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  • #2,221
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:13am Dec 15, 2011 2:13am
Mary if you read this and trying to make sense of PA and what/why/where/when. I posted a little while back about certain times of day, London open, early US and London close.

This morning the counter trend move up at London open was a classic head fake move. You'll see the failed move up turned (classic 2b trade with divergence on 5 min) and reverted to (dare I say it) the trend.

Pre US session. Be very wary of weak counter trend moves as there are often (2b 5 min) moves back into trend. London close however is known for its smallish counter trend moves.

Just try and be careful in and around those times.
  • #2,222
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:15am Dec 15, 2011 2:15am
Quoting gregben
Because I think the support is strong @ 1.2980 I have closed my short and will look for a trigger to go long.

gregben
Because we could not take out yesterday's low and a reversal candle on 5 and 15 min charts I entered long at 1.2970 with a tight stop below the low @ 1.2956.
Have not set TP as yet, but will monitor the trade closely and bring my stop to BE fairly quickly and have a free trade.

gregben
  • #2,223
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:20am Dec 15, 2011 2:20am
Vantage,

Thanks for your help! I'am enjoying reading
your suggestions and learning from them.

snarlyjack
  • #2,224
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:23am Dec 15, 2011 2:23am
Got in short on the pullback on the M15 TF at 8:30 GMT. Won some and lost some due to setting my SL too tight and re-entering. I had the right idea and was riding the momentum but due to broker spreads and setting too tight SL, it was a net loss. What a loser.
  • #2,225
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:26am Dec 15, 2011 2:26am
Quoting hale-mary
saw the pullback bar but was not convinced So I waited for a red candle close and entered on the open of the second candle @ 1.2970 problem is...even with the TDI cross price seems to not want to cooperate.

Was this a late entry?
Mary
In my humble opinion yes. You have sold right on a major SR level, whilst you may get lucky (the smaller bounce on 5 min does suggest more downside) that may not be the case always (OK nothing ever is).

I would agree wth the posters that got in earlier and did not wait for the 1hr to turn (we have spoken about the dis-advantages of sytems waiting for crosses etc).

Off topic but google 2b trade, look at 5 min chart and move back into trend.
  • #2,226
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:30am Dec 15, 2011 2:30am
Quoting hale-mary
saw the pullback bar but was not convinced So I waited for a red candle close and entered on the open of the second candle @ 1.2970 problem is...even with the TDI cross price seems to not want to cooperate.

Was this a late entry?
If you had done exactly the same thing on the M30 TF...waited for the next bar to confirm the pullback...you would have had 35Pips.

It's December...PA is not going to be what it was.

I think there have been enough posts here pointing out the pips being pocketed on the lower TF's.

Just my observation...
Enter Signature
  • #2,227
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:33am Dec 15, 2011 2:33am
Quoting gregben
Because we could not take out yesterday's low and a reversal candle on 5 and 15 min charts I entered long at 1.2970 with a tight stop below the low @ 1.2956.
Have not set TP as yet, but will monitor the trade closely and bring my stop to BE fairly quickly and have a free trade.

gregben
Have moved stop to BE and set TP tentatively just below last high @1.3035. Will monitor and move higher if sufficient momentum.

gregben
  • #2,228
  • Edited 2:52am Dec 15, 2011 2:33am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting SmokeyD
Wonderful of you!

Go to http://www.forextester.com/data/datasources.html


File is too large to attach. The site has 10 years of data on all majors.

EDIT---The file is 1min. tick data. If you need a hand converting in MT4 to H1, let me know.
I'd say buy FT and use that, it's much better for doing it than MT4...and if you can't afford the small fee it costs...why are you trading FX? The newest, updated version does have the TDI indi (although as I say coming from a pure PA background anyway, all it taught me was the the indi is nigh on useless apart from one condition).

What it boils down to for me is these thoughts (note I've always been more of a trend trader than a scalper):

Trade management is king, why the internet is absolutely awash with entry 'systems' (they are not systems) and never goes into details about trade management and position management I'll never know ("take what you can" PMSL!).

What you use as entry criteria is ALMOST irrelevant. I've managed to make 'systems', 'work' in markets as variable as using MAs only, Stochs, TDI, higher highs and lows, PA, whatever, it doesn't actually matter, none of them are magic and none foolproof and none actually have all that much to do with whether you are profitable or not. Entry is not king apart from perhaps giving you a reasonable chance of staying out a trade and it not immediately hitting your stop.

Cut your losses, do not allow them to hit your stop wherever possible.

Run your wins when possible. When you catch a trend and it's far enough from your entry to take a risk (i.e. leave it rather than cut it), that's where you make the money. All the 20 pip winners just pay for all the 20 pip losses.

Do not move your stop to b/e, UNLESS price has moved SIGNIFICANTLY in your favour and you have already observed initial profit taking/stop hunting.

Support and resistance are (believe me) subjective and fail just as often as they work. In and of themselves useless (shoot me down), what happened in the past does not necc. repeat in the future. Again, cutting winning trades because you see support or resistance is asking to fail (cutting winners), don't cut winners until you see PA saying 'cut winner.

Same with supply and demand zones. It's easy looking over old charts and saying 'price went from here to here because of this' but the eye sees what it wants to see. Look for all the failed trades, not the winning ones.

To make pips, you have to be prepared to lose pips.

To make more pips you have to be prepared to give pips back.

Momentum is king, always.

Pin bars. Sometimes work, sometimes don't. What is a pin bar? Why do we fool ourselves with these things? How was the pin formed? On H4 was it a 5 minute spike down followed by a slow 3 hr 55 minute crawl up? Does that denote significant market momentum worthy of going long? Hell it's a huge pin on H4, take it and see it fail.

What is happening in the now is what matters, not what happened in the past, you do not know what is going to happen next, stop caring and embrace the uncertainty. It's all about NOT caring.

Just some thoughts to ponder, I know many will disagree: that's what makes a market.

Merry Christmas
  • #2,229
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:34am Dec 15, 2011 2:34am
Quoting Forexsaurus
Got in short on the pullback on the M15 TF at 8:30 GMT. Won some and lost some due to setting my SL too tight and re-entering. I had the right idea and was riding the momentum but due to broker spreads and setting too tight SL, it was a net loss. What a loser.
But then I also caught the reversal on the 15 at 10 GMT and now riding that up into a net gain.
  • #2,230
  • Dec 15, 2011 2:59am Dec 15, 2011 2:59am
Quoting robthorp
Hi all, quick question. Does anybody trail their stoploss with this method? if so, at what point etc.
Thanks in advance, Rob
I almost trail my stops once i am in the money a bit. If pa is moving strongly i will take off my TP with a fairly tight TS -- once it is getting very close to hitting it -- and let the trade run. Another option is to close a certain % of your trade and move your Sl to BE +....
If PA is not looking favorable i will set a fairly tight TS to make sure i lock in as many pips as i can just in case my TP was set a bit too far and pa reverses itself.
There are many ways to manage trades once you are in the money, perhaps X-Man, SmokeyD, Vantage, PhX62 can offer better ways to manage trades. Good luck!
  • #2,231
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:02am Dec 15, 2011 3:02am
Just took a punt long cable
  • #2,232
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:02am Dec 15, 2011 3:02am
Quoting gregben
Have moved stop to BE and set TP tentatively just below last high @1.3035. Will monitor and move higher if sufficient momentum.

gregben
I entered Long at 1.29734 and stopped out at 1.30047 with Plus 31.30 Pips.

arasheed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #2,233
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:07am Dec 15, 2011 3:07am
Nice little counter trend trade setting up on the 15 min TF. Green RSI has crossed red Trade Signal line and the 50 to the upside, PA has broken 1.3000 RN and is above the 4 ma with room to run to about the 1.3025, 1.3030 short term resistance.
  • #2,234
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:14am Dec 15, 2011 3:14am
Quoting X-Man
[i]X-Man's Super Simple System (S3)
[color=Blue][size=5][color=Red][color=Blue][color=Red][color=Blue][color=Red][color=Blue][size=4]
[size=3]Hey fellow traders
Welcome to my thread
Here I am going to show you the very easy way of trading that won't need much thinking but just executing. If you follow my rules...
So what about today EU prediction?
  • #2,235
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:14am Dec 15, 2011 3:14am
Nice movements on the M15 today. I think the M15 timeframe is where it's at for the rest of the month as 1H refuses to move anywhere.
  • #2,236
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:29am Dec 15, 2011 3:29am
Quoting Forexsaurus
Nice movements on the M15 today. I think the M15 timeframe is where it's at for the rest of the month as 1H refuses to move anywhere.
You are right. I trade on H1 but from yesterday I look 1 minute and 15 Min Chart for entries, because slow movement due Holidays.

arasheed
  • #2,237
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:32am Dec 15, 2011 3:32am
Hello guys

Before i start giving some of my personal advice , have a look at this chart.
My red arrow indicates a pullback candle, if i were looking at charts then i would definitely go short at the very open of the next candle. I dont wait for a red candle.
The reason why i do this is because my back testing has showed me that it works.
My stop loss would be at the high swing (yellow horizontal line)

So my SL is around 35 pips then would set TP at 35 (1:1)
If you look at the red candle then you will see that your TP wouldve been hit in that very first hour , the red candle moved for around 45 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pullback.jpg Size: 101 KB
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #2,238
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:40am Dec 15, 2011 3:40am
Quoting X-Man
[color=Blue][size=3]Hello guys

Before i start giving some of my personal advice , have a look at this chart.
My red arrow indicates a pullback candle, if i were looking at charts then i would definitely go short at the very open of the next candle. I dont wait for a red candle.
The reason why i do this is because my back testing has showed me that it works.
My stop loss would be at the high swing (yellow horizontal line)

So my SL is around 35 pips then would set TP at 35 (1:1)
If you look at the red candle then you will see that your TP...
X-Man, no matter that the TDI is pointing up ?????
Enter Signature
  • #2,239
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:48am Dec 15, 2011 3:48am
At the moment of entry it pointed down
Made in Ukraine
  • #2,240
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:05am Dec 15, 2011 4:05am
Quoting X-Man
[color=Blue][size=3]Hello guys

Before i start giving some of my personal advice , have a look at this chart.
My red arrow indicates a pullback candle, if i were looking at charts then i would definitely go short at the very open of the next candle. I dont wait for a red candle.
The reason why i do this is because my back testing has showed me that it works.
My stop loss would be at the high swing (yellow horizontal line)

So my SL is around 35 pips then would set TP at 35 (1:1)
If you look at the red candle then you will see that your TP wouldve...
X-man where in the box would you not consider taking a trade in general... I recall you mentioning that 2 or 3 hours in ....then you wait until NY session. So would that point be the read candle on your pic...if not setup had occured time limit wise according to you.
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