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Fail Better

  • #2,101
  • Dec 3, 2011 2:36am Dec 3, 2011 2:36am
Hey Tom,

Followed you on the other forum as TD and here, great thread, seems like your trading has evolved.

I use spread betting as I am from the UK, but there charts are a bit cumbersome compared with Meta Trader. Do you still use SB or do you trader with MT4 now?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #2,102
  • Dec 3, 2011 3:15pm Dec 3, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting markmm
Hey Tom,

Followed you on the other forum as TD and here, great thread, seems like your trading has evolved.

I use spread betting as I am from the UK, but there charts are a bit cumbersome compared with Meta Trader. Do you still use SB or do you trader with MT4 now?
Alpari have just launched a spreadbetting service and I think that includes MT4 charting. I kow what you mean, I've always been a spreadbetter, and used their charting packages, but recently opened a real forex a/c with mt4 charts. Wow. It was like entering the matrix!
  • #2,103
  • Dec 4, 2011 1:04pm Dec 4, 2011 1:04pm
GKFX/SLM also offer spread betting via MT4
Follow me on twitter: @shantrades
  • #2,104
  • Dec 4, 2011 4:14pm Dec 4, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting the_wizard
The first was no interaction. That means either the stop was hit or the target was hit. Nothing else is accepted.

The second was moving to breakeven when the trade is up a 0.5 R and then leaving it to either run onto the target or come back to breakeven.

The final was trailing a stop behind each hourly candle as soon as the trade is entered until either the stop is hit or the target is.

This was the outcome:

No interaction was the only one of the four exit strategies that would have made money in the period they did it for. The record provided...
What you presented here is golden. Another vouch in the till . Interesting that trailing stops came in with the worst results but favoured by most.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,105
  • Edited 12:12pm Dec 5, 2011 12:10pm | Edited 12:12pm
Long at around 1.0073?

BTW does anyone trade this method regularly and successfully on shares??

thx..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,106
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:17pm Dec 5, 2011 12:17pm
Opposite to the AUDUSD

Short at about 1.0257 ??
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  • #2,107
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:53pm Dec 5, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting gdb
Opposite to the AUDUSD

Short at about 1.0257 ??
The previous support doesn't look that convincing only had one touch, and was washed a lot before?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #2,108
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:41pm Dec 6, 2011 2:41pm
I had my eye to buy the Dec FTSE at 5415, but I see Tom would prefer to wait for it break through that level and retest the lower level of 5344.

An interesting perspective, and reminder (to me at least) that I should be identifying ALL of the levels first, and then deciding which is the best one(s) to trade from. I have the tendency to just look for the nearest decent level. The risk with that approach I guess is that I inevitably end up not being as picky as I should be, because I have nothing nearby to compare to.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc 2011-12-06 FTSE Dec 11.doc   110 KB | 375 downloads
  • #2,109
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:05pm Dec 6, 2011 8:05pm
Hi Tom,
I'd like to find out if you do trade for people.
What is the minimum amount and how does the mechanism work?

Thank you
  • #2,110
  • Dec 8, 2011 4:24am Dec 8, 2011 4:24am
This could be a potential RR, good restistance but price is pushing looking to break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RR AUDUSD 2011-12-08_122225.jpg Size: 65 KB
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #2,111
  • Dec 8, 2011 5:15am Dec 8, 2011 5:15am
Quoting markmm
This could be a potential RR, good restistance but price is pushing looking to break.
Nice level.

There are a few pairs building up nice levels at the moment.

  • #2,112
  • Dec 8, 2011 5:37am Dec 8, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Gt3rs
Nice level.

There are a few pairs building up nice levels at the moment.

Yeah the NZD and CAD have all broken S/R and looks like hit stops that had been building and shot through.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #2,113
  • Dec 8, 2011 6:05am Dec 8, 2011 6:05am
Quoting markmm
Yeah the NZD and CAD have all broken S/R and looks like hit stops that had been building and shot through.
Looks like it was the ecb rate cut spike? Back down to the channels.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #2,114
  • Dec 8, 2011 10:10am Dec 8, 2011 10:10am
Looking at this now, looking more controlled than the spike earlier. Hoping my funds are in to broker before this one triggers, or I will watching it.

Seems quiet in here does no one post anymore?The_Wizard? Is there a Skype room I am missing?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RR NZDUSD 2011-12-08_180817.jpg Size: 68 KB
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #2,115
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:08pm Dec 8, 2011 8:08pm
2 very nice ones on the AUD and EUR USD pairs yesterday (hourly) that have dropped a bucket. I missed both on account of being away but to anyone who took them you are now up around 200 pips AUD and about 80/90 on the EUR. The AUD was the pick of them though, it was beautiful and it smashed down some 70/80 pips in the first hour.

I am now long at the last broken highs for their retest. Small position which I will scale into if needed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD SFP hourly 8_12_11.JPG Size: 253 KB
  • #2,116
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:04am Dec 9, 2011 12:04am
Quoting Razor_trader
2 very nice ones on the AUD and EUR USD pairs yesterday (hourly) that have dropped a bucket. I missed both on account of being away but to anyone who took them you are now up around 200 pips AUD and about 80/90 on the EUR. The AUD was the pick of them though, it was beautiful and it smashed down some 70/80 pips in the first hour.

I am now long at the last broken highs for their retest. Small position which I will scale into if needed.
Hi Razor,

The SFP certainly gave a great entry into Dollar longs.

I went short the NZD/USD after the H1 SFP formation and rode that down to the channel lows.

You had to be pretty fast on that one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,117
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:05am Dec 9, 2011 12:05am
Quoting markmm
Hey Tom,

Followed you on the other forum as TD and here, great thread, seems like your trading has evolved.

I use spread betting as I am from the UK, but there charts are a bit cumbersome compared with Meta Trader. Do you still use SB or do you trader with MT4 now?
Hi Mark,

Thank you for reading :-)

I still use MT4 for charting and SB to trade.
  • #2,118
  • Dec 9, 2011 12:06am Dec 9, 2011 12:06am
Quoting rivercrosser
Hi Tom,
I'd like to find out if you do trade for people.
What is the minimum amount and how does the mechanism work?

Thank you
Hi rivercrosser,

I trade only for myself.

Tom
  • #2,119
  • Dec 9, 2011 1:03am Dec 9, 2011 1:03am
I thought you only used sfp for bias on the daily.


Quote
I went short the NZD/USD after the H1 SFP formation and rode that down to the channel lows.
Support the Resistance
  • #2,120
  • Dec 9, 2011 3:30am Dec 9, 2011 3:30am
Hi Traders,

Sorry for the lack of posts recently. I am still around. My mother was really ill so I took some time off and we've had a temporary hiatus from the Sunday webinars.

I have not been checking the thread here so if you posted a question and I haven't answered it, I apologise!

I've got more time on my hands now and will be starting up the webinars again in the New Year. (I'm sure you all have more pressing things to do in the last few weeks before Christmas than hear me talk strategy for two hours - we'll save that for the cold January evenings ;-))

In the meantime, here are some markets and their respective levels that I am watching. (see posts below)
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