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AUD/USD

  • #37,561
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:11pm Dec 12, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
not if you get it at the top of a range and it goes your direction for a few 100 pips... in this case it didnt; however, with a small stop you dont lose that much

...

note: some trader use 100-200 pips stop; that is fine; whatever works for you.
true. however, do you actually have such a perfect entry that you can consistently do this? I could see this being a good method if you are working in short TFs within a proven method. but if you are targeting 100+ tick movements, you are either very good or too impatient.

I don't mind seeing my trade going 10-30 pips against me.. 50+ and I get nervous and, depending on circumstances w/ margin and cap mgt, I may scratch the trade at an appropriate dip/bounce.

take the above with a grain of salt as well - i am not a pro.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,562
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:18pm Dec 12, 2011 8:18pm
no, i am not that good; and sometime take a small lot size with a larger stop (50-100) pips. i was just hoping that the it would push down; if it did; it would be a good ride; if not, i didnt really lose anything.

so, yes, i agree, normally i do that (30-50 pip stop); however, since we are in a demand zone, i dont want to risk.

Quoting redteamgo
true. however, do you actually have such a perfect entry that you can consistently do this? I could see this being a good method if you are working in short TFs within a proven method. but if you are targeting 100+ tick movements, you are either very good or too impatient.

I don't mind seeing my trade going 10-30 pips against me.. 50+ and I get nervous and, depending on circumstances w/ margin and cap mgt, I may scratch the trade at an appropriate dip/bounce.

take the above with a grain of salt as well - i am not a pro.
  • #37,563
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:20pm Dec 12, 2011 8:20pm
i understand where you are coming from; however, since it was the start of a new day (GMT time), sometimes you get a big move (since euro is falling apart)... it was a chance, it didnt work; however, thats why i used very small stop.

Quoting Chillypiper
Proper entry is you best sl. We have been in a 24 pip range for 6 hrs and your making calls of 100 pips prior to the clean brake of the 1.0050... And no real movement as Asia settles in to it session....

Yes your math may be right but reading the PA is not!
  • #37,564
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:22pm Dec 12, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
no, i am not that good; and sometime take a small lot size with a larger stop (50-100) pips. i was just hoping that the it would push down; if it did; it would be a good ride; if not, i didnt really lose anything.

so, yes, i agree, normally i do that (30-50 pip stop); however, since we are in a demand zone, i dont want to risk.
probably a good call. this may range all the way into FOMC tomorrow.

edit: if i seemed rude, definitely did not intend. just curious
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,565
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:27pm Dec 12, 2011 8:27pm
np; i always like feedback; i dont trade full time.

have a full time job and most of the time i dont get to watch the market; all the good move normally happen when i am in a meeting or at 3am when i am sleeping!

therefore sometimes i get impatience and trade; i know i shouldnt; however we did have a quick drop just before the new day; i thought we may have follow thru.

Quoting redteamgo
probably a good call. this may range all the way into FOMC tomorrow.

edit: if i seemed rude, definitely did not intend. just curious
  • #37,566
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:13pm Dec 12, 2011 9:13pm
time to close the trading platform; nothing going on ...
  • #37,567
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:15pm Dec 12, 2011 9:15pm
just a technical retrace
  • #37,568
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:35pm Dec 12, 2011 9:35pm
Not looking good for bulls. FOMC might be a bull trap tomorrow, the daily chart is creeping me out.

I got 13 pips with 5 lots. (long)

Sidelines for now.
  • #37,569
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:38pm Dec 12, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting Halba
just a technical retrace
Looks like we could have a found a temporary bottom.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,570
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:43pm Dec 12, 2011 9:43pm
stopped.... oh welll shoulda waited for confirmation
  • #37,571
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:44pm Dec 12, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting redteamgo
Looks like we could have a found a temporary bottom.
remember the increase in aud from 96 was due to fundamental solution. they had yet another meeting and no solid cash backing.

without any serious cash backing, the world economy will suffer, and aud is a risky currency

i dont think there are any more meetings, so lack of any good news will keep these things capped
  • #37,572
  • Dec 12, 2011 10:50pm Dec 12, 2011 10:50pm
Could retrace back to 1.013 - 1.015 ..London session could push it there..prefer to wait after US retails sales ..
  • #37,573
  • Dec 12, 2011 11:18pm Dec 12, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting Halba
remember the increase in aud from 96 was due to fundamental solution. they had yet another meeting and no solid cash backing.

without any serious cash backing, the world economy will suffer, and aud is a risky currency

i dont think there are any more meetings, so lack of any good news will keep these things capped
I agree, and came to a similar conclusion while taking a brief walk. There is very little that would push these markets up; except a 'year-end' bullish injection by the big guys.

But fundamentally speaking...it's looking rather bleak.

P.S: Dollar under a bit of pressure (USD/JPY-USD/CHF)
  • #37,574
  • Dec 12, 2011 11:37pm Dec 12, 2011 11:37pm
The bulls seems lazy to show up and throw a united strike to the 1.0100 level even though a few kick-starts has been utilized. Will the rising campaign be abandoned? I doubt it because the latest counter-push from the bears is a tempting opportunity to create a higher low that could boost the bull wave well to breach 1.0100

If I were the leader of the bulls' campaign, at least I'll try one more time
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The tone of your words reflects the quality and result of your trading ;-)
  • #37,575
  • Dec 13, 2011 12:08am Dec 13, 2011 12:08am
Quoting andri66
Could retrace back to 1.013 - 1.015 ..London session could push it there..prefer to wait after US retails sales ..
oh yeah retail sales... thanks for reminding me...
taht news will be big positive and market will rally... or could big dissapoint for massive sell
  • #37,576
  • Dec 13, 2011 12:46am Dec 13, 2011 12:46am
Quoting ragnakore
oh yeah retail sales... thanks for reminding me...
taht news will be big positive and market will rally... or could big dissapoint for massive sell
Or will it just stick to this channel?

1H Chart, Puprple square was one of my original shorts to 1.005. That worked a treat, We briefly saw a break of 1.005, so I entered another one, SL just above the channel. If I see resistance at the top of the channel, I'll enter another short.

I'm still not personally convinced about going long here.

Could keeping in the channel see us fall to .994?
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  • #37,577
  • Dec 13, 2011 1:02am Dec 13, 2011 1:02am
Quoting isaacyassar
The bulls seems lazy to show up and throw a united strike to the 1.0100 level even though a few kick-starts has been utilized. Will the rising campaign be abandoned? I doubt it because the latest counter-push from the bears is a tempting opportunity to create a higher low that could boost the bull wave well to breach 1.0100

If I were the leader of the bulls' campaign, at least I'll try one more time
Your analysis is a bit poor mate, can't you see that this short rally has been hampered by a fibo retracement from the previous downtrend (yeah, the big one). It usually retraces downward and continues. To go up, we need to close above it, and yes it could be fundamentally speaking this morning.

Cheers Good vibes, and good luck.
  • #37,578
  • Edited 2:04am Dec 13, 2011 1:35am | Edited 2:04am
Quoting Emanuel
Your analysis is a bit poor mate, can't you see that this short rally has been hampered by a fibo retracement from the previous downtrend (yeah, the big one). It usually retraces downward and continues. To go up, we need to close above it, and yes it could be fundamentally speaking this morning.

Cheers Good vibes, and good luck.
Judging by the candles right now we could be finally leaving this 50 fib level behind soon.

edit: nevermind, was wrong
  • #37,579
  • Dec 13, 2011 1:35am Dec 13, 2011 1:35am
hey everyone just would like to share a aussie short im taking

although might just be a 25 pip scalp.. due to bullish divergence on audusd
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #37,580
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:00am Dec 13, 2011 2:00am
London play before break again 1.0048 & hold for momentum back , waiting .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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