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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #1,821
  • Dec 8, 2011 10:18am Dec 8, 2011 10:18am
Hey Guys,

I am short this thing, with a very healthy profit already ( 2.3% ) and a break-even stop .

I am hoping it falls of a cliff!!


CJ.-
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  • #1,822
  • Dec 8, 2011 10:32am Dec 8, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Mr.C
In progress.
Never ever even start to think about a home-run trade. B/e with this one.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #1,823
  • Dec 8, 2011 11:40am Dec 8, 2011 11:40am
Todays daily analysis conducted post London open.

https://meet28873896.adobeconnect.co...&pbMode=normal
  • #1,824
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:25pm Dec 8, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Mr.C
No laugh can be generated out of an idea or thought. Only a discussion. Talking about EUR/AUD I can see a wedge like formation on H1. So if you mean the up move now it might be possible but I'll stay aside for a while. Trend and etc. But for me more interesting is the daily view. We're traveling down to the zone (lower TL) and the today's 100% range is almost spot on the line. Will be watching this one.
Hi Mr C.

Follow up my very speculative call here

Here was my thinking.... A chart will explain it better then words....

First chart is DAILY
Second chart is 30 MIN

dazz
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  • #1,825
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:50pm Dec 8, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting wmd
Todays daily analysis conducted post London open.

https://meet28873896.adobeconnect.co...&pbMode=normal
Awesome Will!

The aussie and pound behaved in a similar to kiwi.

Sometimes a post "rings in your ears" and you tuck it away in your brain, only to make full sense of it later down the track.

Case in point, I remember merlin (who's obviously another brillant trader) making a post some years back saying the a failed breakout (or failed pattern) can provide a much better trading opportunity then a successful breakout.

Over the years, I have been mindful of this, and have found merlin's statement to be true. I find though that the entries can be little tricky though, as the move can be so furious, you do no get a pullback you hope for to get in. Case in point, that's what happened to me on the kiwi. I did not get entry on a pullback inside the box.

Great analysis.

dazz
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  • #1,826
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:11pm Dec 8, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting dazzdude
Awesome Will!
...
Great analysis.
dazz
Will, if you have the time, I would apprecaite any comments on my previous analysis.

I was expecting a reversal on kiwi a week ago, and in fact, the reversal came exactly as I expected it to. I even posted the candle setup here where I found to be very reliable on daily candles in futures.

Below is a follow up on the chart here

dazz
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  • #1,827
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:29pm Dec 8, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting dazzdude
Awesome Will!

The aussie and pound behaved in a similar to kiwi.

Sometimes a post "rings in your ears" and you tuck it away in your brain, only to make full sense of it later down the track.

Case in point, I remember merlin (who's obviously another brillant trader) making a post some years back saying the a failed breakout (or failed pattern) can provide a much better trading opportunity then a successful breakout.

Over the years, I have been mindful of this, and have found merlin's statement to be true. I find though that the entries...
With a fake out on a box break you dont need to wait for a pullback, once the price is back in the box the false break is over, traders are trapped, and its your turn to dish out some punishement.

The issue is to recognise whats happening before it happens.

In the case of a box, the price has a peculiar structure which if you learn to recognise it will always be a tell.

See for example chart attached, box break out on le-Euro. Note the similarity in structure; these structures seldom change.

You get nuances, so the Euro gave a little pullback just after it broke back in to the box, Kiwi didn't, but its not the pullback that triggers the trade, its price breaking back in the box.
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  • #1,828
  • Dec 8, 2011 5:42pm Dec 8, 2011 5:42pm
Not than I can mix with the big guys (yet), but here is something that caught my eye in the euro on the 4h chart. Will be interesting to watch if price reaches the highlighted area and how it comes out of it.
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  • #1,829
  • Dec 8, 2011 9:07pm Dec 8, 2011 9:07pm
Sorry this is a little bit of topic, I am just wondering what time (ideally) GST do you have your first 4 hour candle starting in the day?

I am using NinjaTrader and I know I can control this using the session templates and I thought it might be good having it in synch with everyone else.

Thanks Thomas
  • #1,830
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:46am Dec 9, 2011 12:46am
Quoting hometrading
Sorry this is a little bit of topic, I am just wondering what time (ideally) GST do you have your first 4 hour candle starting in the day?

I am using NinjaTrader and I know I can control this using the session templates and I thought it might be good having it in synch with everyone else.

Thanks Thomas
Great qu. I had the same question a couple of years back.

Answer is.. there is no standard. Different brokers use different times.

The solution that was offered me by someone far more experienced... trade the candles you see!

If anyone has a better answer, I am all ears...

dazz
  • #1,831
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:05am Dec 9, 2011 1:05am
continuing on with the current theme....
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  • #1,832
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:12am Dec 9, 2011 1:12am
in line with our current topic....

I still find entry hard though. Aussie and Kiwi played out exactly as hoped, but I still missed the entry. maybe I should just set a sell stop and be done with it....
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  • #1,833
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:23am Dec 9, 2011 1:23am
Quoting hometrading
Sorry this is a little bit of topic, I am just wondering what time (ideally) GST do you have your first 4 hour candle starting in the day?
...
Thanks Thomas
I find that it doesn't matter much cause in any case you are only looking for an approximate area in 4H, you fine tune stuff in lower TF
  • #1,834
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:23am Dec 9, 2011 1:23am
Quoting wmd
Todays daily analysis conducted post London open.

https://meet28873896.adobeconnect.co...&pbMode=normal
wmd,

Beautifully done.
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  • #1,835
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:29am Dec 9, 2011 1:29am
Quoting fuzzy
Dazz, Challenger78,

thanks for taking time to give the feedback.

This trade had me worried for a moment, when the price spiked down then reversed. Was tempted, as usual, to close manually but decided to keep to the trading plan.

Cheers, Fuzzy
Glad to be of help. Not to spoil the party here, but this was mostly luck helping your good choice, I am saying this for future reference:

You were trading before a big event, namely the ECB rate decision in the middle of a huge eurozone crisis, in this case price can go either direction in a big way as it just happened, depending what Draghi anounces as measures to fight the crisis (which was seen as inadequate by the market, hence the risk off sentiment that pushed USDCAD higher).

The good news is that this pair moves so slowly that you still had time to exit in a small loss if things went wrong. Sorry if I sound harsh, I just hope to help you avoid losing money in the future by avoiding pitfals. All the best.
  • #1,836
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:45am Dec 9, 2011 1:45am
Quoting hometrading
Not than I can mix with the big guys (yet), but here is something that caught my eye in the euro on the 4h chart. Will be interesting to watch if price reaches the highlighted area and how it comes out of it.
well spotted. Also double bottom (almost) in 15M EURUSD. I am long since below 1.3 this morning, besides the technical aspect, I believe the eurozone summit today reached important decisions that are currently underestimated by the markets, which are still influenced by a never ending/world ending pessimism all over the bologsphere and especially in the US, and i reckon they will wake up to a big surprise if stops start triggering above 1.3350 resistance. My target 1.55 though it is early to feel sure about it yet. All the best
  • #1,837
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:47am Dec 9, 2011 1:47am
It's a journey.

I ended last week by sharing a couple of candle setups.

This week, thought I would share a litle story as the idea behind it may be beneficial to someone.

I have been a long, windy road. But 'part' of the journey has been like this....

1. Trying to pick tops and bottom. Get burnt, lots of pain. Eventually stop that silly game away. Pain stops...

2. Increase skills, learn how to pick tops and bottoms that often work. However, too chicken shit to pull the trigger. Been hurt too many times. Watch all that pips I could have had.... mild amount of pain.

3. Eventually start pulling the trigger on some trades, with caution. Get some good entries... set some Santa Claus exits... but chicken out and take a small profit (e.g. 50 pips). Happy... but see some trades run 400,500,600, etc pips and think... oh man... should have stuck to my plan! Why do I make plans and then not follow them out!

That's kinda where I am now.

Example... called setup, entry works (current price below)

... but although I "wanted" to let it run... I take a small profit (even before target 1) and don't follow through with my plan

4. Next step (my current hurdle)... having the faith to believe in my analysis, the disciple to excute it, and the patience to see it through.

Hopefully someone can take something from this. Writing it down may help me as well.

dazz
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  • #1,838
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:51am Dec 9, 2011 1:51am
Quoting wmd
With a fake out on a box break you dont need to wait for a pullback, once the price is back in the box the false break is over, traders are trapped, and its your turn to dish out some punishement.

The issue is to recognise whats happening before it happens.

In the case of a box, the price has a peculiar structure which if you learn to recognise it will always be a tell.

See for example chart attached, box break out on le-Euro. Note the similarity in structure; these structures seldom change.

You get nuances, so the Euro gave a little pullback...
Wmn,

Another great explanation. This is the best thread on FF. I've tried to tell traders this before but most ignore it. I do the same on breaks or hits of major SR's as well which allows the PA to run either to a trendline or another SR.

Johnny
  • #1,839
  • Dec 9, 2011 2:20am Dec 9, 2011 2:20am
Quoting dazzdude
It's a journey.

I ended last week by sharing a couple of candle setups.

This week, thought I would share a litle story as the idea behind it may be beneficial to someone.

I have been a long, windy road. But 'part' of the journey has been like this....

1. Trying to pick tops and bottom. Get burnt, lots of pain. Eventually stop that silly game away. Pain stops...

2. Increase skills, learn how to pick tops and bottoms that often work. However, too chicken shit to pull the trigger. Been hurt too many times. Watch all that pips I could have...
Hi Dazz,

That is every traders problem sometime in their career. Your thinking is 50 pips in the bank is a good thing so you close the trade.

There are a number of ways to keep you in the trade and one that I use is to have intermediate targets. I trade using the SR's and trendlines so I have H1, H4 and Daily SR's on my chart and the M15 on the lower timeframes. I also have a median line target which the PA will move from one side to the other and does so almost 100% of the time.

My thoughts are this median line is a bias line and once crossed the bias is changed. Until the PA hits this median line my only thoughts are to eliminate risk and not of taking profit and closing the trade. As the PA moves and crosses each SR it acts like a set of stairs that eventually takes me to my main target. As the PA moves across the SR's I also move my stop so I protect my profits.

Another good way to eliminate risk is to scale out and by doing this in combination with your stop at some point you are trading with zero risk.

I hope this helps,

Johnny
  • #1,840
  • Dec 9, 2011 2:27am Dec 9, 2011 2:27am
Quoting dazzdude
It's a journey.
...
4. Next step (my current hurdle)... having the faith to believe in my analysis, the disciple to excute it, and the patience to see it through.
dazz
I've been through the same path. Solution to 4 is use smaller lots, so small that you dont even care much if you lose. Profits will be less too but you need to have a long term view, slow and steady. Watching a graph of your steadily increasing balance helps too

PS: apologies to some people who were anoyed by my fundamentals related posts, I will refrain from posting my analysis in the future.

All the best
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