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Can be automated trading be profitable?

  • #21
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:27am Nov 15, 2011 12:27am
Quoting Du Jin Shan
Hi custos,
May I know, What is your opinion about this thread title " Can be automated trading be profitable?"

Best regards
Jin Shan
yes it can, if the strategy is tested thoroughly and works across many parameters. But from my experience this only applies to non-intraday strategies.
  • #22
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:39am Nov 15, 2011 12:39am
Quoting Custos
yes it can, if the strategy is tested thoroughly and works across many parameters. But from my experience this only applies to non-intraday strategies.
Thanks for your reply Custos.
I have a silly thought about this . why pro trader like George soros or Warren buffet do not make an EA to trade for them.
they have a profitable statregy and its easy to put their strategy on EA. then they let the EA to trade for them. and enjoy life.

Whats your opinion about this.

Best regards,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #23
  • Nov 15, 2011 12:47am Nov 15, 2011 12:47am
Quoting Du Jin Shan
Thanks for your reply Custos.
I have a silly thought about this . why pro trader do not make an EA to trade for them.
they have a profitable statregy and its easy to put their strategy on EA. then they let the EA to trade for them. and enjoy life.

Whats your opinion about this.

Best regards,
Jin Shan
yeah, that's actually what I did. But you have to realize that for many traders trading is part of the "enjoying life" theme. It is just such a fun game to guess which direction the markets will go and how participants will react to new world events, I truly can understand why even many hedge fund managers (like george soros, paul tudor jones,...) never stop trading based on reasoning rather than employing some EA's.
So yeah, I am right now half automated and half enjoying the game.

well, and anyways warren buffett's and george soros' strategy is impossible to code. They are purely based on fundamentals.
  • #24
  • Nov 15, 2011 1:03am Nov 15, 2011 1:03am
Quoting Custos
yeah, that's actually what I did. But you have to realize that for many traders trading is part of the "enjoying life" theme. It is just such a fun game to guess which direction the markets will go and how participants will react to new world events, I truly can understand why even many hedge fund managers (like george soros, paul tudor jones,...) never stop trading based on reasoning rather than employing some EA's.
So yeah, I am right now half automated and half enjoying the game.
yeah, agree
IT's me. trading should be an enjoyable game. keep in a good mood (good psychology), stress free while trading can lead to a good decision. I'm always keep in this.:nerd:
If trading bring stress then dont get in this business, try other convensional business.

Quoting Custos
well, and anyways warren buffett's and george soros' strategy is impossible to code. They are purely based on fundamentals.
yaiks,
what a fool of me

Best regards,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #25
  • Dec 1, 2011 11:50pm Dec 1, 2011 11:50pm
I think you guys are leaving out a very tiny detail......and thus leaves your reasoning to be flawed in a large way. For the simple fact that you believe a strategy will stop working eventually means that you will at some point also change the way you trade....because of this, previous strategies that worked, then stopped will then work again...

the biggest variable in trading that you all seem to forget is market psychology, because of this simple fact of fear and greed, the market will continue to produce. Therefore, if you work with the markets, you will ALWAYS produce, whether its via an EA OR Manual Trading...

Hence the very reason that what some of the great traders of yesterday used, still hold as some of the golden rules in today's world of trading. All it takes is merely understanding the markets.

You can give two traders a winning strategy, but based on their experience and market psychology, both will trade it different even though the strategy produces profit....greed will always force one to continue to try to improve or tweak the system while the other who encounters a few losses will invalidate the system and try to do the same the other way thus creating the living entity of footprint we trade today.........
In Charts We Trust!
  • #26
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:42pm Dec 2, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting Kvn
Hello, I'm new to FF and would like to start rookie discussion.

Not to many people on FF use an automated trading system(EA). Are they not profitable or it's almost impossible to find working one?

Kevin
Hi Keven

The answer to your question is yes. In fact, a professional EA implementation of a proven strategy (based upon historical back-test) will almost certaintly win.

The reason this won't work for most people is that most people cannot program at a professional level. The ability to program, understand trading, have high risk tolerance and have a large amount of free capital is a very rare combination. But if you have all four trading can be the key to the kingdom.

I have a favourite quotation:

It is impossible to demonstrate empirically that a cause produces an effect. Just because the sun has risen every day since the beginning of the Earth does not mean that it will rise again tomorrow. However; it is impossible to go about one's life without assuming such connections, and the best that we can do is to maintain an open mind and never presume that we know any laws of causality for certain.
David Hume (1711-1776),
Scottish philosopher, economist, and historian.
From “An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding”.
So as David Hume says, if a strategy back-tests to an annual profit every year for the last ten years (as mine do) it is impossible to say that it will make a profit this year... but I am happy to bet that the sun will rise tomorrow.

Medran
  • #27
  • Dec 2, 2011 8:09pm Dec 2, 2011 8:09pm
NO

Until all of the above people actually find there dream EA, which trust me they haven't cause they wouldn't be posting on here or anyone else then that is the only answer.

A computer program, can't think it can't adapt it can't trade.

Banks don't give there traders Millions of $$$'s in bonus's for no reason what so ever , Banks don't use EA's, they use simple Buy / Sell programs which just buy many lots based on the traders rules.

The EA's which win the competitions do so by random chance, 99% lose a few win, run the test again and you'll get a different 1%.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #28
  • Dec 2, 2011 9:42pm Dec 2, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting Turveyd
NO

Until all of the above people actually find there dream EA, which trust me they haven't cause they wouldn't be posting on here or anyone else then that is the only answer.

A computer program, can't think it can't adapt it can't trade.

Banks don't give there traders Millions of $$$'s in bonus's for no reason what so ever , Banks don't use EA's, they use simple Buy / Sell programs which just buy many lots based on the traders rules.

The EA's which win the competitions do so by random chance, 99% lose a few win, run the test...

That's funny!

What proof do you want? Do you want people to post their results? Do you want a contest. EA v Human?

I'll put an ea up against you any day Seriously! Lets end it once and for all )
  • #29
  • Dec 3, 2011 12:29am Dec 3, 2011 12:29am
I double you...
you are 100% right, besides, what about level and psychology .. an EA will never replace a human.

Quoting Du Jin Shan
"can be automated trading be profitable?"

I think no, why?

  1. Because EA have no psychology

  1. it never care about your account equity, whether your equity is in danger

  1. it will always trade when there is a signal, this will lead to overtrading

  1. EA cant read the market psychology level


If it is true, there is a profitable EA, no one gonna share it for free, or sell it for for hundreds of bucks.

Best Regards,
Jin Shan

  • #30
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:31am Dec 6, 2011 4:31am
Quoting first_major
.. an EA will never replace a human.
Totally agree with you. At the moment it will definitely not.
But we don't know what future can bring us...

Kevin
  • #31
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:36am Dec 6, 2011 5:36am
Quoting Kvn
Totally agree with you. At the moment it will definitely not.
But we don't know what future can bring us...

Kevin

I'm in that camp to, much like me, when tech changes in the future and they have real AI then that will change my opinion.

They've just replicated 1 neuron with 200 micro chips, they just have to get that in network with several trillion other neurons and they've cracked it, so not in our life times or like the kids of our kids kids.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #32
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:40pm Dec 6, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting first_major
I double you...
you are 100% right, besides, what about level and psychology .. an EA will never replace a human.
a couple of years ago, people thought a program could never beat the world master in chess.
How did that pan out again?
  • #33
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:43pm Dec 6, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting Custos
a couple of years ago, people thought a program could never beat the world master in chess.
How did that pan out again?
Chess is a different story, it's got fixed rules and basically the computer just brute forced him, considering every move up 10moves ahead to find the best play, hard for any human to beat that.

They can't make a strategy, but they can adapt great to each turn and make the optimal move.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #34
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:48pm Dec 6, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting Turveyd
Chess is a different story, it's got fixed rules and basically the computer just brute forced him, considering every move up 10moves ahead to find the best play, hard for any human to beat that.

They can't make a strategy, but they can adapt great to each turn and make the optimal move.
well, everything has fixed rules. Some are more complicated than others. Market behavior also follows rules. Only cause you can't see rules in the markets, doesn't mean a computer in a couple of years can't find relevant really complex rules that outperform the best traders.
After all, successful traders also follow rules, some are just hard to articulate.

It is ridiculous to believe that computers won't advance to a point where they outperform human brains.
  • #35
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:13pm Dec 6, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting Custos
well, everything has fixed rules. Some are more complicated than others. Market behavior also follows rules. Only cause you can't see rules in the markets, doesn't mean a computer in a couple of years can't find relevant really complex rules that outperform the best traders.
After all, successful traders also follow rules, some are just hard to articulate.

It is ridiculous to believe that computers won't advance to a point where they outperform human brains.

Doesn't mean they cam do either
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #36
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:36am Dec 7, 2011 12:36am
Quoting Custos
well, everything has fixed rules. Some are more complicated than others. Market behavior also follows rules. Only cause you can't see rules in the markets, doesn't mean a computer in a couple of years can't find relevant really complex rules that outperform the best traders.
After all, successful traders also follow rules, some are just hard to articulate.

It is ridiculous to believe that computers won't advance to a point where they outperform human brains.
yes, i know that chess computer, chess master either cannt beat it.

and how about the computer that can beat the market. I think it will never happen, because computer have no money. LOLs it can't move the market

as we know there is someone that moves the market we know it as big player(smart money). yes, they have a rule in moving this huge market. knowing their rule can't guarantee computer will success. because there is another factors the big players considerate on, for example fundamentals factor or market psychology level.

One thing and the most important thing that computer dont have is psychology. computer can't make a consideration

And BTW i bet someday there will be a human that can beat the chess computer. human full of unlimited potential
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #37
  • Dec 7, 2011 3:45am Dec 7, 2011 3:45am
Hi,
I am also new to Forex and I thought that until I get the idea of how to trade manually, I may try automated trading.
I found some information about mirror trading on the web and I wanted to ask if you know anything about it. I opened a Mirror Trader account with FXCM and I see they have many strategies there. (I know I'm not an expert, but some strategies seems pretty good)
My question is: did anyone tried the "Mirror Trader"?
Any tips about how to recognize good strategies (beside looking at the graphs)?

Thanks!
  • #38
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:15pm Dec 7, 2011 2:15pm
EA's being profitable - that has to be the joke of the millenium. Yea, coin me a new moniker as a EA naysayer..
Here's why there're no profitable EA's and there will be none.
Human nature: Let's face it, as a species, we are not very charitable to our friends, colleagues and even strangers on this forum. As such, we are churlish by nature and would not want to share any "golden goose" with any one.
Imagine a EA that works perfectly all the time..do you know what the price would be on that product? It would be literally priceless.

The second factor, is this...imagine if every trader had access to the same EA copy, the one that works all the time..now, imagine a market where every move is predicted and can u imagine how this scenario would play out..

And of course, the third one happens to be the trillion dollar query "Is an EA, one that adapts in real time possible" and the answer..no. Nope and even if someone comes along and develops one, he is not going to he handing it out to anyone.

And for the proEA-bytes out there, if you're really sure that EA is the best way to go and you have access to one that really works, let's trim up that bet..fork over $100 as seed money, will trade you against the EA in question on a 2:1 and should the EA succeed..well, we just move on.

What about the $200 I am supposed to hand over should the EA turn out to be for real [notice that I am not holding my breath], well, you don't really need the money, do ya? You got an EA that's working, so you have all the money in the world and let's just call it a case of that strange EA thread and move on.

Advisement: Do note, parts of the above reply are made in jest and for the record, my views on EA are clearly stated above. thank you and have a nice day!
  • #39
  • Dec 8, 2011 6:08am Dec 8, 2011 6:08am
Quoting Irish-cream
Hi,
I am also new to Forex and I thought that until I get the idea of how to trade manually, I may try automated trading.
I found some information about mirror trading on the web and I wanted to ask if you know anything about it. I opened a Mirror Trader account with FXCM and I see they have many strategies there. (I know I'm not an expert, but some strategies seems pretty good)
My question is: did anyone tried the "Mirror Trader"?
Any tips about how to recognize good strategies (beside looking at the graphs)?

Thanks!
Hi Irish cream,
I am using the Mirror Trader platform as well , i think its a great tool.
i found out that when i am clicking on the name of the strategy a window is openning and i am able to see more statistics about the strtategies , and more visual data.
if you can find more details about how to find the best stratehy please answer and if anyone else know anything more please help.
  • #40
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:57pm Dec 8, 2011 1:57pm
Hi Iris-cream,

If you have some small idea with trading i suggest you to use their "semi" option.
look at the graph, decide if you go long or short and mirror a trade of a starategy with good ratio between avg. Take profit and avr. Stop Loss.
it has been working for me for the last few month.

if you want me to explain more let me know...

good luck!


Quoting Irish-cream
Hi,
I am also new to Forex and I thought that until I get the idea of how to trade manually, I may try automated trading.
I found some information about mirror trading on the web and I wanted to ask if you know anything about it. I opened a Mirror Trader account with FXCM and I see they have many strategies there. (I know I'm not an expert, but some strategies seems pretty good)
My question is: did anyone tried the "Mirror Trader"?
Any tips about how to recognize good strategies (beside looking at the graphs)?

Thanks!
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