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AUD/USD

  • #37,101
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:42pm Dec 6, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting lolygagv2
SO i shorted aussie on the news yesterday made 80 pips. but at the moment, I've given half of my realized gains back in an unrealized loss -40 pips........so I'm kinda wondering if I should just salvage it and bail now, or keep going.......It could get a lot higher.
Only you can make that decision, I'm keeping my shorts because I believe ultimately the Aussie is going much lower, however, in the near term it could certainly rip much higher, but I'm not over-leveraged, so unless the Aussie goes 2 to 1 verse the dollar my account is okay. If we do go to 1.05 to 1.07, I'll be adding to my shorts there.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #37,102
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:47pm Dec 6, 2011 8:47pm
im not sure about this; but it does show that we have a lot of happy trigger fingers ready for a rally ;-)

http://www.efxnews.com/story/7789/ch...nd-10754-rally
  • #37,103
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:49pm Dec 6, 2011 8:49pm
Short off yesterday's resistance, bulls have dissapeared we could be in for a good short here down to 1.01 or so before we rally hard into the festive season. No chart as on phone. Positive rate cut report in China potential but think investors will see thru that. China still very heavily reliant on global economic health and it's extemely sick right now.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #37,104
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:55pm Dec 6, 2011 8:55pm
if it goes to over 1.04 its a massive short as its interest rate differential only 4%
  • #37,105
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:08pm Dec 6, 2011 9:08pm
Im short from 1.032 & SL 1.034ish.
Short term trade only. I still see room for AUD to go up.
Enter Signature
  • #37,106
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:14pm Dec 6, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
im not sure about this; but it does show that we have a lot of happy trigger fingers ready for a rally ;-)

http://www.efxnews.com/story/7789/ch...nd-10754-rally
I also see a bounce from 1.015 up to around the .07 mark. Will be an interesting few weeks.
Enter Signature
  • #37,107
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:31pm Dec 6, 2011 9:31pm
currently not much downside as dow and aud usd correlated. also 4% interest rate differential with prospect of more QE from USA or Europe to come increases the attractiveness of AUDUSD. also prospect of more stimulus from china. and aud at 1.0250 already discounts

however will take NEWS to make it move up or down from here

its forming a nice base risky to short imo, need a good move to make a trade
  • #37,108
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:42pm Dec 6, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Short off yesterday's resistance, bulls have dissapeared we could be in for a good short here down to 1.01 or so before we rally hard into the festive season. No chart as on phone. Positive rate cut report in China potential but think investors will see thru that. China still very heavily reliant on global economic health and it's extemely sick right now.
china's metal industry is on hold.. a friend just came back from china and brought bad news they could not sell their ores. orders are on hold till next q2

how aud still hovering above parity is a mystery seeing no global demand..
  • #37,109
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:44pm Dec 6, 2011 9:44pm
I set up a Gann Box on the Aussie back in October and hadn't really looked at it in over a month. I thought you guys might find it interesting as to how closely and consistently PA has followed Gann's angles, especially if you add in Fib retracements as an overlay.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,110
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:48pm Dec 6, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting ragnakore
china's metal industry is on hold.. a friend just came back from china and brought bad news they could not sell their ores. orders are on hold till next q2

how aud still hovering above parity is a mystery seeing no global demand..
My only take is that the Fat Cats on Wall Street are completely ignoring the global fundamentals because they want their Santa Claus rally and that is bringing risk based currencies up with it. I think as soon as the New Year is rung in, fundamentals will matter again.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #37,111
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:51pm Dec 6, 2011 9:51pm
I feel before the recession short everyone is looking forward to... we need to get through the Euro Zone agreeing to PRINT.... the whole lets Print our way out of a problem and not restructure / write down our debt....
  • #37,112
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:52pm Dec 6, 2011 9:52pm
Quoting DonL
I set up a Gann Box on the Aussie back in October and hadn't really looked at it in over a month. I thought you guys might find it interesting as to how closely and consistently PA has followed Gann's angles, especially if you add in Fib retracements as an overlay.
Interesting, although I have no idea what it all means, and have idea how to even set that up on my chart. lol
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #37,113
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:56pm Dec 6, 2011 9:56pm
Quoting Pipsforall
My only take is that the Fat Cats on Wall Street are completely ignoring the global fundamentals because they want their Santa Claus rally and that is bringing risk based currencies up with it. I think as soon as the New Year is rung in, fundamentals will matter again.
thats right. xmas rally is self fulfilling. dow is up over 1100 points from the swing low. aud refuses to go down. and dont forget, gbpusd is 1.56 and eur 1.34, and not going down much either, and they have far lower interest rates than aud euraud 1.3150 or so, and aud has large positive rate differential there

quick scalps only.

kiwi is also holding firm, 2.5% interest rate and only 0.78 to the low yield dollar.

if short need a bit higher, longs under 1.02 have worked
  • #37,114
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:58pm Dec 6, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting ragnakore
china's metal industry is on hold.. a friend just came back from china and brought bad news they could not sell their ores. orders are on hold till next q2

how aud still hovering above parity is a mystery seeing no global demand..
Thanks for the confirmation, had heard similar news offshore.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #37,115
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:03pm Dec 6, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting ragnakore
china's metal industry is on hold.. a friend just came back from china and brought bad news they could not sell their ores. orders are on hold till next q2

how aud still hovering above parity is a mystery seeing no global demand..
I remember out own miners saying as much on the radio the other week.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #37,116
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:19pm Dec 6, 2011 10:19pm
If Gillard has to sell uranium to Pakistan n India, who are not signatories to the nuclear non-prolif treaty, you know that China ain't buying any metals/minerals and that the govt's desperate.

Penny Wong's comments that the banks are 'solid' is a little telling. This coming from someone who has little or nearly no financial background and who lacks public sector exposure(she's spent half her career in the government service).

She should really look back at the doldrums of '08/'09 and deduct China's contribution to AU's GDP to get a full picture.

80cents I say...80cents.
  • #37,117
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:22pm Dec 6, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting Khaleesi
If Gillard has to sell uranium to Pakistan n India, who are not signatories to the nuclear non-prolif treaty, you know that China ain't buying any metals/minerals and that the govt's desperate.

Penny Wong's comments that the banks are 'solid' is a little telling. This coming from someone who has little or nearly no financial background and who lacks public sector exposure(she's spent half her career in the government service).

She should really look back at the doldrums of '08/'09 and deduct China's contribution to AU's GDP to get a full picture....
possible only if china suffers a collapse
  • #37,118
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:41pm Dec 6, 2011 10:41pm
We need to remember, no one escapes a global recession, and that is as sure as eggs where we are heading soon or in near future.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #37,119
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:27am Dec 7, 2011 12:27am
I think AU will reach 1.04, anyone go to long now?
  • #37,120
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:45am Dec 7, 2011 1:45am
Quoting ChipsnPips
Im short from 1.032 & SL 1.034ish.
Short term trade only. I still see room for AUD to go up.
^^^^ What he said
Enter Signature
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