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AUD/USD

  • #37,041
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:56am Dec 6, 2011 7:56am
just in:
S&P is placing EFSF long term AAA rating at negative watch.
EFSF can have rating of that of lowest member country.


if thats the case, EFSF can be considered junk instrument and therefore very very bad for euro!

i am not sure when this will happen though.. could be next week, next month, next year... oh yeah, all of those timeframes will happen just about next week.. (2 weeks left in the month/year and the last week is no market)
  • #37,042
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:17am Dec 6, 2011 11:17am
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Tell me when you are taking positions.. I can take the opposite.
OK... My instinct tells me to go SHORT 1.0230s
You should LONG instead! LOL

From the looks of it, the rejection at 1.0150 support and the recovery back to pre-RBA price is suggestive of an up move.

Just look at EURUSD, it aint dropping suggestive of EU in yet another dose of HOPIUM. Market is massive short EUR, short AUD, and the only logical thing is when these positions squares off (close), these will go the other way strong.

I should stay away shorting this pair for a while or go long instead, or better yet, wait for EU summit result.
  • #37,043
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:41am Dec 6, 2011 11:41am
Quoting ragnakore
OK... My instinct tells me to go SHORT 1.0230s
You should LONG instead! LOL

.
wow, that is amazing
As Above, So Below
  • #37,044
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:48am Dec 6, 2011 11:48am
I am short at 1.0208 waiting for a downward move, I am getting a little nervous about my position. Anyone got a feeling which way this may be heading?
  • #37,045
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:10pm Dec 6, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting 1MoreCandle
I am short at 1.0208 waiting for a downward move, I am getting a little nervous about my position. Anyone got a feeling which way this may be heading?
in my opinion, AUD/USD is still swing between 1.0150 to 1.0300. I have a bearish view for this pair for mid-term and long-term but i would like to wait a re-test to 1.0450-0550 to short it and i believe it must have to be stopped up at 1.0750 otherwise bearish will in trouble.
  • #37,046
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:18pm Dec 6, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting Yuchen
in my opinion, AUD/USD is still swing between 1.0150 to 1.0300. I have a bearish view for this pair for mid-term and long-term but i would like to wait a re-test to 1.0450-0550 to short it and i believe it must have to be stopped up at 1.0750 otherwise bearish will in trouble.
Yuchen, thanks for your input, it is much appreciated
  • #37,047
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:28pm Dec 6, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting 1MoreCandle
Yuchen, thanks for your input, it is much appreciated
1.0750.......you are trading weekly levels here, Yes, I think it's probably safe to say, if we hit 1.0750, we won't see .93 for a month or more at least.....if not 6+ months or a year. I however, doubt we'll see 1.075 before year is done.
  • #37,048
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:30pm Dec 6, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting 1MoreCandle
I am short at 1.0208 waiting for a downward move, I am getting a little nervous about my position. Anyone got a feeling which way this may be heading?

Are you still short 35+ pips later to the north?
  • #37,049
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:45pm Dec 6, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting lolygagv2
1.0750.......you are trading weekly levels here, Yes, I think it's probably safe to say, if we hit 1.0750, we won't see .93 for a month or more at least.....if not 6+ months or a year. I however, doubt we'll see 1.075 before year is done.
yeah, idealy, if it could get 1.0750, i would short with s/l above 1.0810.. however, it's hard for AU to get that high and seems 1.0450-0550 could be a nice resistence, i will enter my short at that level with s/l above 1.0810 and aim to 0.9700 or lower, short AU gets pain in rollover, however, if the trend is caught, the falling pips are also huge.
  • #37,050
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:02pm Dec 6, 2011 1:02pm
The forex is rigged....

Well - today might be a solid example....
  • #37,051
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:51pm Dec 6, 2011 1:51pm
This is bounce to 1.0261 is looking very short-worthy.. but i dont think its done yet. Maybe 1.0280-90.. maybe 1.03
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,052
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:55pm Dec 6, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting redteamgo
This is bounce to 1.0261 is looking very short-worthy.. but i dont think its done yet. Maybe 1.0280-90.. maybe 1.03

I took a short at 1.025, getting a little bit apprehensive, may move Stops......or get out. Again, this doesn't seem supported, it's all a big joke so far though.....
  • #37,053
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:56pm Dec 6, 2011 1:56pm
i guess i'm really struggling to understand the reason for the rise. i mean yesterday we have a gradual afternoon selloff, then a fast (but short) plummet when the rate decision came out...now we've all but retraced yesterday's entire move and I don't see any news that could be the catalyst.

what am i missing? I realize there is a lot of hope about the Euro committee on Friday, but to retrace all of yesterday's move? i just cant figure it out. I'm really hoping a pro can explain the dynamics to me that are at work here, cause not knowing is very frustrating.
  • #37,054
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:58pm Dec 6, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting Sixpack73
i guess i'm really struggling to understand the reason for the rise. i mean yesterday we have a gradual afternoon selloff, then a fast (but short) plummet when the rate decision came out...now we've all but retraced yesterday's entire move and I don't see any news that could be the catalyst.

what am i missing? I realize there is a lot of hope about the Euro committee on Friday, but to retrace all of yesterday's move? i just cant figure it out. I'm really hoping a pro can explain the dynamics to me that are at work here, cause not knowing...
Could be an institutional movement .. it seems without logic to me which is why I am planning to line up a short. I just need confirmation and I'm in at market

1.0306 is the 100d MA.. and there is no way its breaking that without great risk on headline out of EUR or AUD
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,055
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:59pm Dec 6, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting ragnakore
OK... My instinct tells me to go SHORT 1.0230s
You should LONG instead! LOL

From the looks of it, the rejection at 1.0150 support and the recovery back to pre-RBA price is suggestive of an up move.

Just look at EURUSD, it aint dropping suggestive of EU in yet another dose of HOPIUM. Market is massive short EUR, short AUD, and the only logical thing is when these positions squares off (close), these will go the other way strong.

I should stay away shorting this pair for a while or go long instead, or better yet, wait for EU summit result.
LOL... it's really the opposite, if you'd taken the long, you would have bagged 30 pips. I just closed all my longs for 100 pips from the bounce
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,056
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:02pm Dec 6, 2011 2:02pm
For those who are planning to short, be careful.

If the rumours from the summit is true and it is expected that some form of financial union is coming through, we could realistically see a 200-300 pip jump once the news come out (similar to the summit early last month)

If you still want to short, don't go with big sizes.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,057
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:06pm Dec 6, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
For those who are planning to short, be careful.

If the rumours from the summit is true and it is expected that some form of financial union is coming through, we could realistically see a 200-300 pip jump once the news come out (similar to the summit early last month)

If you still want to short, don't go with big sizes.
Where did you hear that?
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #37,058
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:06pm Dec 6, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting Sixpack73
i guess i'm really struggling to understand the reason for the rise. i mean yesterday we have a gradual afternoon selloff, then a fast (but short) plummet when the rate decision came out...now we've all but retraced yesterday's entire move and I don't see any news that could be the catalyst.

what am i missing? I realize there is a lot of hope about the Euro committee on Friday, but to retrace all of yesterday's move? i just cant figure it out. I'm really hoping a pro can explain the dynamics to me that are at work here, cause not knowing...
trying to kill the shorts i guess ,when EU dropped its interest rate recently it took about two days for the effect to come into play,maybe same goes for this pair.
  • #37,059
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:12pm Dec 6, 2011 2:12pm
well i see now that there is speculation of a 2nd bailout fund. so i guess the play now is to cross your fingers and hit the buy button lol. everything is fixed! yay! /sarcasm
  • #37,060
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:12pm Dec 6, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
trying to kill the shorts i guess ,when EU dropped its interest rate recently it took about two days for the effect to come into play,maybe same goes for this pair.

The difference is of course, this is an expensive pair to hold short.......I'm down -20 pips about now......Not sure how happy I am about holding a loser and paying swap on it......I may hedge just to get back my swap.
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