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The Really Useless Thread

  • #38,781
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:09am Dec 7, 2011 2:09am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Sisse,

A couple of questions.

1. What is the "external adjustment" the article refers to?
2. How is the EFSF functionally different from Eurobonds? I mean, the EFSF issue bonds sold to the public which are backed by the joint promise of a variety of Euro governments. Further, these bonds are used to purchase debt of European governments.
Well in general, external adjustments refers to the balance of payment (especially though the current account). In broad terms is the impact of real exchange rates over gross demand (output, etc), and investment and capital flows in the Accounts deficits/Surplus of a country (the EZ in general in this case) with the "rest".

The main difference between Eurobonds and the EFSF is the scope and extend of guarantee of a "national" bond. The former offers, "unlimited" guarantee while the EFSF is only limited to the availability and "responsibility of the cash pledge....that why all the noise about the EFSF leverage and how to avoid this shortcoming using the IMF...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #38,782
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:11am Dec 7, 2011 2:11am
Testing friday swing high close/yesterday high - if we stay above 468 is next to reach
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  • #38,783
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:14am Dec 7, 2011 2:14am
Quoting Wulfgar
major numbers to the downside for todays session are 3400 and 3328 in my book

...
if London gives up 3430, we could see a break lower I suspect..below there a couple I note are...3380, yest/mid, and 3375, yesterdays swing low close...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #38,784
  • Edited 2:24am Dec 7, 2011 2:14am | Edited 2:24am
No action so far with breaks 3441 though , waiting breaks 3425 to mark the leg up ended & correction down towards 3400 -3362 before any up to develop in intention .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #38,785
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:15am Dec 7, 2011 2:15am
Quoting sisse
Well in general, external adjustments refers to the balance of payment (especially though the current account). In broad terms is the impact of real exchange rates over gross demand (output, etc), and investment and capital flows in the Accounts deficits/Surplus of a country (the EZ in general in this case) with the "rest".

The main difference between Eurobonds and the EFSF is the scope and extend of guarantee of a "national" bond. The latter offers, "unlimited" guarantee while the EFSF is only limited to the availability and "responsibility...
the question is does the IMF have the gumption or even the means to fund the EFSF.... cuz although there have been many(at last count 8) rumors the ECB is going to fund the EFSF the actual relaity is they wont...

and since germany is staunchly agaisnt the use of eurobonds and the EFSF is broke and no one wants to invest in it.... how can there really be any hope for a workable solution?

its amzing we live in a time where the word "rescue fund" is bullish
  • #38,786
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:16am Dec 7, 2011 2:16am
Quoting chazzle
Testing friday swing high close/yesterday high - if we stay above 468 is next to reach
morning bro, say whats the close of the swing low on there? 3400ish?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #38,787
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:17am Dec 7, 2011 2:17am
guess the swiss cutting their 7 day dollar repo rate is CHF bullish??
  • #38,788
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:22am Dec 7, 2011 2:22am
Quoting PayTheLimit
morning bro, say whats the close of the swing low on there? 3400ish?
morning squire - yesterday H4? - yes 134 on the nose
  • #38,789
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:24am Dec 7, 2011 2:24am
Quoting sisse
Well in general, external adjustments refers to the balance of payment (especially though the current account). In broad terms is the impact of real exchange rates over gross demand (output, etc), and investment and capital flows in the Accounts deficits/Surplus of a country (the EZ in general in this case) with the "rest".

The main difference between Eurobonds and the EFSF is the scope and extend of guarantee of a "national" bond. The former offers, "unlimited" guarantee while the EFSF is only limited to the availability and "responsibility...
Thanks Sisse,

So really the EFSF is a limitted form of Eurobonds. I think the fine print of the EFSF allows them to ramp up amounts required from the government while also making the EFSF a supranational body with broad legal immunity.

As for external adjustments... Is it fair to reframe it as "competitive in global labor markets"?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #38,790
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:25am Dec 7, 2011 2:25am
Quoting chazzle
morning squire - yesterday H4? - yes 134 on the nose
thanks bro..btw am watching GBP/AUD here at 5180, just by accident mostly, its the daily swing mid from Oct 27th, a biggie I suspect, looks like there is a play for either 5285, yest/mid, or 5055, a daily mid..if ya have any interest...LO 1st hour should give a clue..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #38,791
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:26am Dec 7, 2011 2:26am
Quoting Wulfgar

its amzing we live in a time where the word "rescue fund" is bullish
Lol. Just imagine how you would feel floating in an Ocean surrounded by sharks when you heard the world "rescue" being shouted.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #38,792
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:30am Dec 7, 2011 2:30am
Quoting Wulfgar
guess the swiss cutting their 7 day dollar repo rate is CHF bullish??
when I look at a chart - I just see CHF weakening more and more - against the dollar at least
  • #38,793
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:30am Dec 7, 2011 2:30am
Quoting Wulfgar
the question is does the IMF have the gumption or even the means to fund the EFSF.... cuz although there have been many(at last count 8) rumors the ECB is going to fund the EFSF the actual relaity is they wont...

and since germany is staunchly agaisnt the use of eurobonds and the EFSF is broke and no one wants to invest in it.... how can there really be any hope for a workable solution?

its amzing we live in a time where the word "rescue fund" is bullish
No it doesn't but it has a the institutional support, a global acceptance (it will include by default support from the rest of the world UK, US, etc) but more importantly provide the only scape goat technicality and framework for EU/EZ countries to pour money to bailout europe without the political constrains of it which probably is even more important than the money itself for the big countries involved.

The IMF was made for that, although they are trying to "use" it to avoid the complications (political) of openly putting even more good money over bad money without dealing with the real problem. It will also "hide" the awful mismanagement of the EZ debt problem and incompetency to deal with this issue the last 2 years...so at the end is a "win win" situation for the EZ politicians and a "so so" solution for the real problems.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #38,794
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:32am Dec 7, 2011 2:32am
eyes on eu 468 uchf 220
  • #38,795
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:32am Dec 7, 2011 2:32am
Quoting sisse
No it doesn't but it has a the institutional support, a global acceptance (it will include by default support from the rest of the world UK, US, etc) but more importantly provide the only scape goat technicality and framework for EU/EZ countries to pour money to bailout europe without the political constrains of it which probably is even more important than the money itself for the big countries involved.

The IMF was made for that, although they are trying to "use" it to avoid the complications (political) of openly putting even more good money...
Why do you need the IMF when the CBs have demonstrated their willingness to cross the line and work as lenders of last resort to foreign institutions?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #38,796
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:33am Dec 7, 2011 2:33am
Quoting chazzle
when I look at a chart - I just see CHF weakening more and more - against the dollar at least
take a look at EUR/CHF, draw the swing high mid from Oct 19, mine shows 1.2411, has capped it on daily closes for a month almost...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #38,797
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:34am Dec 7, 2011 2:34am
Quoting KiwiTrada
I watching too, waiting trigger for entry
Was fair call, only wicks lately above entry, rr is acceptable, maybe need more wriggle room, nice pips above or below
ah well, for me it was a resistance play, it just choose'd the wrong direction the price to pay while countering
It's a strange thing atm, it seems like I fear butchers with sharp knives around every corner, maybe best to call it a year...
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #38,798
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:38am Dec 7, 2011 2:38am
Quoting PayTheLimit
thanks bro..btw am watching GBP/AUD here at 5180, just by accident mostly, its the daily swing mid from Oct 27th, a biggie I suspect
cheers bro - if it bounces there - I'll start to pay more attention to mids rather than just closes

Closewise - July PA says 135 for a bounce - are you trading it?
  • #38,799
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:40am Dec 7, 2011 2:40am
Quoting PayTheLimit
take a look at EUR/CHF, draw the swing high mid from Oct 19, mine shows 1.2411, has capped it on daily closes for a month almost...

its a huge breakout spot for that pair... for sure...

Im not trading EUR/CHF although it pays some swap... the UCHF is a better longer term pair to build longs given the SNB keeps intervening, US data keeps improving, and the fed doesnt launch more blatant bond purchase programs
  • #38,800
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:41am Dec 7, 2011 2:41am
Quoting chazzle
uchf 220
looks heavy against 9250/62, below I note 9197, above 9318, from way back, March 9th...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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