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AUD/USD

  • #37,441
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:40pm Dec 9, 2011 12:40pm
  •  Cosi
  • | Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Little girl on the way! Due April!! | 36 Posts
Just entered short @ 1.0200 Something has to give, just hope not my account. 2 months of all winning trades and I go screw up last night by getting in long at 1.008 and not letting it run to this point. I screwed up big time by placing a S/L, (I ussually never do) and closed @ 1.0050 This is the result of being tired & stupid
  • #37,442
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:56pm Dec 9, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting Cosi
Just entered short @ 1.0200 Something has to give, just hope not my account. 2 months of all winning trades and I go screw up last night by getting in long at 1.008 and not letting it run to this point. I screwed up big time by placing a S/L, (I ussually never do) and closed @ 1.0050 This is the result of being tired & stupid
What is your TP?
  • #37,443
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:21pm Dec 9, 2011 1:21pm
Unfortunately I went short at the wrong time. Do you think it will go a bit lower in the last 3 hours or on Monday?

News on Monday:

Mon Dec 12
1:30 AUD Home Loans m/m 0.2% 2.2%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance 2.12B 2.56B
  • #37,444
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:24pm Dec 9, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting w1nner
Unfortunately I went short at the wrong time. Do you think it will go a bit lower in the last 3 hours or on Monday?

News on Monday:

Mon Dec 12
1:30 AUD Home Loans m/m 0.2% 2.2%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance 2.12B 2.56B
AUD's weekly chart is slightly bearish and i believe if you with proper money management, you could either cut off your loss wait for a better time and price action to short or you could hold for long-term to close it around 0.97XX in the future.
  • #37,445
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:27pm Dec 9, 2011 1:27pm
Still trying to figure out why this pair will still go up..
  • #37,446
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:40pm Dec 9, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Bought the dip @ 1.0090. Took 2 lots there. Moved stop to BE. Going to let these run a little. A shot of good news could send us right back over 1.0300. Good trades to all!

Regards
Got the same Net buy.

AUD/USD H1
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  • #37,447
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:41pm Dec 9, 2011 1:41pm
trying a short @ 1.0220

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #37,448
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:51pm Dec 9, 2011 1:51pm
The reason Ive been so bullish on the Aud/usd... is because there is so much at stake... I feel they are going to throw everything they can at it.... and Hopium gets everything as High as Possible....before it all comes crumbling down....


I see convergence between the 1.0754-.9663 fib - on the 4th line and the downward trendline btw 1.08x-1.07x.....
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  • #37,449
  • Dec 9, 2011 3:00pm Dec 9, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting USD-Bear
trying a short @ 1.0220

Attachment
taking too long, closed
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #37,450
  • Dec 9, 2011 3:30pm Dec 9, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting fosking
Got the same Net buy.

AUD/USD H1
Attachment
Closed +230
  • #37,451
  • Dec 9, 2011 5:11pm Dec 9, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting ragnakore
Entering short 1.0170 ... small. Stops 1.0210 TP 1.0130 to 1.0080


BUT! beware. S&P pushing up..
shoulda listened to instinct... fridays suck...
still big up for the week though
  • #37,452
  • Dec 9, 2011 8:16pm Dec 9, 2011 8:16pm
  •  Cosi
  • | Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Little girl on the way! Due April!! | 36 Posts
Quoting Jowy
What is your TP?
Sorry for the late reply. I don’t have a set T/P. I take whatever the market can give to me. Sometimes she gives plenty on one trade other times I spend the day taking 10 to 15 pips at a time and I end up having to repeat this over and over till I get 100 to 150 pips or so, I roll over all profits into next trade so by the end of the week I more than doubled account, unfortunately when it goes against me it hurts, all in all I had one loosing trade in the past 2 months and it was only 30 pips. At the end of the month I take out all I made and start again from the same spot. I don’t usually use S/L or T/p but make sure that I can cover 400+ pips in the wrong direction, this does not mean I let it go that far against me it’s just that when you use a stop loss you guarantee to lose at some point & by doing it manually It gives me a chance to either ride it out or get some of my loss back. I do have a point when I just bail but that’s only if my charts start getting crushed by the news & I see that it will take too long to get back. My T/P is based on charts but will let it run past my close signal if news is in my favor. I left this trade running over the weekend. I’ll be honest and say it does not look all that good but won’t know for sure till market opens. This is all I do so I don’t mind spending all day by the computer; in fact I love it and have come to hate the weekends.
  • #37,453
  • Dec 10, 2011 8:46am Dec 10, 2011 8:46am
My view for AUDUSD for the upcoming week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily PA currently in a symmetrical triangle with neither bulls nor bears in charge. Red trendline is bearish divergence while Blue is bullish divergence. There was a false upside break on thursday following the ECB rate, probably a bull trap.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you look at the H4 chart, there was a bearish divergence, if you draw a fib from the low of the bear divergence to the top, it shows perfectly that there was a retracement to 38.2 before hitting the extension 61.8 and promptly coming down. That to me means that the bullish reversal from 28 nov was completed on thursday

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Taking a look at the H1, as mentioned above, the upside move was completed last thursday after achieving the extension 61.8 and from that point, if a fib is drawn, price was met with some resistance at 38.2 before before go back up and now hovering at fib 61.8

Now, ideally price should take it's time to reach 61.8 and take just long enough to meet a time symmetry to retracement to 61.8 where the daily bear trendline lies.

What's more, that area is a good supply area as seen with the PA dance around that level.

If the retracement completes, we could see parity where the next expected support is to be.

Thanks for reading. Please give me your views and advise accordingly.
  • #37,454
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:35pm Dec 10, 2011 2:35pm
Very nice comprehensive analasist..

Quoting jayjb

My view for AUDUSD for the upcoming week.
  • #37,455
  • Edited 1:31am Dec 11, 2011 1:16am | Edited 1:31am
Morning , checking this pair if any great opportunity next week open to start & if so ,so many pairs will do that though including eu & gu favourite .

anyway seems it already broken key limit levels & just should follow the course . yet better go with next minor confirmations of 1.0204 & 1.0177 .no other pair having such possibilty so far perhaps yet .
so will watch & do it next whenever possible .if works will care at last confirmation level around 0.9787 as it also in a triangle may jump before dump again
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #37,456
  • Dec 11, 2011 7:57am Dec 11, 2011 7:57am
Im not sure where this will go.
I'd wait for S&P to show the direction.

I am however bearish on EURUSD.
And if AUDUSD is bullish, then I could short EURAUD for more kick.
  • #37,457
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:06pm Dec 11, 2011 3:06pm
not familiar with this pair; but sounds like a good trade.

Quoting ragnakore
Im not sure where this will go.
I'd wait for S&P to show the direction.

I am however bearish on EURUSD.
And if AUDUSD is bullish, then I could short EURAUD for more kick.
  • #37,458
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:47pm Dec 11, 2011 3:47pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0205

It just goes to show you how pathetic the markets are when stocks can rally on an EU summit that was full of BS and UK decided to vote against.

So we have Trade data out today in Australia. I would be looking to use any rally as a selling opportunity.

1.0250-60 1st res
1.0300-10 2nd res

1.0140-50 1st sup
1.0100-10 2nd sup
  • #37,459
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:52pm Dec 11, 2011 3:52pm
Something to ponder, yes, another RUMOR:

Quote
FLASH: RUMOR ON SWEDBANK's DEFAULT. PANIC AMONG CLIENTS WHO WITHDRAW MONEY AT ATMs. $EURUSD

This rumor is supposed to hit EURUSD.
*IF* this bank falls, it will signal some panic in the EuroZone which will drive :RISK APPETITE: down bringing AUDUSD down as well.

Quote
Latvian Financial Inspection denies rumours about #SWEDBANK . Security Police to investigate sources of 'black propaganda'

then

Quote
Just confirmed that the amount taken out from Swedbank is three times the normal amounts.

3 Times the amount.. Hmmm.. can you consider that Bank Run? Ummm maybe not yet.. unless 3times means bank dont have money left afterwards..

With so many rumors around, better not jump the gun


On the otherside of the world:
Quote
ANZ senior dealer Alex Sinton says of UK, 'they are certainly not going to have any favors done.' Overall, EU summit accord did nothing to address the economic issues of Europe. At the end of the day this is going to be a long, long process.' -ANZ Alex Sinton

I believe the EU Summit was lower that what people hoped, but was better than what people feared. But Im leaning towards "it was still bad"
  • #37,460
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:59pm Dec 11, 2011 3:59pm
My guess:

1st to 1.0050
Then, to 1.0500
Use me as a contrarian indicator
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