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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #1,761
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:43am Dec 1, 2011 7:43am
Quoting dazzdude
and this is how it looks on a 5min chart

make sense?

dazz
Thanks, i see what you're saying about the level, but is this alone enough for you to take the trade or do you need more factors?
  • #1,762
  • Edited 8:12am Dec 1, 2011 7:55am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting mpat89
The level is giving over 50 pips profit atm, not bad. When you say something else to back the entry, what factors would you count as valid confluence? Any charts that you're watching that you're waiting for entry on? Maybe you could explain the factors that you see to give you what you need to 'back' the entry, would be much appreciated! It would be cool to get an example of what factors are enough when present together.
Great qu

First off, if the setup looks really good, I may not need any confirmation. Roll the dice, see what happens.

If it looks good, but not really good, I look for confirmation. Cause it stops me over trading (a really bad habit I have had to break)

It could be anything you are comfortable with.

For me, the first thing I would look for in this instance is a trend line, and I like to line it up with a pattern (e.g. channel, flag, wedge, etc) if possible (not mandatory). I will use different time frames to do this as well. Anywhere from Dailly to 1m.

If I find nothing satisfactory, i could use a swag of other things. However, I have been "dropping/removing" things from my analysis over time, not adding. How strange is that!

For example, if no trend line, I could look at fib levels, projections, bounce off moving averages, etc, etc. However, if you look long enough and hard enough, you will eventually find something and that's the problem. You are "making it up".

So, if I cannot find a TL, I look for some basic patterns. If that presents nothing, I may look for something like a pin bar of the level (raw candles). I just keep it simple now.

Here is an example for the potential trade you pointed out (and looking at the level 20 pips below - the level I pointed out)

Note: I am not saying this is what you should do (in the pic below), I am only giving an example.

hope that helps

EDIT: Not suggesting looking at 1min bars, cause they often lie! I was just looking for an example on that chart I could use.

dazz.
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  • #1,763
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:08am Dec 1, 2011 8:08am
Quoting mpat89
Thanks, i see what you're saying about the level, but is this alone enough for you to take the trade or do you need more factors?
well, I missed that trade cause my kids were watching a horror movie and wanted me to watch it with them, so I did.

I think so, it was pretty clean and was with my main bias. if you see my post from a day or two back, I predicted a possbile reversal on the aussie (which turned out) and my bias changed to looking for longs. you will see the charts.

the only thing that made me nervous is that it was below the daily open (I consider the daily open in the 24 market at 6am london).

dazz
  • #1,764
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:52am Dec 1, 2011 8:52am
Quoting dazzdude
Great qu

First off, if the setup looks really good, I may not need any confirmation. Roll the dice, see what happens.

If it looks good, but not really good, I look for confirmation. Cause it stops me over trading (a really bad habit I have had to break)

It could be anything you are comfortable with.

For me, the first thing I would look for in this instance is a trend line, and I like to line it up with a pattern (e.g. channel, flag, wedge, etc) if possible (not mandatory). I will use different time frames to do this as well....
Thanks dazz, think I see what you mean. So for trades without a tonne of confluence, we can use our discretion by identifying reversal patterns for additional confirmation before entry (such as the pinbar you pointed out). On something like that GU trade, I assume you would have entered at market on the close of the 1 minute pinbar? How big would your stop have been?
  • #1,765
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:55pm Dec 1, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting mpat89
Thanks dazz, think I see what you mean. So for trades without a tonne of confluence, we can use our discretion by identifying reversal patterns for additional confirmation before entry (such as the pinbar you pointed out). On something like that GU trade, I assume you would have entered at market on the close of the 1 minute pinbar? How big would your stop have been?
When I place a trade, I look for a place to put a stop using PA. This is usually based on a TL or S/R level and preferably both. They is no "hard and fast rule". I try and reminan flexible. Howerver, if I cannot find one that looks good, no trade.

In this instance, the red upward sloping TL would be my "method" of defining where to place my stop. I would be thinking, if price breaches this level, then I was wrong.

However, this is not a regular TL, is a S/R trendline. The first point is R and the second point us S.

Once I have that TL, I would be looking for a supporting horizontal S/R. Like you can use confluence to define an entry, you can you use confluence to define a stop.

The chart shows (the blue circle) there I would be looking at. Stop is placed below this by a few pips.

However, there is another benefit of using that red TL. With each bar that passes, the line is getting higher. If want to trail my stop using this line, it means I have a sound technical reason to trail my stop up and therefore with time, I can either tighten my stop OR, be warned earlier that I could get stopped out.

However, I would most likely prefer to move my stop and the interestion of that TL line and something else, most likely a higher horizontal S/R level.

I will post another chart on this concept next trade.

dazz
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  • #1,766
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:08pm Dec 1, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting dazzdude
I will post another chart on this concept next trade.

dazz
example shows why, when and to where I could move my stop up, if I chose to do so.

Whether you place a stop 5 pips, 10 pips, 15 pips, etc below the level is up to you, what I am showing you is my "thinking".

if u have other qus, feel free to ask,

dazz
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  • #1,767
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:03pm Dec 1, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting dazzdude
This is a fantastic qu and one that will take a few words to reply to.

1. Lets start with the concept of "a turn in price is caused by an imbalance of buy and sell orders".
....
Thanks again dazz for answering my question. It makes perfect sense and it helps asking the question were there enough sell orders on that level.

In this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post5184724 example there were enough sell orders at level 1 to take out the previous low. This in turn then caused demand to dry up at the next two levels up (when price returned).

The trick is to know this in advance that level 1 will hold. Reading through this thread I have learned to also look for confluence to come up with the probabilities which level is most likely to hold.

And if you miss one - there is always another (better) one around the corner .

Thomas
  • #1,768
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:11pm Dec 1, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting hometrading
Thanks again dazz for answering my question. Thomas
Its a pleasure Thomas.

The most powerful force behind rapid learning is the ability to ask intelligent questions.

dazz
  • #1,769
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:30am Dec 2, 2011 1:30am
cad

keep it simple

dazz
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  • #1,770
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:37am Dec 2, 2011 1:37am
cad on 1hr

dazz
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  • #1,771
  • Dec 2, 2011 1:43am Dec 2, 2011 1:43am
kiwi... on your marks, get set .....

dazz
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  • #1,772
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:46am Dec 2, 2011 4:46am
Quoting dazzdude
kiwi... on your marks, get set .....

dazz
Hi dazz, got to admit, it looks bullish, but this is the trend line I was looking at. Suppose it will depend on what the NFP says later.

30 min chart
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  • #1,773
  • Dec 2, 2011 6:13am Dec 2, 2011 6:13am
Quoting dazzdude
cad on 1hr

dazz
awesome call!
  • #1,774
  • Dec 2, 2011 6:18am Dec 2, 2011 6:18am
Quoting Pat Mustard
Hi dazz, got to admit, it looks bullish, but this is the trend line I was looking at. Suppose it will depend on what the NFP says later.

30 min chart
I am not 'assuming' a bullish move. I have a plan for how I would trade north, and a plan for how I would trade south. For each, I expect it to behave in a certain way. If price behaves that way, I may have entry, which could be long or short.


In saying this, I did not see the TL you draw. Your TL is awesome!

I tried to add that line (cause its a ripper!) to my chart, but I cannot. I do not have that first 30min candle you start from due to a different feed. my chart is surprisingly different. Forex sucks a bit like that.

Very nice TL mate!

dazz
  • #1,775
  • Dec 2, 2011 6:21am Dec 2, 2011 6:21am
Quoting mpat89
awesome call!
thank you sir.... called to the very pip

dazz
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  • #1,776
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:09am Dec 2, 2011 7:09am
Quoting dazzdude
example shows why, when and to where I could move my stop up, if I chose to do so.

Whether you place a stop 5 pips, 10 pips, 15 pips, etc below the level is up to you, what I am showing you is my "thinking".

if u have other qus, feel free to ask,

dazz
I thought it would follow up on post 1766. Because its interesting to see how well that TL held price.

dazz
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  • #1,777
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:15am Dec 2, 2011 7:15am
Quoting dazzdude
possible change on trend of aud?
thought I would follow up post 1700, for learning purposes (to spot a potential reversal)

dazz
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  • #1,778
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:27am Dec 2, 2011 7:27am
Quoting dazzdude
current trend down, yes

on another note.... i am keeping the seasonal influence of the cable in mind as per post

this is not a forcast.... only a possible option that I am aware could play out and if it does, I will capitalise accordingly.... and if it does not, then that's OK to.

however, fortune favours the prepared

dazz
thought it would be interesting to also take a follow up look at cable from this post as well. we are all learning together. Price basically followed the path I laid out for cable.
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  • #1,779
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:40am Dec 2, 2011 7:40am
Quoting dazzdude
thank you sir.... called to the very pip

dazz
That is the definition of deadly accuracy - tip of the hat to you Mr dazz
  • #1,780
  • Dec 2, 2011 7:48am Dec 2, 2011 7:48am
candles
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