Dislikedthats what I was gonna say Aaron. My take on the swap ratecut announcement runup and NFP drop is it was bigbig insider moves. I'm pissed cuz I positioned my NFP gamble long. made money but the short money was alot better and i just sat there with my dck in my hand crying.
i don't really know wtf to think at this point. seems like the risk paradigm re: currencies has been flirting with a shift. further ECB rate cut(s) will facilitate that. And as yet another freakin summit to save the freakin euro comes on us I'd have to expect tweeted leaks and...Ignored
Anyway, the solution to tweets is simple. If you are aligned with it, cash out when it runs out of momentum. If not, take your loss like a man and then revenge trade the moment it runs out of momentum. Best case scenario is to ride it both ways.
I was on the other side of the NFP trade. Not because of intelligent design though, but because I see the Euro has a lot more downside that upside. That and the swoosh pattern + the dud response to the NFP.
You go to wonder about what the top of the risk on trade is. US election year + Euro recession + China slowdown + impending collapse of the financial system adds up to a pretty negative picture. Then you look at the dow and think about the double top cap... is it really going to start making new highs anytime soon? And if not, then there is a lot more room to the downside than the upside.
But still, the CBs are pretty crafty. And maybe we shouldn't hate them because they are trying to save the world.
I wonder what the response to announcing fiscal unity will be? IMO we are about 2 years and 3 near death experiences away from this ultimate goal of European leaders.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
