AUD/JPY strategy | Forex Factory

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AUD/JPY strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 24, 2011 11:28am Nov 24, 2011 11:28am
Found this on the net.Ea included...

Wednesday AUD/JPY strategy — this trading system exploits the certain tendency of AUD/JPY currency pair (Australian dollar vs. Japanese yen) to be statistically bearish during the pre-last hour before the rollover interest is applied on Wednesday. The particular day of the week was chosen because on Wednesday the rollover is tripled compared to normal days (Sunday and Saturday interests fall on Wednesday). It's unknown why AUD/JPY, a pair with a traditionally positive rollover interest, is sold 1-2 hours before the overnight swap is applied. Perhaps, traders (hedge funds) with big bullish positions prefer this time to partially close their positions without bothering the markets too much.
Features

 

  1. Fundamental base for trading.
  2. Very simple strategy.
  3. Statistically perfect.
  4. Only one trade per week.
  5. Jump-like changes in the interest rate may affect it.

Strategy Set-Up

 

  1. Trade only on Wednesdays.
  2. Open an hourly chart of AUD/JPY pair.

Entry Conditions

At 15:00 EST (GMT-5 or GMT-4 during daylight saving time) open a Short position.
No stop-loss or take-profit.
Exit Conditions

When the new bar opens (16:00 EST) close your position.
Example
Wednesday 2009-10-14 Wednesday 10-21
http://www.earnforex.com/forex-strat...py-chart-1.png http://www.earnforex.com/forex-strat...py-chart-2.png

Wednesday 2009-10-28 Wednesday 2009-11-04
http://www.earnforex.com/forex-strat...py-chart-3.png http://www.earnforex.com/forex-strat...py-chart-4.png

The H1 bar that occurred on 15:00 EST is marked with the red ellipse. The statistical gain from selling during that hour was 400 pips after 44 weeks. That's ~9.1 pip per deal, which is above the average spread for AUD/JPY (5 pips). Of course, there are some Wednesdays when the strategy results in a loss, but in a long run, it's profitable.

Looks real good in the tester. Very crude backtest 1/1/01 to 11/23/11. Not bad!!!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.gif Size: 11 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AUDJPYWednesday1500.mq4   3 KB | 719 downloads
  • #2
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:46pm Nov 28, 2011 5:46pm
So to clarify, Wednesday 15:00 est is 3pm, which is 1pm Wednesday mountain time USA. Is this correct?
You know, with enough leverage, this could be a great little addon strategy!
Thanks for sharing...
May you be the Sun of your days, and the Star of your nights
  • #3
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:22pm Nov 28, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting CasinoEdge
So to clarify, Wednesday 15:00 est is 3pm, which is 1pm Wednesday mountain time USA. Is this correct?
You know, with enough leverage, this could be a great little addon strategy!
Thanks for sharing...
As with trading, it is best if you can work things out for yourself, no offence intended

http://www.timeanddate.com/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #4
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:42am Nov 29, 2011 12:42am
Quoting Erebus
As with trading, it is best if you can work things out for yourself, no offence intended

http://www.timeanddate.com/
could the time be any more confusing!!!!
thanks for the link
  • #5
  • Nov 29, 2011 1:09am Nov 29, 2011 1:09am
Quoting jiva34
could the time be any more confusing!!!!
thanks for the link
Sure, how about this?

Depending on your broker switching to Daylight Savings Time (DST) and where you live, DST or not, you may have to adjust your settings 2 or 4 times per year.

Here is a cute, mainly stockmarket, clock, dig into the website and you will find you can save that as a screensaver, cool

http://www.stocktime.ru/razrez8.swf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: clock.JPG Size: 163 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #6
  • Nov 29, 2011 2:04am Nov 29, 2011 2:04am
Quoting Erebus
Sure, how about this?

Depending on your broker switching to Daylight Savings Time (DST) and where you live, DST or not, you may have to adjust your settings 2 or 4 times per year.

Here is a cute, mainly stockmarket, clock, dig into the website and you will find you can save that as a screensaver, cool

http://www.stocktime.ru/razrez8.swf
  • #7
  • Dec 1, 2011 11:43am Dec 1, 2011 11:43am
Jiva, how did you do if you took yesterday's trade?
May you be the Sun of your days, and the Star of your nights
  • #8
  • Dec 1, 2011 11:54am Dec 1, 2011 11:54am
Quoting CasinoEdge
Jiva, how did you do if you took yesterday's trade?
Didn't take a trade Weds.
Would have been a bad trade.
There was an explanation that the strategy is affected by the rollover rates or something like that. Sometimes the rates are significant enough to make a difference.
It seems like, in looking at the chart history it hasn't been a good trade for a long time. Maybe the rates aren't right now???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #9
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:15pm Dec 1, 2011 12:15pm
Yea, I followed it yet did not take it. Would have lost about 18-20 pips.
May you be the Sun of your days, and the Star of your nights
  • #10
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:39pm Dec 1, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting CasinoEdge
Yea, I followed it yet did not take it. Would have lost about 18-20 pips.
I like the strategy but maybe present market conditions are not favorable. The rate thing not right. Oh well.
You're invited, this is one I am trading live. Just started but it is making a big difference...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5133703
  • #11
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:29pm Dec 1, 2011 1:29pm
Yes, I've been following it since the 19th. A nice work-in-progress. I feel like you, that trading higher timeframes is safer and more profitable with less stress and work...Keep it up!
May you be the Sun of your days, and the Star of your nights
  • #12
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:35am Dec 2, 2011 10:35am
more ideal if after you sold the short (based on the historical data seeming to confirm a profitable pattern) you turned around and bought long at 4:55 PM EST to catch the triple rollover, and then closed it out shortly after 5 PM EST at break-even?

Did I miss something? It seems like you are just doing a quick short there and avoiding the interest rollover. Right now the interest differential should be pretty good on a long position AUD/JPY.

Speaking of rollover on a long AUD/JPY, what would be a good hedge currency that has negative correlation to AUD/JPY so as to smooth out gains/losses and just pick up interest (hopefully positive interest on both currency pairs)? I'm looking for some more stable returns via carry trades, but I think I missed the bottom on AUD/JPY by a good bit.

Thanks!


pax
  • #13
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:24pm Dec 2, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting paxgaea
more ideal if after you sold the short (based on the historical data seeming to confirm a profitable pattern) you turned around and bought long at 4:55 PM EST to catch the triple rollover, and then closed it out shortly after 5 PM EST at break-even?

Did I miss something? It seems like you are just doing a quick short there and avoiding the interest rollover. Right now the interest differential should be pretty good on a long position AUD/JPY.

Speaking of rollover on a long AUD/JPY, what would be a good hedge currency that has negative correlation...
How about enter long 5 mins before cut off, put a tight stop 10 pips? if prices move up by 10 pips close half position, move stop to be +5 for rest of position. trail in case of a move significantly higher.

catch the rollover, and possible good move.

tight stop means minimal risk. In any case collect the rollover.
Looking at back history, this could work with good probability of success.
  • #14
  • Aug 8, 2017 11:16pm Aug 8, 2017 11:16pm
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  • #15
  • Last Post: Aug 10, 2017 11:19am Aug 10, 2017 11:19am
Starting small
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