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AUD/USD

  • #37,061
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:20pm Dec 6, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting lolygagv2
The difference is of course, this is an expensive pair to hold short.......I'm down -20 pips about now......Not sure how happy I am about holding a loser and paying swap on it......I may hedge just to get back my swap.
well im holding a GU/AU short which is 120pip under,but its mini lots so dont mind holding as it might be another 100 pip drop on this pair to reach proper demand.
  • #37,062
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:22pm Dec 6, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting redteamgo
Where did you hear that?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...th-begins.html

There's a few more articles here and there, need to find it, but based on what happened, the summit would be a bad time to go long.

I'm working on the assumption that any semblance of good news (minus the details) will shoot this pair up to 1.05 region, if people are looking to short, that would be the place to start.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,063
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:23pm Dec 6, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
well im holding a GU/AU short which is 120pip under,but its mini lots so dont mind holding as it might be another 100 pip drop on this pair to reach proper demand.
In uncertain times, money management is king.

I have pairs that are deep in red, but as I'm still within my money management rules, I can still afford to hold them and trade additional mini lots.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,064
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:31pm Dec 6, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
In uncertain times, money management is king.

I have pairs that are deep in red, but as I'm still within my money management rules, I can still afford to hold them and trade additional mini lots.

I want to hold my Aussie short, but i don't want to pay Swap, if i get any profit out of this, i'll close, and re-open later. Worked great last night.

This time, I don't think I'm going to make it yet......I may cut and run, save my prophets from yesterday
  • #37,065
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:00pm Dec 6, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting lolygagv2
I want to hold my Aussie short, but i don't want to pay Swap, if i get any profit out of this, i'll close, and re-open later. Worked great last night.

This time, I don't think I'm going to make it yet......I may cut and run, save my prophets from yesterday
Glad i stuck with it, the fade should retrace that pop i think. i'm out at 1.0230
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,066
  • Edited 4:00pm Dec 6, 2011 3:13pm | Edited 4:00pm
i think a long at 1.0155-65 with a stop at 1.0145 would be a great trade if it get back down to last nights low.

took a small long at 0246 with a stop at 0233; just in case it move up from here (like insurance i dont miss the run); if i get stopped out, i will wait for a better entry.

so that small long didnt work out; took a 2.7 pip loss...not a good time to trade...staying flat until i see a good entry on the 1 or 4 hour chart :-)
  • #37,067
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:39pm Dec 6, 2011 3:39pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0240

Just when you thought it was safe to sell Aussie...

Running overnight positions into 2 other sessions Europe and New York is financial suicide given whats transpiring.

Should've would've could've bagged the cash and ran..

Today its Aussie GDP and another lottery on this one too however how many think RBA maybe given the heads up? Bad Number ?

Range 1.0150 1.0330 on the wide just incase my theory is
  • #37,068
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:41pm Dec 6, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i think a long at 1.0155-65 with a stop at 1.0145 would be a great trade if it get back down to last nights low.

took a small long at 0246 with a stop at 0233; just in case it move up from here (like insurance i dont miss the run); if i get stopped out, i will wait for a better entry.
I recently used 8H chart and 20EMA/SMA to see a movement potential and i find it is better than 4H chart to determine a reverse time. I also import a 150EMA to determine potential support/resistence. 1.0155-65 was tested twice, by last week and yesterday, by that time, it was above 20EMA/SMA based on 8H chart. However, if it test there today or tomorrow, it may close below it by that time and could break it to drop.

But your try is not bad, a very good stop so it has a small risk.
  • #37,069
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:47pm Dec 6, 2011 3:47pm
yes, from what i have found it normally take about 3 attempts to break support or resistance before it goes thru (thats why i am using a short stop) the reason i think it could go up again is that all the central banks have a lot in stake here if the euro goes bust. therefore, they are "investing" a lot into the euro not failing by buying. right now risk on means aud/usd goes up. also 1.04 would a great technical reversal point after the ecb fails this weekend.


Quoting Yuchen
I recently used 8H chart and 20EMA/SMA to see a movement potential and i find it is better than 4H chart to determine a reverse time. I also import a 150EMA to determine potential support/resistence. 1.0155-65 was tested twice, by last week and yesterday, by that time, it was above 20EMA/SMA based on 8H chart. However, if it test there today or tomorrow, it may close below it by that time and could break it to drop.

But your try is not bad, a very good stop so it has a small risk.
  • #37,070
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:15pm Dec 6, 2011 4:15pm
Shakeout... She wasn't very gentle...
  • #37,071
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:15pm Dec 6, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i think a long at 1.0155-65 with a stop at 1.0145 would be a great trade if it get back down to last nights low.

took a small long at 0246 with a stop at 0233; just in case it move up from here (like insurance i dont miss the run); if i get stopped out, i will wait for a better entry.

so that small long didnt work out; took a 2.7 pip loss...not a good time to trade...staying flat until i see a good entry on the 1 or 4 hour chart :-)
yup it's still ranging on the 1 hour TF...
  • #37,072
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:08pm Dec 6, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting Sixpack73
well i see now that there is speculation of a 2nd bailout fund. so i guess the play now is to cross your fingers and hit the buy button lol. everything is fixed! yay! /sarcasm
These guys are playing the letter game.
First it was EFSF. No one buying.
They decided, maybe fewer letters favorable to chinese and calls it ESM.
If that one fails, the third time will be the charm: "SOS" or just plain "HELP".
  • #37,073
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:13pm Dec 6, 2011 6:13pm
I'm going to short at here 1.0246 sl 25pip , just a little .put sell and buy stop to wait news.
  • #37,074
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:32pm Dec 6, 2011 6:32pm
Quoting ragnakore
These guys are playing the letter game.
First it was EFSF. No one buying.
They decided, maybe fewer letters favorable to chinese and calls it ESM.
If that one fails, the third time will be the charm: "SOS" or just plain "HELP".
then they switch to numbers like 911
  • #37,075
  • Edited 6:50pm Dec 6, 2011 6:33pm | Edited 6:50pm
no justification for this spike; however, i am not going to go against the herd this time -
long at 0271 - got stopped out with a close stop; dont want to risk too much here.
  • #37,076
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:37pm Dec 6, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
no justification for this spike; however, i am not going to go against the herd this time - still flat
Definitely agree. The market reaction is almost comical.
  • #37,077
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:40pm Dec 6, 2011 6:40pm
Move to news really makes no sense.... LOL!
  • #37,078
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:40pm Dec 6, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting Riskit
The market reaction is almost comical.
Yeah so Q2 revised to 1.4.......Exectation for Q3 was 1.2

Q3 was 1.0..........so it only got 71% of it's goal....or a drop of 30%, and yet...we rally. It's very interesting, wonder why the threshold was so low.
  • #37,079
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:44pm Dec 6, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Yeah so Q2 revised to 1.4.......Exectation for Q3 was 1.2

Q3 was 1.0..........so it only got 71% of it's goal....or a drop of 30%, and yet...we rally. It's very interesting, wonder why the threshold was so low.
"better than nothing!"
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,080
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:45pm Dec 6, 2011 6:45pm
There are times when the market makes no sense which is purely complimentary to the governments of the world.

This is one of these times..
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