AUD/USD

1.0275 is strong minor resistance

nice short setup for Aud/Usd, also check the monthly candle on this pair as it was turn red to white meaning the whole month is a sell on this...

yup agree on that. german finance minister has punctured the rally a bit

Check M5 chart since last Thursday till today: Looking like 1.0250s turning point area.

If we keep getting Lower Highs till 9AMEST, I predict high probability it will drop to 1.0220s area.

.. oh crap. seems like it wanna happen just as I write!

FXCM's SSI showing more getting into the short AUDUSD bandwagon.
Be careful. I would not short with so many folks still heading there.

i had closed my EUR/AUD long at 1.30998 yesterday around 1.3110 but re-enter it at 1.30748, s/l still at 1.2900, still not break 4H and 8H trendline.. let's see how it will go after 32 hours (based on the 8H chart, MACD had a strong divergent indication), but if it failed then it will slowly move down to test 2930, the yearly support..
Wait to see if it will break the downward trendline!

Just sharing my daily charts, hope it's readable despite all the spaghetti...



Despite the bullish flag/ascending triangle pattern, I think the upside to be quite dangerous (unless tonight fundamentals support another rally), and even so, SMA200 and descending channel UL would be, IMO, strong obstacles in the way.



A break of the channel and subsequent move to the highs seems quite improbable (interest rates cut, euro weakness, Christmas holidays risk off?). I would expect a surprise and quick descent to break the lows. The flag pattern is too "perfect" to be true.

Will maybe write later on with more details, need some sleep now, ASAP.

Aussie is back up!

It's time to brainstorm ideas: Is this just a simple retrace up before an inevitable move down? Even if is/isn't......where will it stop, pause and drop back? Where will it continue?

1.03-30 looks like a strong level, if we clear it, will we see 1.045? There are the questions we must answer to play the shorter term for aussie

What about all those technical patterns? A Reverse H&S on the DAILY (yes targeting 1.3 or so) An ascending wedge/triangle on the hourly....with indication to upside....

short @ 1.02909 s/l 1.0345 Tgt 1.0175

AUD/USD will be driven up to the 1.04-1.05 by year's end, this is a great time to reposition your bets.

I'm bullish CHF. I am bullish AUD/USD

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...he-us-anymore/

Could be fundamentally bad for Aussie. Also on another note almsot every AUD cross is looking like its ready for a corrective move down i.e. AUDUDS looking for parity.

THis is actually the perfect time to go Long since retailers are jumping in short, its now net short for the first time in a long time, may see a big jump lasting few hrs.

Hmm I see a lower high just now.
I think the pair will keep ranging until tonight employment/unemployment data.



Indeed the technical patterns are seemingly quite bullish (especially the daily flag/ascending triangle... though... a rising WEDGE like the hourly's is a BEARISH pattern...)

1.045-1.05 (even almost 1.06) is about at the upper descending trend line and a 138.2 extension on the daily swing high, so maybe we could reach it if the Aussie breaks up, price has been ranging exactly at the very center area of a symmetrical triangle and will break either way... however news like this one, (although that level would also be the 161.8 extension on that same swing) and the almost perfect daily flag inside a bearish channel (plus a sneaky pinocchio bar in the consolidation) make me very wary of a potential fake breakup or bull trap (or pump n'dump) so heavy sellers can get a better price and eat off all those yummy longs. Like if it was being "advertised"...



On the other side, the fact that most traders are short-positioned would rather confirm an upside... and also, despite the rate cut Aussie's yield is probably still a good bargain... but the Euro-Dollar also looks very heavy and both are highly correlated lately.

Until this morning, I was feeling rather confident that we could reach around 1.06xx, in fact I had several long positions in the negative (1.0380, 1.0443 and a small remnant at 1.0606) which I had been managing along with shorting the euro as pseudo-hedge and building equity scalping both pairs while I waited for another rally to the heights (this is an usual part of my trading as I only - or preferently - trade the AUDUSD long and can stand much higher drawdowns). However, at a certain point I started feeling really uncomfortable because of all the above reasons, and decided that it was better to take a 6% loss and close all (euros and aussies) than risk a potential debacle to 0.9200ish later on.

Reverse head and shoulders to 1.3? Yes indeed, I have also considered that possibility... but given the whole market picture it seems to me quite a bit overpriced at that level... and who knows, might be another "advertising" trick to trap the "toritos" like me...

The Christmas holidays, the rate cuts, and also the cyclic occurences (August 2008 is about three years and a half from this month) made me take the decision to bail out. I'd rather start all over when the picture is clearer. Better to be wrong and lose 6% than wrong and risk the whole account! (this also because I don't think that if the Aussie falls to 0.92xx the Euro will drop as far... thus risking a de-correlation of the "hedge".)

Anyway, giving back some to the market is a must, IMO. I take it as a due tithe

I think the unemployment number will be at expected or lower. Those larger GDP numbers are derived from mining and the prices of Gold/other mineral production sold at market rates, so when the prices go up, employment doesn't necessarily go up as well. I lean bearish on this data...

i wouldnt place any emphasis on any data. long term china doesnt look crash hot to me. its a sham of an economy - china, and has a lot of negative effects not just economic. major players reluctant to have correction around xmas time, so new year there will be another correction.

i doubt it will go to 1.04 or 1.05 if it does its clear short

rate cuts indicate aus. economy can collapse with a major incident in 2012.

AUD/USD @1.0295

Aussie Unemployment rate today -

Now I would be worried if I was an economist. You job is starting to be come obsolete.

Reason: Despite what the number maybe 5%,10%,20% it doesnt matter.. just buy..
It seems like the AUD/USD doesnt come with a sell button anymore.

Todays range - BID no OFFER..

Its 11th Hour coming for a breakout.

1.0330 is key. Break and its 1.0400

Obviously, one can try selling around current levels 1.0290s for a 50 pips drop like its been for the last 3 days... tempting isnt it?

Let us see if we'd see 1.0400 today.

HOPIUM is in the air, and RUMOR is added in the mix as well really trying hard to pump RISK currencies. going against these strong stimulus isnt healthy to your account.

Here we go...
Sold @ 1.0285, sl 1.0314, tp 1.0174

Who is with me?

I think it will go down a bit today, but instead of shorting AU pair, I'm buying USDCHF pair instead...

Rocket,

If I go with you right now, it will go up instead!

LOL!

We'd need a bad Employment data in 20 mins to drop this currency.

why 1.0314 SL? Recent Highs?