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  • #36,861
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:47am Dec 2, 2011 1:47am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I seriously cannot deny what my charts are telling me, (This weeks rally is a big con).

1st CHART: My big picture weekly chart clearly shows 3 things.

A) 2 weekly MACD bearish divergences. (actually that's 2 things right there, but I will press on)

B) A sharply down turned MONTHKY macd (red and blue lines at bottom of chart).

c) My target,the 61.8 retrace (and strong support) at 0.9226.


2nd CHART: Daily chart trendlines in confluence with the 61.8 retrace (remember this is against a strong downturned monthly MACD - a sell signal right...
Interpretation from bull's eye :The daily looks like forming reverse H&S ..and weekly could also consider in a move up from 0.938 latest low (wave 2)..also the trend line from 0.6 seems not really broken yet ..Just my 2 cents..
  • #36,862
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:04am Dec 2, 2011 2:04am
Quoting andri66
Interpretation from bull's eye :The daily looks like forming reverse H&S ..and weekly could also consider in a move up from 0.938 latest low (wave 2)..also the trend line from 0.6 seems not really broken yet ..Just my 2 cents..
The eternal battle eh...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,863
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:13am Dec 2, 2011 2:13am
Interesting Junction.
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  • #36,864
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:18am Dec 2, 2011 2:18am
That intervention change everything actually. I was happy with my bearish sentiment and even though the price went up, i keep on looking at a good price to short it and got burned in the end.

At the end of the day, i do not want to know why it happened, all i know is to look at the chart and if the trend is showing me to change direction, i will do so.

For now it is NFP day and anything can happen. I just have to be flexible in my trading and be on the sideline and let the big boys decide where they want this to go. Based on whatever news that comes out of US yesterday, price just do not want to go down it seems as people have decided that all is well now and US dollar is no safe haven and we can put our money elsewhere other than the US.

Well, today we shall wait and see.
  • #36,865
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:21am Dec 2, 2011 2:21am
Looking at this monthly, I think it will probably kiss back to the lowest blue trend line before continuing higher. And has been said in previous posts, it may be convenient to have news break to get it low enough....of course it has a month to play out and the Holidays and the Economy aren't going to help any.....gonna be choppy is my guess. Stick to scalping unless you don't risk much and can take big spikes in either direction.
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  • #36,866
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:26am Dec 2, 2011 2:26am
Quoting Muhd Taufik
That intervention change everything actually. I was happy with my bearish sentiment and even though the price went up, i keep on looking at a good price to short it and got burned in the end.

At the end of the day, i do not want to know why it happened, all i know is to look at the chart and if the trend is showing me to change direction, i will do so.

For now it is NFP day and anything can happen. I just have to be flexible in my trading and be on the sideline and let the big boys decide where they want this to go. Based on whatever news that...
Very sensible. I will trade the trendlines, they rarely deceive us.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,867
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:28am Dec 2, 2011 2:28am
Just watch bloomberg & Italy 10 year bond only 6.5%..might be the risk aversion is off at the moment..so my bet all majors will be up against U$D today.. just a bet ..so still 50% wrong..
  • #36,868
  • Edited 3:39am Dec 2, 2011 2:42am | Edited 3:39am
This whole saga reminds me of this story:

"Dutch legend has it that there was once a small boy who upon passing a dyke on his way to school noticed a slight leak as the sea trickled in through a small hole. Knowing that he would be in trouble if he were to be late for school, the boy pocked his finger into the hole and so stemmed the flow of water. Some time later a passerby saw him and went to get help. This came in the form of other men who were able to effect repairs on the dyke and seal up the leak.
This story is told to children to teach them that if they act quickly and in time, even they with their limited strength and resources can avert disasters. The fact that the Little Dutch Boy used his finger to stop the flow of water, is used as an illustration of self-sacrifice. The physical lesson is also taught: a small trickle of water soon becomes a stream and the stream a torrent and the torrent a flood sweeping all before it, Dyke material, roadways and cars, and even railway tracks and bridges and whole trains.

So I guess for me personally, I got the middle finger this week that got a hole in my pocket haha...

For how long they want to cover up the mess before the flood happens only god knows.
  • #36,869
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:27am Dec 2, 2011 4:27am
i like going short at these levels for longer term targets down around 95.

Equities putting in a bear market rally to get all the bulls excited.....last chance to go short at good risk reward levels
  • #36,870
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:53am Dec 2, 2011 4:53am
I have said this last week and would like to repeat:

A better than expected NFP (by at least 30K) will move AUDUSD upward.
A lower than expected NFP (by at least 30K) will move AUDUSD downward.

However, I do not expect this move to be "permanent" unless it is really that big (ie, more than 80K difference). We should also consider other factors than can thwart the move such as other MORE devastating (or encouraging) news.

Personally, RISK ON.

Be careful too, NFP may print lower than expected, but the devil is in the detail. NFP do not count Part-Time employments, ADP does. So once some wiseguy re-iterates huge Part-Time, AUDUSD will RALLY!

FYI. Before the 2008 financial crisis, BAD US news means bad for USD. However after 2008, BAD NEWS means sell Risk Currencies (AUD, NZD, EUR). Some folks are still living in the old news trading ages..
  • #36,871
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:35am Dec 2, 2011 7:35am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
short @ 323
  • #36,872
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:38am Dec 2, 2011 7:38am
Let it drop below 1.0200..then i'll long again..
  • #36,873
  • Dec 2, 2011 10:43am Dec 2, 2011 10:43am
NFP over. Not the fireworks that I have hoped for but basically this week it is all about buying the rumour and sell the fact I guess.

Bulls have run out of steam I supposed. Would have thought we can bring it another week but they have run so fast till they are running in circles now i supposed haha...

Sidelined till all the dust has settled and the price is nicely sitting just below the 68.1 fib line on my daily chart. Pending NY to close and will enter on a Monday instead. Hope the pin bar will nicely turn bearish. The gap is yet to close though.

It's weekend yet again and hope you guys made a lot of pips this week. Spend the time with your love ones and put trading aside. There are better things in life than trading. Market opens on Monday so see u then ... Good night here in Singapore!
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  • #36,874
  • Dec 2, 2011 11:11am Dec 2, 2011 11:11am
Quoting Muhd Taufik
NFP over. Not the fireworks that I have hoped for but basically this week it is all about buying the rumour and sell the fact I guess.

Bulls have run out of steam I supposed. Would have thought we can bring it another week but they have run so fast till they are running in circles now i supposed haha...

Sidelined till all the dust has settled and the price is nicely sitting just below the 68.1 fib line on my daily chart. Pending NY to close and will enter on a Monday instead. Hope the pin bar will nicely turn bearish. The gap is yet to close...
I would suggest holding USD over the wknd. something of low interest..

Also look at GBP/AUD it looks interesting....But this pair is like crack at all hours of the day..even after the NY session. So it aint for the weak. But I like it for a bull case...if we get confirmation.

Dont forget the RBA is next week. The rumour is expected to cut again. If they cut..well....you know what happens. Here is why I think they will.....no resolve now with the euro crap..since capital hill says now way. Also there is a break for a month before RBA comes out again. They are gonna play it safe and cut I think... just my opinion.
  • #36,875
  • Dec 2, 2011 12:15pm Dec 2, 2011 12:15pm
That was a fizzle, got 5 pips for my time.. Will wait for a TL break and see where we stand Monday. Off to work now, have a great weekend guys.
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  • #36,876
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:48pm Dec 2, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting Muhd Taufik
NFP over. Not the fireworks that I have hoped for but basically this week it is all about buying the rumour and sell the fact I guess.

Bulls have run out of steam I supposed. Would have thought we can bring it another week but they have run so fast till they are running in circles now i supposed haha...

Sidelined till all the dust has settled and the price is nicely sitting just below the 68.1 fib line on my daily chart. Pending NY to close and will enter on a Monday instead. Hope the pin bar will nicely turn bearish. The gap is yet to close...
Very nice
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,877
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:58pm Dec 2, 2011 1:58pm
Holding a sell over the weekend in hope of a gap down. Word on the street over here is RBA is very likely to be cutting rates again. Retail figures are very poor and housing figures actually much worse, so might as well make some money while we suffer. GU is also leading the way, breaking below the 4 hr 200 ema despite slightly favorable figures. Seems risk off at the moment.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,878
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:47pm Dec 2, 2011 2:47pm
my 0.01 lot long EUR/AUD is still hold and 4H downward trend line is still valid.. will see if there is any power to break it next week.
have a good weekend everyone.
  • #36,879
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:18pm Dec 2, 2011 4:18pm
http://chart.ly/3aom9dw
I;d be cautious on gong Long. Big players are shorts
  • #36,880
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:32pm Dec 2, 2011 4:32pm
Shifting into another down trend...

I really feel we see a bull rally at least to 1.0350... AT LEAST.... She may dip before that.... but I feel she has to hit that level before shifting down to the trend that will take us to .93....

Prediction: Hopium all next week as empty promises look promising for Euro plans going into the meeting.... (Monday Proposals)

I bet they will even seem to have a resolute consenesus to fix the problem in Europe completely....

Then the realization... that 17 countries have to get on the same page.... and although they may recover.... its not happening anytime soon...

Maybe even rumors of a "print" ....

Now as far as the RBA.... they said they were holding off on cutting rates until first Q 2012...

I dont feel they are going to break that promise... first Q 2012 is nearly a month away.... Christmas is coming... I dont see them having the need to really bolster the economy in a season that is traditionally known for doing that on its own - at least as far as the retail sector is concerned....

Now.... Where to buy is the real question....

I like 1.02..... 1.0150 is current support.... (I just wonder if its going to hit that level)

Any insights on a nice buy target for a long to 1.0350+?
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