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AUD/USD

  • #37,201
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:20pm Dec 7, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting happytrader
i shorted at the retracement and it seems that i can no longer understand what i am doing! is this a rebounce or retracement. damn it!

why am i so unlucky!
i swear i'm only going to hate aud/usd from now on. every move is exaggerated. euro is so much better.
  • #37,202
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:22pm Dec 7, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting Sixpack73
i reversed again at 1.0261 - normally i don't flip this much but this one's acting a bit odd tonight, at least compared to what i'm used to. should go down but that 1.025 line has got some support

edit...i wouldn't expect much more of a down move till london but even then the hopium for friday's euro news will keep the bulls lingering i bet
its hard to call. i covered at pretty much the worst point after the emp data. typical bad move by me under pressure.

i didnt look until after i covered but there is a nice little bearish butterfly on the 1M after the initial retrace, which is often a self-fulfilling short at point D
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,203
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:23pm Dec 7, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting happytrader
i swear i'm only going to hate aud/usd from now on. every move is exaggerated. euro is so much better.
You need to take a step back.

The AU pair moves a lot within a single day compared to other pairs, so the potential earnings is higher (but the potential losses is also higher too).

In a ranging market, for me AU is the best pair to trade as you can identify the highs and the lows and trade (up to 100 pips easily on a daily basis).

Other pairs doesn't move as much, so not that much fun. But I myself do take a step back if I don't see a good entry to go in, and go to my secondary pair which is USDCHF.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,204
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:26pm Dec 7, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting happytrader
i shorted at the retracement and it seems that i can no longer understand what i am doing! is this a rebounce or retracement. damn it!

why am i so unlucky!
care to post ALL your trades as they happen?
i wanna do the opposite! LOL
  • #37,205
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:36pm Dec 7, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
You need to take a step back.

The AU pair moves a lot within a single day compared to other pairs, so the potential earnings is higher (but the potential losses is also higher too).

In a ranging market, for me AU is the best pair to trade as you can identify the highs and the lows and trade (up to 100 pips easily on a daily basis).

Other pairs doesn't move as much, so not that much fun. But I myself do take a step back if I don't see a good entry to go in, and go to my secondary pair which is USDCHF.
thanks for the advice. it's really useful.
  • #37,206
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:57pm Dec 7, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting ragnakore
care to post ALL your trades as they happen?
i wanna do the opposite! LOL
How would that work?

I am following your opposite, which would now be Happy's opposite.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,207
  • Dec 7, 2011 9:03pm Dec 7, 2011 9:03pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
How would that work?

I am following your opposite, which would now be Happy's opposite.
  • #37,208
  • Dec 7, 2011 9:05pm Dec 7, 2011 9:05pm
Pair seems to be conslidating between 1.0265-1.0245, I have placed a sell at 1.0265 with stop at 1.0280 also a sell at 1.0240 with stop at 1.0265... I place my fib on previous days close and its ranging between 61.8 and 38.2 ret. levels break above to below signals trade, also note the bol. bands is sitting at 1.0241. This will also signal band breakout...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,209
  • Dec 7, 2011 9:23pm Dec 7, 2011 9:23pm
just on the basics, looks like the
15M has started an intermediate downtrend, 10 closing under the 200EMAs
1H starting an intermediate downtrend, 10 closing under the 30EMA
1H bottom channel breakout, MACD looking down.

Still premature, but Im still holding the thought we'll find the bottom of the range at 1.015 before the european open.

Edit: Chart is 1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-12-08 at 12.51.56 PM.png Size: 44 KB
  • #37,210
  • Dec 7, 2011 9:59pm Dec 7, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
AU will only play in the range of 1.0150 to 1.0330 until 9 December.... HOPIUM is keeping it up.

I will buy AU around 1.0200 to 1.0250 targeting 1.0280 - 1.0300 today.

Too risky to short, IMHO.
HOPIUM is really a strong force to recon with.
  • #37,211
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:01pm Dec 7, 2011 10:01pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
How would that work?

I am following your opposite, which would now be Happy's opposite.
Opposite of Opposite should be a HEDGE.

ie, BUY and SELL at same time. LOL!
  • #37,212
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:28pm Dec 7, 2011 10:28pm
Too bad ..it's not even goin' below 1.0200..still can get cheap price for long..maybe after London open (it might even shoot up pass 1.035 )..
  • #37,213
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:36pm Dec 7, 2011 10:36pm
Quoting ragnakore
Opposite of Opposite should be a HEDGE.

ie, BUY and SELL at same time. LOL!
i did this when i was super noob many months ago. and... i didn't see the point in doing that... and.. i've a habit of cutting profit and letting losses run.

so in the end, it always results in massive loss.
  • #37,214
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:48pm Dec 7, 2011 10:48pm
I'm getting ready to throw in the towel which means the Aussie will probably tank shortly, but I've been shorting this pair for a few days now and I think its finally got me beat, its just been complete bearish news all week and its just continues to float higher.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #37,215
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:52pm Dec 7, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting Pipsforall
I'm getting ready to throw in the towel which means the Aussie will probably tank shortly, but I've been shorting this pair for a few days now and I think its finally got me beat, its just been complete bearish news all week and its just continues to float higher.
aud is killing me... they say the trend is ur friend. and i every time i try to follow it, it reverses... wth...

look at aud now, it's bad news and yet, the retracement is looking more like a reversal by the seconds
  • #37,216
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:56pm Dec 7, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting happytrader
aud is killing me... they say the trend is ur friend. and i every time i try to follow it, it reverses... wth...

look at aud now, it's bad news and yet, the retracement is looking more like a reversal by the seconds
Technically and fundamentally the its due for a move down, but the European Hopium and the US Santa Claus rally is keeping it moving higher. The Flag pattern in my opinion has been negated because its now longer than the pole, but 1.230 has just become rock solid support and the bears lack the conviction to blow threw it from what I see because of the fear the Merkel is going to fart, it will make headlines and the US gamblers will shoot the DOW up 1000 points.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #37,217
  • Dec 7, 2011 11:01pm Dec 7, 2011 11:01pm
Quoting happytrader
i did this when i was super noob many months ago. and... i didn't see the point in doing that... and.. i've a habit of cutting profit and letting losses run.

so in the end, it always results in massive loss.
yeh death but a thousand cuts, so hard to stomach, make 3-4 wins and wipe it out with extra on one loss!

traders mentality killer!

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #37,218
  • Dec 7, 2011 11:05pm Dec 7, 2011 11:05pm
Quoting scfx
yeh death but a thousand cuts, so hard to stomach, make 3-4 wins and wipe it out with extra on one loss!

traders mentality killer!

scfx
how do you guys overcome the tendency to cut profit?

my example is like this : 1st trade of the day - 15 pips loss
2nd trade - tp is 100 pips but when it hit 15, i will close the position... for fear that the price will reverse and i'll end up with -15 pips for the day....
  • #37,219
  • Dec 7, 2011 11:12pm Dec 7, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting happytrader
how do you guys overcome the tendency to cut profit?

my example is like this : 1st trade of the day - 15 pips loss
2nd trade - tp is 100 pips but when it hit 15, i will close the position... for fear that the price will reverse and i'll end up with -15 pips for the day....
to be honest with you, i still struggle with that at times. it's at it's hardest when i scalp. you really have to be hard with yourself and sit it out.

i wish i had a better answer for u but it's one of the harder parts of trading. one thing that helps is a smaller trade size. i find it's easier to deal with on daily time frame trading you tend to look at the market less.

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #37,220
  • Dec 7, 2011 11:14pm Dec 7, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting happytrader
how do you guys overcome the tendency to cut profit?

my example is like this : 1st trade of the day - 15 pips loss
2nd trade - tp is 100 pips but when it hit 15, i will close the position... for fear that the price will reverse and i'll end up with -15 pips for the day....
For me just use a very conservative MM..only 0.5 - 1% risk/trade (using more than 3% usually cloud my judgment & fear easily creep in) ..so don't care if it hit SL ..If my strategy is good then my account will grow in the end..just my 2 cents
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