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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #105,141
  • Dec 12, 2011 12:27pm Dec 12, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting Rust
Here I am :
H4 setup , breakout of this wedge .
Entered on H1 BUOB . Buy is a little higher , because 0.9300 is very respected zone in the past . Didn't want to buy into it .
Let's see how is going to progress .
Little update on today's play :
Price shot up so fast ; stop goes to BE . Don't want to allow a 1:1+ trade to make a loss . After this bar closes , I will be thinking to lock a lot of profit ... depends on where the close will be
I have marked off 0.9500 area as a potential target , but I will not chase it at all costs .
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  • #105,142
  • Dec 12, 2011 12:38pm Dec 12, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting Rust
Little update on today's play :
Price shot up so fast ; stop goes to BE . Don't want to allow a 1:1+ trade to make a loss . After this bar closes , I will be thinking to lock a lot of profit ... depends on where the close will be
I have marked off 0.9500 area as a potential target , but I will not chase it at all costs .
nice one Rust, love it
  • #105,143
  • Dec 12, 2011 4:24pm Dec 12, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Olu

I always look for divergence via price, the oscillator is just secondary in my eyes to confirm it. What I mean is I want to visually see price lose its momentum via price itself. The divergence that is now beginning to show on the MACD, could last for a long time. In other words divergence is a "heads up" for me rather then something I can't trade against etc. It's a piece to a puzzle, but if the other pieces don't line up then it's just something to keep an eye on.

Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
I makes perfect sense. Many thanks

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #105,144
  • Dec 12, 2011 4:36pm Dec 12, 2011 4:36pm
Maybe no one remembers me , but anyways I've taken a few months off forex. I got a new job :-)
I read on some thread somewhere advice along these lines...It kinda made sense to me so I did it.

....this forex lark will take a while...the best thing you can do to make more money in the meantime, while you learn is up skills in your current job.

So I did lol and its worked! = Career WIN!

Wish I could quote who said it but I forgot. Thanks anyway.

Leaving me time to get back into this.

Its near the holidays now and not sure about trading this time of year, but will be getting involved and posting charts again soon, all comments welcome.

Atemi
  • #105,145
  • Edited 5:15pm Dec 12, 2011 5:01pm | Edited 5:15pm
just an EURNZD trade... looking for break of 1.7150, entered @1.7285, stp 1.7424... there is a plenty space underneath for pips hunting
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all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
  • #105,146
  • Dec 12, 2011 5:54pm Dec 12, 2011 5:54pm
Quoting atemiwaza
Maybe no one remembers me , but anyways I've taken a few months off forex. I got a new job :-)
I read on some thread somewhere advice along these lines...It kinda made sense to me so I did it.

....this forex lark will take a while...the best thing you can do to make more money in the meantime, while you learn is up skills in your current job.

So I did lol and its worked! = Career WIN!

Wish I could quote who said it but I forgot. Thanks anyway.

Leaving me time to get back into this.

Its near the holidays now and not sure about trading...
Hey Atemi

Welcome back bud, congrats on the new job. That is the smartest way to do things. Take that pressure of and just learn to trade right

Take care
Mike
  • #105,147
  • Dec 12, 2011 6:28pm Dec 12, 2011 6:28pm
Hello everyone
Took this setup last friday. Not the best location, but tradeable nonetheless. PPZ, fourth touch of long term uptrendline and a BUOB with strong close above 1.3600.The previous downmove was steep and due for correction.

I notice strong ppz at 1.3700 -enter above BUOB 1.3630 and stop below minor ppz 1.3550. Now i've been a year into j16 material and i know that if i take less than optimal setups like this my winning rate is around 75%. And i also know that taking full profit at FTA hurts my account balance, because when that 25% loss trade happens, it will wipe out most of my profits if not more. So i look for logical targets further than FTA(1.3700). Notice strong support around 1.3800 so i set my next target at 1.3790. Next,i hope price will move that far and hit my target. I still know that this trade could still go wrong, and based on R:R and 75% win rate, i set my stop at 1.3530 for a 70pip gain vs 100pip loss.

Friday closed and FTA was hit. Close half position for 70 pips gain.Next, i know price will retest 1.3600, so i leave my stop as it was. Again hoping mystop won't get hit.

But on monday price reversed and hit my stop for 100 pips loss. So overall i lost 30 pips.

I wonder if this is a tradeable setup that went wrong (25% of the time) or is there a simpler way of looking at target vs risk that will not hurt account balance in the long run?

Perhaps the seniors could shed some light here
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  • #105,148
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:36pm Dec 12, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting Be Cool
Hello everyone
Took this setup last friday. Not the best location, but tradeable nonetheless. PPZ, fourth touch of long term uptrendline and a BUOB with strong close above 1.3600.The previous downmove was steep and due for correction.

I notice strong ppz at 1.3700 -enter above BUOB 1.3630 and stop below minor ppz 1.3550. Now i've been a year into j16 material and i know that if i take less than optimal setups like this my winning rate is around 75%. And i also know that taking full profit at FTA hurts my account balance, because when that...
hey BC

This is far from a failed setup. So I thought I would jump in here to give my thoughts.

we were just going over this one in the PF today too so it's fresh on my mind. I spoke about this area in my webinar last week. Basically the issue is understanding the environment you are in. You did know it too basically. And there isn't really a right or wrong as trading goes. I mean this thing may have shot straight up and then would you question your motives? BUT if this is something that you are struggling with then its important to look at the possible scenario deeper, or at least I'll give you my perspective for what it might be worth.

I also decided to attach as well that webinar excerpt for you BC


Here was the post I made on the PF as a follow up to this webinar cause the exact situation played out.

Here were a few of those posts for you towards the end. The beginning was just me asking HOW do you deal with this buob IF you decide to trade it. It's what I feel causes a lot of people problems. They try to apply a one size fits all to every situation when one size doesn't fit all. This is a perfect example. So while most of the time maybe you shouldn't take profit at the FTA I'll make the case(since I do it myself) to understand when to do it. Same goes for when to hold vs fold it etc. Again this is all my opinion cause it's simply what I do.

I hope this helps

Mike


--------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted by bobisgood
Price is very sideways, also we are coming off a bearish move. The BRN is good, although not really useful for trade management (reducing risk). Probably taking full profit at FTA would have been the best option, I don't really see what one would do now who is in the trade besides taking a full bar loss...?

---------------------------------------------------------------------
__________________________________________
[quote=mbqb11;98435]yes exactly. But how important that info is. If you are new to this and spotting this nice buob many would think, this thing HAS to keep going. As opposed to the bigger picture here which is, anywhere in the range(see chart) expect further choppiness. I am with you bob, to me this has quick hitter written all over it. IF one really believes in this area holding then I would say possibly at worst moving your stop under the bearish pin the following day.

James always talks about knowing how to deal with ranging markets since they spend so much time ranging. This is a perfect example of, knowing and understanding. Then we just apply.

Good job guys, I am sure others will find this useful. I hope at least.

_____________________________________
webinar excerpt
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=K3VMG68Y
  • #105,149
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:03pm Dec 12, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Fx

There were no good entries for the nzd/sgd so I just watched it. Pattern is no longer there but the area is still good to watch.

Gbp/cad is an easy pass for me. This pair is very very range bound. The pinbar itself is also at a very very sharp swing low placing it in a sideways market. Which means there is no space. Look at all the bar lows and highs at the 1.59 level. If you check a weekly chart you can really see how tight things are

Best
Mike
Hi Mike,
Yes, I agree this pair is very range bound, and i saw the wkly tight range it is in. When u mention it is positioned in very sharp swing low, I presume u are referring to the wkly chart?

As for the NZDSGD, I entered a demo trade on it using FXpro, which printed PB at parity. Can u explain why there were no gd entries? Is it because the PB didn't close below 1.0? A few what-if questions regarding this trade I hope u can help with:

a) Based on this chart where the PB I entered upon break didn't close below 1.0 and the next bar we see a bullish PB, shld i have closed out or adjusted my SL lower?

b) If the PB I entered is closed red and below 1.0 but next bar printed bullish PB that closed above 1.0 as like the one we have here, wld trade management action be any diff from the above scenario (a)?
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  • #105,150
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:07pm Dec 12, 2011 8:07pm
Quoting atemiwaza
Maybe no one remembers me , but anyways I've taken a few months off forex. I got a new job :-)
I read on some thread somewhere advice along these lines...It kinda made sense to me so I did it.

....this forex lark will take a while...the best thing you can do to make more money in the meantime, while you learn is up skills in your current job.

So I did lol and its worked! = Career WIN!

Wish I could quote who said it but I forgot. Thanks anyway.

Leaving me time to get back into this.

Its near the holidays now and not sure about trading this...
Hay Atemi. Thats graet new's on the new job. Trading is very time consouming and takes most peaple a couple of years to get the hang of it. I have ben at it for just over a year now spending every day studying. I'm getting fairly good at it ( sometimes better then others) but i still have a long way to go. As the saying gose dont quit you'r day job. Not yet anyway.
  • #105,151
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:13pm Dec 12, 2011 8:13pm
Quoting mbqb11
hey BC

This is far from a failed setup. So I thought I would jump in here to give my thoughts.

we were just going over this one in the PF today too so it's fresh on my mind. I spoke about this area in my webinar last week. Basically the issue is understanding the environment you are in. You did know it too basically. And there isn't really a right or wrong as trading goes. I mean this thing may have shot straight up and then would you question your motives? BUT if this is something that you are struggling with then its important to...
Thanks MIke for sharing this. In my opinion, trade management skill (i.e. when to fold vs hold, when to take all profit at FTA etc) is the hardest to pick up. Love it when you talk abt this topic
  • #105,152
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:58pm Dec 12, 2011 8:58pm
Quoting Be Cool
Hello everyone
Took this setup last friday. Not the best location,...
I notice strong ppz at 1.3700 .. Next,i hope price will move that far...
Friday closed and FTA was hit. Close half position for 70 pips gain.Next, i know price will retest 1.3600, so i leave my stop as it was. Again hoping my stop won't get hit...
Hello Sir D,
the problem & at the same time the answer/s were right inside your post.

-you know price is range-bound & the setup was not at the best location
-you were aware of the 1.3700 PPZ & as an FTA it got hit
-but at the same time, u were trading with 'hope'.

if u trade with hope, u tend to have a fixed mindset. that is, from your post:
-u hoped price will move that far
-u hoped your stop wont get hit

it would be better to be flexible/adapatable, so u get a flexible/alert mindset. this way u are ready & u are prepared to make trade management decisions quickly:
- "i hope price will move that far. but if it doesn't, i will do X. if price does Y, i do Y1"

finally, if u felt this was not the best setup, then it should follow that u shouldn't have expected too much from it.

just a bit more reverb of Sir Mike's post.
hey, i hope u are aware that u have made great progress already.
  • #105,153
  • Dec 13, 2011 12:51am Dec 13, 2011 12:51am
Hi Mike and SC
Thank you for the kind words. Yes i am aware that it was not the best setup. If one wants to trade the best setups ideally he/she should trade many instruments, like Marcus does. However, here i am stuck with a micro account and have no choice but to look for tradeable forex setups and may settle for less than BEST setups LOL

Correct me if i am wrong, but this is my current understanding of trading so far.Location is key. The more confluence the better. Also the stronger the area the better.If one knows good locations, one can use PA bar, candlestick, or even TT as trigger

I am also under the impression that a setup at great location, price can move far beyond FTA.Therefore, with the best setups, we do not want to take full profit at FTA or go to BE at FTA because many times price will retest the entry/PPZ after reaching FTA before continue to move further in our direction.My problem with setups like this is they are rare.

Which brings me to less than optimal setups that happen more often. I tried taking full profit at FTA on these setups but in the long run its not good for my account. Because most of the time the risk in pips is many times larger than the profit at FTA.Only rare occassion,the PPZ position coveniently reduce the stop, for 1:1 -in that case i will take full profit at FTA.

These days i try a different approach. I close half position at FTA and leave my stop as they were until the market gives me a new place to move my stop. Either price moves further than FTA or i end up with nothing. Do you think this approach can net positive in the long run? I am sure you have tried this before

Please advise
  • #105,154
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:11am Dec 13, 2011 7:11am
Quoting Be Cool
Hello everyone
Took this setup last friday. Not the best location, but tradeable nonetheless. PPZ, fourth touch of long term uptrendline and a BUOB with strong close above 1.3600.The previous downmove was steep and due for correction.

I notice strong ppz at 1.3700 -enter above BUOB 1.3630 and stop below minor ppz 1.3550. Now i've been a year into j16 material and i know that if i take less than optimal setups like this my winning rate is around 75%. And i also know that taking full profit at FTA hurts my account balance, because when that...
Just an observation on this, while it's not a cool place to be at where draw down is so low already, it's not uncommon for BEOB/BUOB's to break/ pull back and then carry on up.

I believe that this BUOB has not yet failed as price has not gone past the bottom end of it at 1.3476 . (not that I would like to hold on all the way down) the 1.35 mark is going to be a very strong support point.

Dave
  • #105,155
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:41am Dec 13, 2011 7:41am
Quoting Be Cool
Hi Mike and SC
Thank you for the kind words. Yes i am aware that it was not the best setup. If one wants to trade the best setups ideally he/she should trade many instruments, like Marcus does. However, here i am stuck with a micro account and have no choice but to look for tradeable forex setups and may settle for less than BEST setups LOL

Please advise
Hey BC

To be honest this is the biggest issue. You can't be focused on your account size. Taking a micro account to some big huge account is going to mean either taking extremely high risk, which will likely blow up your account, or take lots of much poorer setups that will slowly deplete your account. Be focused on trading right WHILE you build an account. Even if it takes you years and years of building and adding. Taking bad setups will not get you to that finish line as using FX to slowly build an account and add it to it will. Think long term.

Great setups are not as rare as people make them out to be. If you are watching say 60+ fx markets( finding 3-5 trades a month is no stretch to me). At 3-5 GREAT trades a month one can easily pull fantastic returns. The problem again ties right back up to the first thing you wrote. That's those returns will probably be peanuts to you and you will then go looking for more to increase you trade total because your account is small. You can not think like that. This is why James always talks about account size and most people get stopped at this hurdle. I think it would be more beneficial for you to demo/paper multiple markets while you build an account so you can see the true power of compounding and % on an account that means something to you. Those who want to turn a micro to riches will mostly fail unless it's done with a long term mindset, adding to that account, and a lot of patience.

As for the trading itself I won't restate what I said in the previous post(because that would be my answer again to the second half of your questions), but I personally believe very highly in interpreting each situation individually. Finding the best course of action. You gotta keep testing and keep trying what works for you. The previous post is what works for me.

Best
Mike
  • #105,156
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:43am Dec 13, 2011 7:43am
Quoting Fx7877
Hi Mike,
Yes, I agree this pair is very range bound, and i saw the wkly tight range it is in. When u mention it is positioned in very sharp swing low, I presume u are referring to the wkly chart?

As for the NZDSGD, I entered a demo trade on it using FXpro, which printed PB at parity. Can u explain why there were no gd entries? Is it because the PB didn't close below 1.0? A few what-if questions regarding this trade I hope u can help with:

a) Based on this chart where the PB I entered upon break didn't close below 1.0 and the next bar we...
Hey FX

Yep the pin closed way to weak. Also look how it was back "in" the pattern we had drawn. That means that the story I was creating was not in tact anymore making it trickier. The good thing is if that pin was traded you have a very easy level for trade mgmt. Both the 1.0 and the previous highs to the left of the pin. Not a bad pin to enter. I just have a lot more rules that come into play.

Best
Mike
  • #105,157
  • Dec 13, 2011 10:16am Dec 13, 2011 10:16am
4hr breakout on the Eur/Usd after the 4hr PB off the 1.32.
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  • #105,158
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:14am Dec 13, 2011 11:14am
Quoting mbqb11
price retraced to the BRN after the weekend. Notice the last bar high over to the left of the BEOB. So a logical spot to reduce half my risk on this trade(always important for me). Now I just look to the next trouble areas, using the same concepts of PPZ, patterns, RD numbers, etc.

Hope everyone had a nice weekend
Mike
Hi Mike

Hope you're well. I've been paging back a few day and was interested to find out from you how you placed your stops on the Bu/Be OB's?

Thanks for your help,
Dave
  • #105,159
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:48am Dec 13, 2011 11:48am
Today every pair is looking explosive ... Happy birthday Mr. Bernanke!
all is eternal - this is good news for people who loves bad news
  • #105,160
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:12pm Dec 13, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting Mpondondo
Hi Mike

Hope you're well. I've been paging back a few day and was interested to find out from you how you placed your stops on the Bu/Be OB's?

Thanks for your help,
Dave
Hey Dave

The majority of the time I keep my stops above/below the bar to start. That's probably 90% of the time I do that

Best
Mike
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