

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #37,876
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:15pm Dec 15, 2011 11:15pm
Quoting Halba
cant compare, nz has less pippage
'yes we can'

Then compare it with CAD or CHF.
  • #37,877
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:22pm Dec 15, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting Halba
ragna - AAA rated and china still buying dirt. 4% differential to us interest rates, too costly to short. most of the increase in aud due to pathetic us economy forcing them to drop rates, and aud's rates relatively stable
hmm.. maybe the game has chnaged on the carry trade..
ie, when its not viable on retail forex, its still viable on real money?

on retail, we collect about 70% of what is the actual interest. but on real money we get full. and real money is what drives the real price
  • #37,878
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:35pm Dec 15, 2011 11:35pm
it just undid 5hrs of up move in 5 candles on 1min..if u go long on this baby you need to get out fast
  • #37,879
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:44pm Dec 15, 2011 11:44pm
Quoting Halba
it just undid 5hrs of up move in 5 candles on 1min..if u go long on this baby you need to get out fast
I don't see any reason to get out fast on 4 hour, but I'm not saying where it will go.
  • #37,880
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:50pm Dec 15, 2011 11:50pm
Will hit and heading down....
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