What do you think, Usd/Cad up? | Forex Factory

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What do you think, Usd/Cad up?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 17, 2006 2:56am Apr 17, 2006 2:56am
Hi

What do you think about the Usd/Cad ?

It lost 300 pips so quicly, in a long and continue moove.

Is it time to buy strongly ? to profit of each more decrease to reinforcement ?

I feel it good and i take one 1st position buying at 1.1470 (leverage 5). I aim 1.1530 or more.

Have you got an opinion ?
  • #2
  • Apr 17, 2006 10:15am Apr 17, 2006 10:15am
Quoting pablo88
Hi

What do you think about the Usd/Cad ?

It lost 300 pips so quicly, in a long and continue moove.

Is it time to buy strongly ? to profit of each more decrease to reinforcement ?

I feel it good and i take one 1st position buying at 1.1470 (leverage 5). I aim 1.1530 or more.

Have you got an opinion ?
hello pablo, this pair is at twenty year lows and the canadian dollar futures are at twenty year highs. many many people are setting up position trades in both the futures and forex markets for a possible long term correction.
  • #3
  • Apr 17, 2006 10:54am Apr 17, 2006 10:54am
Hello Pablo,

You're trying to guess in advance what a currency is going to do in the future. You're playing the oracle game. Basically, you're entering your trades purely based on a merry guess.

That's not what trading is about. Sorry to be blunt mate, but unless you get yourself educated and stop trying to guess what's gonna happen, you'll keep losing money.
  • #4
  • Apr 17, 2006 12:59pm Apr 17, 2006 12:59pm
Quoting james16
hello pablo, this pair is at twenty year lows and the canadian dollar futures are at twenty year highs. many many people are setting up position trades in both the futures and forex markets for a possible long term correction.
Jim, what about rising gold, silver, copper, Aluminun, steel and all other metal prices?? Isn't this strongly bullish for the CAD against the USD???

I bet on the other side....Short USD/CAD....


Thanks,

Nader
  • #5
  • Apr 17, 2006 1:44pm Apr 17, 2006 1:44pm
Quoting narafa
Jim, what about rising gold, silver, copper, Aluminun, steel and all other metal prices?? Isn't this strongly bullish for the CAD against the USD???

I bet on the other side....Short USD/CAD....


Thanks,

Nader

im playing the futures with way out put options. i honestly think we will see 2200 or even 3200 over the next year in the pair. if the monthly chart closes under 1100 all bets are off at that point. we shall see.
  • #6
  • Apr 17, 2006 2:03pm Apr 17, 2006 2:03pm
Looking at the daily chart, a sidways channel has formed below 1.1750, with a few false breakouts up to 1.18. I'd look to go long above 1.18 for a long term trade. Lot's of resistance at 1.1750 so I'd wait for that to break before going long.
  • #7
  • Apr 17, 2006 2:13pm Apr 17, 2006 2:13pm
Quoting videoj
Looking at the daily chart, a sidways channel has formed below 1.1750, with a few false breakouts up to 1.18. I'd look to go long above 1.18 for a long term trade. Lot's of resistance at 1.1750 so I'd wait for that to break before going long.
i see it the same way vj. when i see any market testing twenty year highs/lows i get excited. with the currency futures i can play options which totally defines my risk. some of the best trades i have ever taken were when price reached these levels. sugar is the first one that comes to mind.
  • #8
  • Apr 18, 2006 6:17am Apr 18, 2006 6:17am
Thanks for all your advices and comments.

With this trade I try to catch the rebound after this long moove.

I am ready for reinforcement if necessary. I never saw a so long continuing moove. So a rebound should happen at a certain moment.

-26 pips leverage 5 for the moment. Not a good start for sure. We will see.
  • #9
  • Apr 18, 2006 12:13pm Apr 18, 2006 12:13pm
Quoting pablo88
I never saw a so long continuing moove. So a rebound should happen at a certain moment.
There is no such a thing as "should" in the markets. This thing could continue going down for days/weeks and you'd lose you shirt trying to pick the bottom. I deeply advice you to change your way of trading.
  • #10
  • Apr 18, 2006 2:49pm Apr 18, 2006 2:49pm
I would love to see double bottom and then reversal to initiate long pos.


I was stopped at BE on my latest trade
kiss the trend
  • #11
  • Apr 18, 2006 2:50pm Apr 18, 2006 2:50pm
the trend is your friend... i'm short from 1.1425....

where to next? who knows.

when Im trading retracements, i'd like to await confirmation that its going to reverse .. rather than anticipate the reversal.

just my 2 cents.

got burnt too often on picking tops/bottoms. even if they are long overdue.
Trade what you see, not what you believe.....
  • #12
  • Apr 18, 2006 11:50pm Apr 18, 2006 11:50pm
i buy again usd/cad at 1.1402 leverage 7

average buy 1.1430 (leverage total 12 )
  • #13
  • Apr 24, 2006 6:16pm Apr 24, 2006 6:16pm
See Pablo? dont try to predict tops and bottoms. Trading is about "re-action" as opossed to "prediction".
  • #14
  • Apr 24, 2006 6:29pm Apr 24, 2006 6:29pm
That's for sure. There is no reason to be on this trade right now. Wait for it to show you what it is actually gonna do and then get in. You might lose a couple pips because you were not in exactly when the move starts but, at least you do not lose a bunch if it does what you " think " it is gonna do. Like the saying goes, "a pip saved, is a pip earned". Patience is a virtue
JOHN 3:16
  • #15
  • Apr 25, 2006 5:55am Apr 25, 2006 5:55am
Hi

It s ok for the moment.

Nothing scaring.

I have leverage in reserve if the move continue.
  • #16
  • Apr 25, 2006 10:01am Apr 25, 2006 10:01am
Hi pablo,
Our Pattern Recognition Method is indicating medium probability of a downward movement. And there are no fundamental changes that could support US$. The first target is 1.13, the second is 1.12
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  • #17
  • Edited 1:57am Apr 26, 2006 1:51am | Edited 1:57am
ok, then i will try to reinforce lower


(avg buy 1.1430, leverage 12)
  • #18
  • Apr 26, 2006 10:24am Apr 26, 2006 10:24am
Beware, the USD/CAD just keeps sliding and makes new multi-year lows...I can see that you are insisting on your long position...My friend, don't fight the major big trend, you will end up deeply hurt...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #19
  • Apr 26, 2006 10:28am Apr 26, 2006 10:28am
US Rate Hikes slowing ? ? ?.
Canada just raised another 25 basis and more to come.

=CAUTION to Bulls
  • #20
  • Apr 26, 2006 10:34am Apr 26, 2006 10:34am
Quoting narafa
Beware, the USD/CAD just keeps sliding and makes new multi-year lows...I can see that you are insisting on your long position...My friend, don't fight the major big trend, you will end up deeply hurt...


Thanks,

Nader

my good friend narafa may well be right. having the futures put options that dont expire until december is a comforting thought and i still think by then its going to look much different.

here is an outlook i agree with.

The Canuck Buck is currently trading just beneath it?s 20 year high of 8906 set back in 1991. Although the reason for this irrational exuberance is valid, Canada is rich in natural resources, we doubt that that information is new and the market is overbought with the currency being overvalued all things being considered.
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