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  • #36,941
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:15pm Dec 5, 2011 12:15pm
Is realistic....

Why cut rates NOW if your the RBA.... nothing has been resolved..... then thats .25 less point you have to cut - when you really NEED to...

I mean - all this coverage and meetings this week - HOPIUM is likely to continue until it can't anymore....

So I feel a rally up to 1.05 is highly probable.... 1.10 - I'm not so sure....

They are going to do all they can - until they realize there is nothing they can do.... which means they can even get the Market so HIGH on HOPIUM - that the EUR/USD hits 1.38 again before the big fall...

Write downs are ESSENTIAL... until they agree and realize that they need to RESTRUCTURE.... they are going to do EVERYTHING they can to avoid it...

I mean a failure to cut rates - sees 1.04 at least.... thats only 100 pips away from 1.05.... inline with the down trend of the last 2 tops on the daily... it looks like 1.05 area is the next in line....

SO... what does that mean... be cautious... anything can happen this week... we all know they are poised to fall.... its just about WHEN....

and how much they are going to throw on the fire....
  • #36,942
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:22pm Dec 5, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting Forexgain
Everytime i short this pair i left with no other choice instead to exit in Loss... This is making me sick.. why the hell this pair is not falling down...

This should correlate with E/U and G/U.. even N/U is also not rising that much this A/U is rising..
no, no, and no.
  • #36,943
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:32pm Dec 5, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting Teddicus
Is realistic....

Why cut rates NOW if your the RBA.... nothing has been resolved..... then thats .25 less point you have to cut - when you really NEED to...

I mean - all this coverage and meetings this week - HOPIUM is likely to continue until it can't anymore....

So I feel a rally up to 1.05 is highly probable.... 1.10 - I'm not so sure....

They are going to do all they can - until they realize there is nothing they can do.... which means they can even get the Market so HIGH on HOPIUM - that the EUR/USD hits 1.38 again before the big...
Well a high AUD is beginning to be problem is aussie, the local mnfr's are being squeezed by competition in China and other emerging countries. It is in their best interest to not have such a strong AUD, a fine balance. Not sure what that # is, but above parity is causing a recession.
  • #36,944
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:51pm Dec 5, 2011 12:51pm
After so many trades finally my A/U trade gt closed in green...

thanks to EU news...
  • #36,945
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:11pm Dec 5, 2011 2:11pm
Im just waiting for Central bank news later. I reckon 25BPS cut, on forescast, but a 50 point cut wouldn't surprise me. Would send EURAUD to the sky.
  • #36,946
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:13pm Dec 5, 2011 2:13pm
Well according to some brokers there is only a mere 2% difference in longs and shorts on AU so,speaking about Au reaching 1.04 or 1.05 and staying Above that level is just wishful thinking same as saying Eur gonna reach 1.40 again in next few weeks.the last data shows there's a decrease in china and also AU house market,which is in per-recession Europe phase,once china stops no one gonna need Aussie,so its smart to prepare yourself for a soft landing then a full face crash like Europe,or US had and still have.
  • #36,947
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:51pm Dec 5, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
and staying Above that level

Never said that....

I said 1.05 before the full crash you speak of...

and todays headline trading.... looks like a preview of the Volitile week we have in store....

A Battle between Hopium and The inevitable (sp?)

Atlas meets achillies... and the arrow is already in the air.... aimed for the heel...
  • #36,948
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:16pm Dec 5, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Im just waiting for Central bank news later. I reckon 25BPS cut, on forescast, but a 50 point cut wouldn't surprise me. Would send EURAUD to the sky.
I am still hold my long-term long position for EUR/AUD at 1.30998. The 4H downward trendline is still valid and unfortunately, it broken last week's support at 1.306X level.. the next support is at 1.302X level which was tested and the final support will be at 1.293X level (is last year's strong support level) and my s/l is at 1.2900 in case of a spike. Let's see if AU rates cut will have any effects on this pair.. If it does cut 50 basis point, EUR/AUD will probably break the 4H downward trendline, otherwise it will still struggle.. 6 more hours and we will see the result.
  • #36,949
  • Dec 5, 2011 4:07pm Dec 5, 2011 4:07pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0270

Well you have to wonder what braincells are behind these moves.
S+P puts europe on creditwatch.. RBA may drop interest rates..
Now that would spell S E L L for Aussie.

It may prove however the market is still short or that many are looking to buy on any dip.. (Rehab vouchers maybe a good xmas pressy for these dudes)..

Today always expect the unexpected. RBA Glen Stevens being hair follicly challenged may get his ownly chance to play Santa with overly generous rate cuts..

Range .. pick a number .. its a lottery..

Good luck
  • #36,950
  • Edited 5:45pm Dec 5, 2011 5:10pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD @ 1.0270

Well you have to wonder what braincells are behind these moves.
S+P puts europe on creditwatch.. RBA may drop interest rates..
Now that would spell S E L L for Aussie.

It may prove however the market is still short or that many are looking to buy on any dip.. (Rehab vouchers maybe a good xmas pressy for these dudes)..

Today always expect the unexpected. RBA Glen Stevens being hair follicly challenged may get his ownly chance to play Santa with overly generous rate cuts..

Range .. pick a number .. its a lottery.....
i think it will hold until Current Account [11:30am] then it will take direction. i not feel good for trading now.
my view on RBA - on hold - but i am not betting on it
Mohan
  • #36,951
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:00pm Dec 5, 2011 6:00pm
Still shortio... with SL @ 1.0340
To Your Success!!
  • #36,952
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:20pm Dec 5, 2011 6:20pm
Im only a newbe to FX trading but here's my thoughts anyway...

I think were about to see a bullish run start within the next hour and I'm hoping to get in long and snatch 30 odd pips so I can set my SL at BE before the cash rate comes out.

We all know the Euro zone is in a bad way. Is there a solution to make everything all fine and dandy again? I doubt it.... Hopium as you call it is coming to an end very soon but a spike up to 1.04 is on the Horizon before a crach back dwn to 0.97.

I dont "believe" the fed reserve will cut the cash rate, but you never know what there thinking. With such uncertanty in the Euro zone and the volatility that accompanies it I think RBA might just hold on the rate cut and see how this Eurozone pans out.

just my 2c
Enter Signature
  • #36,953
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:42pm Dec 5, 2011 6:42pm
Sounds like a pretty solid plan to me, cover all bases

Quoting ChipsnPips
Im only a newbe to FX trading but here's my thoughts anyway...

I think were about to see a bullish run start within the next hour and I'm hoping to get in long and snatch 30 odd pips so I can set my SL at BE before the cash rate comes out.

We all know the Euro zone is in a bad way. Is there a solution to make everything all fine and dandy again? I doubt it.... Hopium as you call it is coming to an end very soon but a spike up to 1.04 is on the Horizon before a crach back dwn to 0.97.

I dont "believe" the fed reserve will cut the cash rate,...
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #36,954
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:50pm Dec 5, 2011 6:50pm
SSI is getting too NET SHORT at -1.93 (1.93 shorts per every 1 long)
I wont be shorting this pair unless that number goes back to a neutral level lower than 1.2

We might even see a NO CUT today and this will rally 100~200 pips taking out the SHORTS.
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  • #36,955
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:58pm Dec 5, 2011 6:58pm
i can see a chance for a bounce on the 1H chart at around 1.023 at the 23.6 fib level converging with 60 EMA and the stoch going into oversold territory, any thoughts?
Trade what you see, not what you think
  • #36,956
  • Dec 5, 2011 7:10pm Dec 5, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting ads213
i can see a chance for a bounce on the 1H chart at around 1.023 at the 23.6 fib level converging with 60 EMA and the stoch going into oversold territory, any thoughts?
Still shortio with SL@ 1.0340
To Your Success!!
  • #36,957
  • Dec 5, 2011 7:15pm Dec 5, 2011 7:15pm
All locked at even or possitve p. Looking to close lower, 30m prior to data with w/ expected spikes...GL!
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  • #36,958
  • Dec 5, 2011 8:32pm Dec 5, 2011 8:32pm
shorted early in day, 1.02973... just closed @1.02403. not willing to ride out RB. Wait-n-see mode at this time.
  • #36,959
  • Dec 5, 2011 8:42pm Dec 5, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting BurgerKing
SSI is getting too NET SHORT at -1.93 (1.93 shorts per every 1 long)
I wont be shorting this pair unless that number goes back to a neutral level lower than 1.2

We might even see a NO CUT today and this will rally 100~200 pips taking out the SHORTS.
Welcome back.. How was your china trip?
  • #36,960
  • Dec 5, 2011 8:43pm Dec 5, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting Riskit
shorted early in day, 1.02973... just closed @1.02403. not willing to ride out RB. Wait-n-see mode at this time.
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