AUD/USD

Why long????



Next Tuesday the RBA will decide to stay put or even maybe cut the interest rates by a quarter of a percent because there is no meeting in January.

Cheers

I'm short for the whole of next week at least

I was thinking about the xmas season myself and here was my take on it.
Retailers are bracing for their worst xmas sales season in 30 years. Personally, I feel now is a great time to cut rates and bolster confidence. Just my thought this morning at 5.30am while in the car heading off to train some obvious insomniacs.

If price closes at this level I will enter a short Monday. At the moment price is below the 50 fib, below the 200ema and that daily bar is screaming to go downhill.

Had a better week this week compared to last week, a difference of 900 pips (overall 1200 pips week) as my persistence in going long paid off.

Still thinking about going short next week, but it depends if we break 1.015 cleanly (or we start below that to start off the week). If we start with a positive gap, might continue long (with the expectation that HOPIUM will take us all the way to 1.1 and upwards)

I think I will stick with outlooks stretching to one session at a time as this seems to suite my attention span at the moment. Going short Monday.

Looks like we have to vacate our new place while vital structural damage is fixed. Not happy and will no longer be able to participate here as temporary alternative has no internet and baby due soon.

So I am reluctantly leaving.
Have fun guys.
Phil

heard there is going to be 9 euro meetings next week...dont see how any will be that great of news for the euro.

i hope we get a 100 pip spike on open Sunday night; then i short for the whole week. probably split between audusd and eurusd

might even short the euraud (that might be really interesting)

hi this is my first post here but have been reading the forum for a few weeks now. thought this may be of interest to you all. this is pasted from news section of ff

" Barely has the USD/Renminbi (or RMB) contract started to trade on the CME and already the exchange decided to hike the margin by 18.5%. And not only: in a broad action across the board, the CME hiked margins in some key FX contracts, including Aussie Dollar, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Forint, Zloty, and the Koruna. In addition, CME hiked two Interest Rate products including EM and I3. So if anyone was wondering why the AUDXXX dropped after hours, now you know. "

From zerohedge.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif Barely has the USD/Renminbi (or RMB) contract started to trade on the CME and already the exchange decided to hike the margin by 18.5%. And not only: in a broad action across the board, the CME hiked margins in some key FX contracts, including Aussie Dollar, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Forint, Zloty, and the Koruna. In addition, CME hiked two Interest Rate products including EM and I3. So if anyone was wondering why the AUDXXX dropped after hours, now you know.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ke.gif?v=1.0.0

From FF news: "Speculators increased by more than half their bets that the dollar will strengthen last week, piling on net wagers worth $17.8 billion as of Nov. 29. That represented the largest net position in favor of the dollar since June 2010, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly report on the commitments of traders showed Friday.

The 54% jump in optimistic bets on the dollar's rise comes during a period of high global tension over the fate of the euro and Europe's economy.

Investors have abandoned the common currency as fears about European countries' fiscal woes have taken hold. Last week the market held net wagers that the euro will fall worth $17.4 billion, or 104,302 contracts, up 21% from the previous week, the CFTC's data showed. That was the largest net bet against the euro since May 2010.

Traders maintained their views on the yen's prospects, holding 7% fewer bets that the yen will rise, or a net $6.5 billion. Net contracts on the yen's strengthening totaled 40,547.

The Swiss franc, which has benefited from a strong show of support by the Swiss National Bank, suffered from a sharp downshift in investor sentiment. Traders bet a net $1.3 billion, up 58% from last week, that the franc will decline, or 9,327 contracts.

More investors also thought the Canadian dollar and British pound will decline. The market held a net $2.6 billion in bets against the Canadian dollar, up 22%, and a net $4.5 billion in bets against the pound, up 27%.

Investors were also considerably less optimistic about the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The market's bets were down 29% in favor of the Australian dollar and 52% for the New Zealand dollar"

No of course I don't want to blow my account, but blowing it at this stage is impossible since I've pulled out over 400% on my account already. Whatever is in there now is only a small % of my total profit reserves. Fortunately, I do not compound and pull my gains out...so even if something drastic like this happens, it will be very difficult to do that.

In any case, I'm still in those moves believe it or not

This week I see 1.04-1.05 on the horizon, May stop at 1.01 before it gets there.... but I see the 1.04 - 1.05 handle as the final leg before the sky starts falling....

straddle up.

My veiw..GL!

AUD/USD @1.0242

Good moaning..

A raft of data out this week just to keep your head spinning more from those xmas party liquidity surpluses.

So with this fundamental frenzy this week expect - gyrations..

Its time to bag the cash rather than running it for too long.. These markets are twitchy..

Happy hunting

Hi Yuchen,

I had jumped on this trend as well since Monday/Tue last week. It is now at 1.3092 hoping than when Asia opens it will go up. SL is at 1.2900

This week focuses back on Europe. The World has been in "Hopium" and rallied all week long.

USA Republicans are suspicious of the "ECB loan to IMF to loan back to Europe" scheme.

I personally suspect that Europe wants to use IMF as a leverage tool. ECB will loan the current EFSF money (E500B) to IMF, then IMF will loan back a much bigger amount (E2T). IMF is hugely USA. And Republicans are up in arms. They dont want any of this stuff and is suspicious as to why Tim Geithner is in Europe this week, possibly to finalize this "leverage"?

Last week's candles are mixed. Huge bullish candles piercing the channel with conviction indicating massive rally. Yet the thursday and friday candles shows a reversal. I was thinking we'd open below 1.0200 today, but it didnt. We shot up back to 1.0260 as of this writing.

But last week is last week. Now will be Objective Fundamentals week: RBA, Europe Summit, AU Employment, HOPIUM, ECB-IMF deal, China CPI. All these will weight heavily on AUD.

I wanna see another attempt for AUDUSD to break 1.0300; and if it fails, AUD will fall. I;d be careful to trade just yet; so mixed signals. COT shows big boys shorting. Will AUDUSD follow?

The world is in HOPIUM. Will it last?

As long as the world is feed constantly with HOPIUM, rally will continue:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...ency-plan.html

quant target 1.0273 buy

shorted @ 1.0244