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AUD/USD

  • #37,081
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:47pm Dec 6, 2011 6:47pm
Like it or not , even after the rate cut..this pair still have huge swap rate ..it's just easier to buy on dip then try to short ( unless short around 1.07 - 1.1)..But anybody have any knowledge whether the pair is over valued now ?
  • #37,082
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:48pm Dec 6, 2011 6:48pm
Maybe this is the reason for the spike

http://www.smh.com.au/business/minin...207-1oi03.html
  • #37,083
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:00pm Dec 6, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting lasty
There are times when the market makes no sense which is purely complimentary to the governments of the world.

This is one of these times..
Very True!!!
  • #37,084
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:05pm Dec 6, 2011 7:05pm
i expected to see 1.04 before dropping; however, i didnt expect this spike on this little news! only wish i was long before the news event !

anyway, i am long now; will let it ride till we see 1.04 (or get stopped out! - normally when you get a second push north it breaks for second wave anyway??? - lowered my lot size down to 2; always can reload if it drops a little; or catch the next wave if it goes above 0340)
  • #37,085
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:20pm Dec 6, 2011 7:20pm
IMHO the market, on the 1h timeframe, is ranging between 1.0300-1.0150.
Why expect price to reach 1.0400?

I am playing this range until it breaks free from it.

I hope everyone is banking pips here, take care...
Expect the unexpected.
  • #37,086
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:20pm Dec 6, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i expected to see 1.04 before dropping; however, i didnt expect this spike on this little news! only wish i was long before the news event !

anyway, i am long now; will let it ride till we see 1.04 (or get stopped out! - normally when you get a second push north it breaks for second wave anyway??? - lowered my lot size down to 2; always can reload if it drops a little; or catch the next wave if it goes above 0340)
It's had 6 days to move higher.........it has failed, leading me to believe we will see further downside. Flat tops produce downward movement typically.
  • #37,087
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:27pm Dec 6, 2011 7:27pm
yes, we could see 1.0150 area again; and we still have 6 days... at this point it looks pretty weak. my stop is at 0257 - still long just in case it move up. most likely not.

Quoting lolygagv2
It's had 6 days to move higher.........it has failed, leading me to believe we will see further downside. Flat tops produce downward movement typically.
  • #37,088
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:47pm Dec 6, 2011 7:47pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
yes, we could see 1.0150 area again; and we still have 6 days... at this point it looks pretty weak. my stop is at 0257 - still long just in case it move up. most likely not.
I was hedged, I took off the hedge for now.
  • #37,089
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:51pm Dec 6, 2011 7:51pm
nice, i used to do that all the time.

for all of us that live in the USA; thanks to the new law dodd-frank; we are not allowed to:
1) hedge
2) trade gold on a margin
3) trade with a margin greater than 50:1
4) open a trading account in another country that does trade greater than 50:1 margin

so much for "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness"


Quoting lolygagv2
I was hedged, I took off the hedge for now.
  • #37,090
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:58pm Dec 6, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
nice, i used to do that all the time.

for all of us that live in the USA; thanks to the new law dodd-frank; we are not allowed to:
1) hedge
2) trade gold on a margin
3) trade with a margin greater than 50:1
4) open a trading account in another country that does trade greater than 50:1 margin

so much for "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness"
Don't tell but I'm doing all of that... To be fair, I've had the account longer than the US has been insane on petty laws against retail traders.
  • #37,091
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:01pm Dec 6, 2011 8:01pm
current swap rate aud usd mean nothing

if euro zone cant solve its crisis, itll continue to play out and auds long term rates will continue to decline. as its a service based economy itll get hammered in a recession. and also its mining sector will suffer with china. so i think it need to be priced at a discount to reflect risks
  • #37,092
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:03pm Dec 6, 2011 8:03pm
really; so did i; but my broker (interbank fx) changed that; told me that they had to comply with the law???

anyway enjoy your liberties :-)


Quoting lolygagv2
Don't tell but I'm doing all of that... To be fair, I've had the account longer than the US has been insane on petty laws against retail traders.
  • #37,093
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:06pm Dec 6, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting Halba
current swap rate aud usd mean nothing

if euro zone cant solve its crisis, itll continue to play out and auds long term rates will continue to decline. as its a service based economy itll get hammered in a recession. and also its mining sector will suffer with china. so i think it need to be priced at a discount to reflect risks
Right, but timing is everything, I think we're going into a Global recession next year, but this is the holiday time of year so damn the fundamentals, the US market wants to rally so the fat cats on Wall Street can get their bonuses. With Euro conference in 6 days, where they will once again promise to fix and un-fixable problem, risk will more likely than not be on unless we get headlines saying that they're not going to come up with anything. That said, I'm short the Aussie here just because I got stuck in a bad trade. lol But, I'm going to weather it out and add to my short at much higher levels should we get there because I believe ultimately the Aussie is going to .80s.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #37,094
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:13pm Dec 6, 2011 8:13pm
Quoting fx-rocket
IMHO the market, on the 1h timeframe, is ranging between 1.0300-1.0150.
Why expect price to reach 1.0400?

I am playing this range until it breaks free from it.

I hope everyone is banking pips here, take care...

what is your position?
im waiting for a break of those levels to enter.
in the meantime, im seeing EURUSD forming flat top triangle suggesting rally. im heading there to buy for a scalp.
  • #37,095
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:13pm Dec 6, 2011 8:13pm
totally agree (currently i am long a few lots - just about break even)

might even see 1.05; however, i think:

 

  1. aud/usd will test 80s low set back in 2009
  2. eur/usd will test 18s low set back in 2009 (and go to parity with the buck thereafter)

so the higher it goes the happier i am... cause i get get a better short :-)


Quoting Pipsforall
Right, but timing is everything, I think we're going into a Global recession next year, but this is the holiday time of year so damn the fundamentals, the US market wants to rally so the fat cats on Wall Street can get their bonuses. With Euro conference in 6 days, where they will once again promise to fix and un-fixable problem, risk will more likely than not be on unless we get headlines saying that they're not going to come up with anything. That said, I'm short the Aussie here just because I got stuck in a bad trade. lol But, I'm going to weather...
  • #37,096
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:15pm Dec 6, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting Pipsforall
Right, but timing is everything, I think we're going into a Global recession next year, but this is the holiday time of year so damn the fundamentals, the US market wants to rally so the fat cats on Wall Street can get their bonuses. With Euro conference in 6 days, where they will once again promise to fix and un-fixable problem, risk will more likely than not be on unless we get headlines saying that they're not going to come up with anything. That said, I'm short the Aussie here just because I got stuck in a bad trade. lol But, I'm going to weather...
SO i shorted aussie on the news yesterday made 80 pips. but at the moment, I've given half of my realized gains back in an unrealized loss -40 pips........so I'm kinda wondering if I should just salvage it and bail now, or keep going.......It could get a lot higher.
  • #37,097
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:15pm Dec 6, 2011 8:15pm
Also retailers are heavily headed short since intervention.... means consolidation before a huge move up in 1 or 2 days retailers will be fried.
  • #37,098
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:20pm Dec 6, 2011 8:20pm
i would either:
1) take my money and run
2) put a tight stop about 10 pips above the high around 028x

Quoting lolygagv2
SO i shorted aussie on the news yesterday made 80 pips. but at the moment, I've given half of my realized gains back in an unrealized loss -40 pips........so I'm kinda wondering if I should just salvage it and bail now, or keep going.......It could get a lot higher.
  • #37,099
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:28pm Dec 6, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i would either:
1) take my money and run
2) put a tight stop about 10 pips above the high around 028x
I did the second already......which I had to learn the hard way is absolutely necessary. However because I'm becoming a better and better trader, i'm also contemplating the probabilities with taking my loss now and running away
  • #37,100
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:32pm Dec 6, 2011 8:32pm
im flat; nothing going on; so i am going back and doing my day job (at night :-)
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