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  • #5,661
  • Dec 9, 2011 7:49am Dec 9, 2011 7:49am
I got +20 pips this morning on London OPen

NY Open - B/E
  • #5,662
  • Dec 9, 2011 8:31am Dec 9, 2011 8:31am
Nice job, SmartGXL!

I've been thinking about exit strategies and how to make consistent pips on smaller wins, which happen more often, without sacrificing the big wins that happen less frequently. Since we were only 6 pips short of the +140 EPIC win today, I will share this thought now.

I'm thinking that the way to exit a profitable trade is in stages. You identify various profit targets, say, +20, +50, +75, and +140, according to their historical probability of being hit. You can use 2 targets, 3 targets, 8 targets, however many you like, and whatever levels you like.

When your trade hits +20 first level, you take 1/4 profits. When it hits +50 second level, you take another 1/4 profits, and move the remaining 2 trades to +20SL. When it hits +75 you take the third 1/4 profits and move the last trade to +75SL. If it hits +140 then you aren't kicking yourself for missing one of the few epic wins.

I don't know how this would affect overall profitability, or how many levels to use or what levels to use. Especially since we rely on the 2 pip SL to give us 10, 25, or 70 times R:R. We may find that it's most profitable in the long run to just take full positions on +20 TP every time. But Josh I think your EA would allow us to enter these variables and test it.

Just my thoughts on optimizing this system.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,663
  • Dec 9, 2011 9:28am Dec 9, 2011 9:28am
Quoting AlienFrog
It worked!!!! It actually ran!!! I am dancing circles around my desk!

I still have some things to work out that will take time though.

I got Journal results for trades over a 1 year run. That appears to be working great.

I don't know how to confirm that it is using the test data I downloaded - maybe delete it, then try to run the EA again and see if it fails?

I assume it is using tick data from within the TF files. When I ran the JForex2FXT script it created a big .FXT file, and a bunch of .HST files like EURUSD1.HST, EURUSD5.HST,...
For this chart, was the test run using the +140 TP point?
  • #5,664
  • Edited 10:17am Dec 9, 2011 9:54am | Edited 10:17am
Quoting SmartGXL
For this chart, was the test run using the +140 TP point?
Um... yes. set to +140.

So... I changed it to +20 and ran it again - much different results! Screenshot below.

I need to go through it in detail now to make sure it's using correct data, calculating correctly, etc. The trade size keeps changing, too. Am I interpreting this right? (second screenshot).

But just the fact that it's running is absolutely fantastic! Thanks guys for your work to get to this point!!!

EDIT: First screenshot was error. I replaced it. I had changed the TP setting to +20 but it was still showing +140 trades in the Report window. I compiled it as well this time, and it looks like it made the change ok.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic1.jpg Size: 168 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pic3.jpg Size: 74 KB
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,665
  • Dec 9, 2011 10:18am Dec 9, 2011 10:18am
These are the settings in the EA. I use Oanda. Am I missing anything? What is the sleepsig file?

extern bool brokerIsECN = true;
extern int gmtOffset = 0;
extern double risk = 2.0;
extern double maxSpread = 2.0;
extern double pendingLong = 0.0;
extern double pendingShort = 0.0;
extern double movementThreshold = 1.0;
extern double moveSLto15 = 0.5;
extern double moveSLto10 = 1.0;
extern double moveSLto05 = 1.5;
extern double moveSLto00 = 2.0;
extern int takeProfit = 20;
extern bool create_sleepsig_file = true;
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,666
  • Dec 9, 2011 10:51am Dec 9, 2011 10:51am
The simplest things/inventions in life have made most of the millionaires in this world and I have a stronger feeling that this is not only simple but will also make me one in about 2 years. The stop on London Open last night was higher than usual because I make manual entries and it was a late one.... when things like that happen just before friday it's a bit dangerous for a guy like me. Take care guys Epic wins for the epic winners in life, it feels good.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,667
  • Edited 12:07pm Dec 9, 2011 11:51am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Um... yes. set to +140.

So... I changed it to +20 and ran it again - much different results! Screenshot below.

I need to go through it in detail now to make sure it's using correct data, calculating correctly, etc. The trade size keeps changing, too. Am I interpreting this right? (second screenshot).

But just the fact that it's running is absolutely fantastic! Thanks guys for your work to get to this point!!!

EDIT: First screenshot was error. I replaced it. I had changed the TP setting to +20 but...
This is pretty damn good...it appears that +20 TP trades win approximately 38% of the time.

Do the "losing" trades in the report take into consideration the BreakEvens? Or, are the winning trades assuming those breakeven trades into the winning percentage?

Also, was this for one currency pair, for one year?
  • #5,668
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:44pm Dec 9, 2011 12:44pm
Also, i want to say that the +20 TP win rate of 38% sounds a little too optimistic...I would cut that in half to say that it wins 19% of the time...even with that, my calculations are that it would still be profitable:

For every 100 trades:
19 wins
81 losses
No Break evens (I am assuming this, to make the results very conservative "worst case" scenario)

Assuming a $20 risk per trade, that means we earn $174 on a winning trade, so that would be gross revenue from 19 winning trades = $3306, less losing trades ($1620) equals Net Profit of $1686. This is still pretty damn good.

This assumes 100 trades, but there are, on average, 528 trading opportunities per year. so multiply that figure by 5.28, to arrive at a net profit of $8902 (I am starting with a $2000 account, which means that at the end of that year i would have $10902 in my trading account). Also,this does not include compounding, which I will do every time my account balance reaches a new "High Score".
  • #5,669
  • Dec 9, 2011 3:22pm Dec 9, 2011 3:22pm
may someone till me where is the last EA version for this strategy
If its not boring .. you are not trading correctly
  • #5,670
  • Edited Dec 11, 2011 6:11am Dec 10, 2011 8:59pm | Edited Dec 11, 2011 6:11am
Quoting jrodatus
It's pretty safe to assume that Josh sticks to the method defined by its original creator- as close as possible. The basis for my 2-pip trailing stop is the example Tony gave in the official rules on the first page. Also, somewhere in the thread here, Tony defined the "direction of the first candle" as its first movement of 1.0 pip. He also said that if the first candle fails to move one pip, then look at the next one, and so on. He also wrote that he tries to move SL to BE as soon as it hits +2 profit. All of this is effectively what my code...
Thanks, Josh, you're right, I got confused by some other posts and charts. But browsing the thread again I found now some other comments from Tony where he specified to enter in the initial direction of 2 pips after the open (posts#: 4619, 4664, 4979, 5018). Also, in post# 5493, he mentioned to enter right at 8:00:01 (after 1 sec). I am going to stick with your description except enter after the first 2 pips. Then we should move to BE (trailing SL) after 2 more pips.
r u ready?
  • #5,671
  • Dec 11, 2011 11:05am Dec 11, 2011 11:05am
Quoting rtrs111
Thanks, Josh, you're right, I got confused by some other posts and charts. But browsing the thread again I found now some other comments from Tony where he specified to enter in the initial direction of 2 pips after the open (posts#: 4619, 4664, 4979, 5018). Also, in post# 5493, he mentioned to enter right at 8:00:01 (after 1 sec). I am going to stick with your description except enter after the first 2 pips. Then we should move to BE (trailing SL) after 2 more pips.
I agree, this is pretty much the way I understand the system...watch the market like a hawk, on the 5 second chart, and then as soon as you see the market finally move 2.0 pips, you enter in that direction. Move to BE as soon as the market moves 2 more pips in that direction.
  • #5,672
  • Dec 11, 2011 1:07pm Dec 11, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting SmartGXL
This is pretty damn good...it appears that +20 TP trades win approximately 38% of the time.

Do the "losing" trades in the report take into consideration the BreakEvens? Or, are the winning trades assuming those breakeven trades into the winning percentage?

Also, was this for one currency pair, for one year?
Please realize that I posted these results 1) to show that I got the EA to run, and 2) to ask questions about it, like why the lot size changes. This is NOT a good backtest. There is a lot of work to do before that will be possible.

Yes, this was run on only one pair, EU, for about one year.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,673
  • Dec 11, 2011 5:26pm Dec 11, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Please realize that I posted these results 1) to show that I got the EA to run, and 2) to ask questions about it, like why the lot size changes. This is NOT a good backtest. There is a lot of work to do before that will be possible.

Yes, this was run on only one pair, EU, for about one year.
Ok, good job in getting the EA to run!

For now, I would not worry about why the EA changed the lot sizes (maybe it has something to do with trying to compound, or trying to adjust for shrinking available margin after losing streaks). My main concern are the results themselves, as in, what are the actual win/loss ratios...i.e. how many wins to losses...just getting a good feel for that will be a big boost to determining if the system can be profitable over the long term (when I have viewed these types of test results in the past, I only pay attention to the log of wins and losses to see how that looked, to see if it looks realistic and to apply my money management to see how it looks).
  • #5,674
  • Dec 11, 2011 8:39pm Dec 11, 2011 8:39pm
still floating, you can call it persistence and discipline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ee6.jpg Size: 56 KB
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,675
  • Dec 11, 2011 9:25pm Dec 11, 2011 9:25pm
hi......tony....very interested of Central Bank
btw.what broker do u use, i'cant find 5second in mt4.......
  • #5,676
  • Dec 11, 2011 10:43pm Dec 11, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting Tony112
still floating, you can call it persistence and discipline
Good job Tony, hope this one wins!
  • #5,677
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:04am Dec 12, 2011 2:04am
Ok, I got -2 SL just now, but I should have gotten B/E. For some reason, OANDA would not let me modify the trade to B/E, even though the position had moved up to 5 pips into profit after entering the trade...not sure what happened.
  • #5,678
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:34am Dec 12, 2011 2:34am
Ok I just double checked, and I actually only lost 1.1 pips, which is the SL that I had set in the Order Ticket....maybe I am doing it wrong?

I was thinking that the correct settings in the Order Ticket, was to set to 20Tp and 1.1 SL...that way the SL will be 1.1 pips, PLUS the spread (which was at 1.4 pips), for a 2.5 pip total SL, but apparantly I did not do it right? I am not sure...Tony, can you tell me what you are putting in your SL field on the Order Ticket?
  • #5,679
  • Dec 12, 2011 5:06am Dec 12, 2011 5:06am
Hi, Tony!

The system looks nice. Sorry, if it's a personal question: do you manage to make living off of this? And how's your health with all the sleep deprivation?

Good luck
  • #5,680
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:12am Dec 12, 2011 7:12am
Entered at NY open at 3276, stopped at 3274, used 0.8 SL + 1.2 spread, didn't catch the big drop after that. Wondered if I should keep entering on each side of a 2 pip channel from the opening, but I'm sure it could happen that price could range there and kill your account.
r u ready?
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