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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #105,221
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:10pm Dec 15, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting ghous
Its totally natural to get lured into the micro analysis/bar to bar analysis. After all that's how price moves (bar by bar) and if you're watching a live chart you are obviously watching action unfold at that level.

Another factor which causes this is often linked with our rather erroneous mindsets where we want to have "fun" trading. Analyzing even a 1H chart at Mike's level can lead you to develop a picture of what price is doing at a level that sucks life (and fun and excitment) out of analyzing charts bar by bar.

For example, Mike would...
Thanks to MIke and Ghous for the kindly reply, I will try to digest all these stuffs, it should be a time thing. thank you very much.

Best
CK
----------------------------- Discipline makes the difference.
  • #105,222
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:14pm Dec 15, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting mbqb11
This stuff is great right? If you short we know exactly where to watch. If we want to buy we also know where to watch. All one has to do then is wait till things meet their criteria and run with it

good charts Phanti, make sure you guys see how clean he is marking his levels. Look for those obvious ones no matter if you want to sell or buy they can't be ignored, but use the information logically


Love this stuff

Mike
Hi Mike,
This BEOB on USDCHF looks like ok for short setup, but we shld be quick to take profit at the very strong resistance turn support area as marked, given its on strong trend up?
  • #105,223
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:24pm Dec 15, 2011 9:24pm
Quoting Fx7877
Hi Mike,
This BEOB on USDCHF looks like ok for short setup, but we shld be quick to take profit at the very strong resistance turn support area as marked, given its on strong trend up?
Hey FX

It depends in how you want to play it. There could be a solid 5-6 different ways to play it. Personally this is an easy pass for me. But if I was forced too I would be thinking quick to b/e quick to take profit, or at the very worst a very small loss. Your observations are correct in my view point. Taking a full bar loss here would be the only thing that would really make me worried about someone(but of course as trading goes not secondarily wrong depending on the reasons why). It's all about the reasons why we do something

Best
Mike
  • #105,224
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:24pm Dec 15, 2011 9:24pm
Mike,
EURCHF printed BEOB near top of the range. This pair is ranging, not the best setup, but I like the size of the BEOB and its near top. There is a gap to fill and target the opp end of the range if it breaks BEOB. Your comments are appreciated as always. Thks
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  • #105,225
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:26pm Dec 15, 2011 9:26pm
Quoting Fx7877
Mike,
EURCHF printed BEOB near top of the range. This pair is ranging, not the best setup, but I like the size of the BEOB and its near top. There is a gap to fill and target the opp end of the range if it breaks BEOB. Your comments are appreciated as always. Thks
Hey FX

This one is way to range bound for me, they will move likely in tandem to the other xxx/chf pairs. So in my view picking the one that's been under heavy intervention and range bound vs say the usd/chf which at least has more confluence including a BRN doesn't make much sense. Taking all of the xxx/chf trades is also just over exposing. In these cases I only take the best one. Again for me I won't be playing with these but would take the usd/chf over the eur/chf myself if I had to as the char is much more clear.

Best
Mike
  • #105,226
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:29pm Dec 15, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey FX

It depends in how you want to play it. There could be a solid 5-6 different ways to play it. Personally this is an easy pass for me. But if I was forced too I would be thinking quick to b/e quick to take profit, or at the very worst a very small loss. Your observations are correct in my view point. Taking a full bar loss here would be the only thing that would really make me worried about someone(but of course as trading goes not secondarily wrong depending on the reasons why). It's all about the reasons why we do something

Best
Mike...
Thanks Mike. Yea, this wld be a quick one if it works out, quick to take profit and quick to move SL to B/E. Also, initial SL will be set based on smaller TF e.g. H4. The other way to play it is to look for bullish PA when it hits support to go with the trend
  • #105,227
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:30pm Dec 15, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting Fx7877
Thanks Mike. Yea, this wld be a quick one if it works out, quick to take profit and quick to move SL to B/E. Also, initial SL will be set based on smaller TF e.g. H4. The other way to play it is to look for bullish PA when it hits support to go with the trend
  • #105,228
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:33pm Dec 15, 2011 9:33pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey FX

This one is way to range bound for me, they will move likely in tandem to the other xxx/chf pairs. So in my view picking the one that's been under heavy intervention and range bound vs say the usd/chf which at least has more confluence including a BRN doesn't make much sense. Taking all of the xxx/chf trades is also just over exposing. In these cases I only take the best one. Again for me I won't be playing with these but would take the usd/chf over the eur/chf myself if I had to as the char is much more clear.

Best
Mike
Thanks for pointing that out. Just like to ask since EUR is subject to heavy intervention, do we steer clear of all EUR pairs? Or only those EUR pairs that are range bound?
  • #105,229
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:34pm Dec 15, 2011 9:34pm
another chart

being that it is friday I think the FTA is very likely. The markets rarely move in a straight line and it's a good day for price to take a breather. Move lower before finding more buyers. Is it possible price could keep going. You bet ya. But we take care of our money and our position still.

This is classic James16 stuff. Not because I am even trading it. But because the pieces that James teaches are all laid out there for us to make an educated decision. And we learn from those each time.


Best
Mike
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  • #105,230
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:04pm Dec 15, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting mbqb11
another chart

being that it is friday I think the FTA is very likely. The markets rarely move in a straight line and it's a good day for price to take a breather. Move lower before finding more buyers. Is it possible price could keep going. You bet ya. But we take care of our money and our position still.

This is classic James16 stuff. Not because I am even trading it. But because the pieces that James teaches are all laid out there for us to make an educated decision. And we learn from those each time.


Best
Mike
there is a similar setup on GBPCHF and that broke through the 365 EMA, which is the stronger setup in your view? USDCHF or GBPCHF? i tend to have a bias towards GBPCHF due to the EMA.
  • #105,231
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:26pm Dec 15, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting Fx7877
Thanks Mike. Yea, this wld be a quick one if it works out, quick to take profit and quick to move SL to B/E. Also, initial SL will be set based on smaller TF e.g. H4. The other way to play it is to look for bullish PA when it hits support to go with the trend
Here's how I see UC on 4H, clean level with confluence: RN, 50 retrace, 150 ema approaching. Luckily I'm off work tomorrow...so I can watch a couple of 4H closes tomorrow morning
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  • #105,232
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:34pm Dec 15, 2011 11:34pm
Quoting fascist
there is a similar setup on GBPCHF and that broke through the 365 EMA, which is the stronger setup in your view? USDCHF or GBPCHF? i tend to have a bias towards GBPCHF due to the EMA.
Defintiely no Mike here, but I'll chime in. I think they're pretty much the same set up...shorting into an area that is highly probable to be resistance. The GBPCHF is going right into a BRN of 1.4500. Zooming out you can really see it is a strong ppz.
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  • #105,233
  • Dec 16, 2011 12:00am Dec 16, 2011 12:00am
S&R
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #105,234
  • Dec 16, 2011 12:32am Dec 16, 2011 12:32am
CHFJPY BUEOB off what looks like weekly LCS

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  • #105,235
  • Dec 16, 2011 4:46am Dec 16, 2011 4:46am
Hourly great BEOB on important level

Stop Loss

what was my mistake?

many thanks
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Don't give up
  • #105,236
  • Edited 5:31am Dec 16, 2011 5:05am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting geomink
Hourly great BEOB on important level
Stop Loss
what was my mistake?
hello Sir geomink,
i dont view this as a 'great' BEOB.
if u meant great = big... i can easily point out 8-10 much bigger bars in that chart.

if u committed any 'mistakes', it could be any/all of these:
1. thinking it's a 'great' BEOB
2. expecting price will drop big
3. failed to see, or worse u ignored, immediate trouble areas
4. failed to go with current trend/price flow (price has been making higher swing highs& swing lows)

#2 & #3 are related. i briefly commented about #1 above.
#4 can be best explained/taught/learned via adequate time studying charts.

NOTE also the bullish pinbar right after your BEOB. that was another warning
what was the low of the BEOB? it was right above the 1.5500 RN. so essentially u traded right into a RN. RNs can sometimes be 'brick walls'.

just my view. hope it helps
  • #105,237
  • Dec 16, 2011 5:14am Dec 16, 2011 5:14am
Quoting geomink
Hourly great BEOB on important level

Stop Loss

what was my mistake?

many thanks
Dude..

You're too overleveraged on your trades and trading timeframe too small. Trade on daily chart and with 1:1 leverage instead. That explains why you lost so much money within few weeks
"Nature's law" is called "Reason". When perfectly understood by human it is
  • #105,238
  • Dec 16, 2011 5:52am Dec 16, 2011 5:52am
Quoting Fx7877
Thanks for pointing that out. Just like to ask since EUR is subject to heavy intervention, do we steer clear of all EUR pairs? Or only those EUR pairs that are range bound?

FX- I think what Mike is really saying is that CHF (fundamentally ) is subject to Intervention (As it has been in past few months), the Swiss national bank have openly stated that they will defend (devalue) their currency in order to maintain domestic competitiveness (so too have the japanese Central Bank as per their intervention in Late Oct /Early November),the SNB have Openly commented that they will continue to sell CHF indefinitely below the 1.20 EUR/CHF level (please note that they use Euro reserves to do this + that any move in USD/ CHF rates will actually emanate from EUR./USD and EUR/CHF rates -it is the latter that is supported by SNB policy ) ,

This fact is not to be taken in isolation , It seems that you may have concluded from Mikes Comments that the intervention would affect all EUR cross rates ,,in relation to this story-This is not the case ,the USD can only be viewed as fundamentally bullish for the dollar as a cross rate SPECIFICALLY against the CHF (only) (obviously the result of pending sales of the CHF by the SNB will devalue the CHF particularly against the EUR but also against the other cross rates including the USD (Depending on its relationship against the EUR )) - In other words this story is more about the SNB potentially devaluing their currency (CHF) rather than the other cross rates(EUR/USD or other) ,, But that intervention will affect the EUR most directly and thereby as a result other CHF cross rates ,

CHF as such Should be treated with an added measure of caution - (But bear in mind that it is Euro reserves that will be used by the SNB to devalue) ,

I believe Mike is not saying to avoid all Euro pairs as it seems you may have concluded , rather i believe he is urging caution in the case of the EUR/ CHF pair particularly if you are a seller,,,,,
Now, please bear in mind that some of the very smart money is actually selling USD/CHF and EUR/CHF as history has usually shown that central banks may temporarily hold up the makket-But they rarely have beaten it over the longer term, George Soros proved that in the case of sterling in the past ,it has been proven many times since , In the longer term - central banks reserves can never be deep enough to take on the market , they just do not have enough money,, so - treat with caution ,,, i believe that is all that Mike meant and it s about the CHF only i believe ,, not all EUR rates ,

I think re the consolidation- He is saying do not sell into support or buy into resitance, that is advise on all trades for all pairs ,. Not just on the EURO as you seem to isolate the EURO in relation to the comment , Mike - I hope i Have explained properly what i believe you meant and i hope that this comment helps ,
B
  • #105,239
  • Dec 16, 2011 7:19am Dec 16, 2011 7:19am
Quoting geomink
Hourly great BEOB on important level

Stop Loss

what was my mistake?

many thanks
Pin Bar

Stop Loss
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Don't give up
  • #105,240
  • Dec 16, 2011 7:36am Dec 16, 2011 7:36am
Quoting brandon1
FX- I think what Mike is really saying is that CHF (fundamentally ) is subject to Intervention (As it has been in past few months), the Swiss national bank have openly stated that they will defend (devalue) their currency in order to maintain domestic competitiveness (so too have the japanese Central Bank as per their intervention in Late Oct /Early November),the SNB have Openly commented that they will continue to sell CHF indefinitely below the 1.20 EUR/CHF level (please note that they use Euro reserves to do this...
Hey B

Yep thanks bud, I missed that question.

At the end of the day I play my charts. But you can't help but know when something else is up(like with usd/jpy recently, or the eur/chf). But certainly if an opportunity presents itself I will be taking it. I am just more cautious to get involved in those types of pairs, and my method largely dictates that anyway because a heavy ranging market is not a market I love.

Thanks B

Mike
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