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Caution: Math Geek at Work

  • #541
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:06pm Oct 5, 2011 11:06pm
Quoting capitalist88
September was just a disaster. A disaster!

I didn't have strict position size limits in place to control risk, so I ended up on the wrong side of a martingale type equity meltdown. The controls are in place now, and I maintain the total account position to a value between 4 and 8 times equity. Too late to prevent a 63% loss on equity though. Time to start clawing my way back up....


Attachment
I like how you book your earnings/loss(tjhe set up wise), butsuredoesnt look good with your trades.
May you send me an xl file of the layout please?
  • #542
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:04am Oct 6, 2011 1:04am
Quoting capitalist88
September was just a disaster. A disaster!

I didn't have strict position size limits in place to control risk, so I ended up on the wrong side of a martingale type equity meltdown. The controls are in place now, and I maintain the total account position to a value between 4 and 8 times equity. Too late to prevent a 63% loss on equity though. Time to start clawing my way back up....


Attachment
Hey man, I would just like to take this opportunity to say thanks again for sharing your method, experiences and taking the time to update your website. It sure was an abysmal month of September, but it was for all of us who have a carry trade account so you're not alone my friend. The good thing is we are still getting interest (yippee!) and you improved your strategy by revising the rules on order sizing. Sometimes a rough stretch is good in the long run because it makes things better for the rest of the journey. A journey that will someday make it worthier than it already is. Take care and keep pipping up!
  • #543
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:21pm Oct 6, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting PipPipPip
I like how you book your earnings/loss(tjhe set up wise), butsuredoesnt look good with your trades.
May you send me an xl file of the layout please?
Do you mean the parts of the spreadsheet that calculate the order sizes?
  • #544
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:29pm Oct 6, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hey man, I would just like to take this opportunity to say thanks again for sharing your method, experiences and taking the time to update your website. It sure was an abysmal month of September, but it was for all of us who have a carry trade account so you're not alone my friend. The good thing is we are still getting interest (yippee!) and you improved your strategy by revising the rules on order sizing. Sometimes a rough stretch is good in the long run because it makes things better for the rest of the journey. A journey that will someday make...
Thanks! I'm thinking that long term all the eurozone angst will work in our favor for a couple of reasons.

1. If the EU has to break apart (so individual countries can monetize their debt) then that eliminates the possibility that higher yielding developing currencies like the TRY and HUF will be absorbed into the lower yielding Euro.

2. As the dollar soars during all the panic in these early years of my plan it presents a long drawn out buying/accumulation opportunity for the developing currencies as well as a distribution period for the USD. If I had had rational risk control in place, I'd be taking better advantage of that now.

3. Eventually the U.S. must monetize its debt. There's no other way to avoid default without a major political/economic revolution which I don't expect. So I expect the decades-long decline in the dollar to continue after things settle down.
  • #545
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:16am Nov 10, 2011 5:16am
Hi Capitalist88,

I've seen that your account has taken a beating.
I just thought I'd come here just to give you some support, because I know you will succeed.
You are very organized, have an analytical mind and you are disciplined.
In my book that's all it takes to be successful at trading.
So, press on and don't stop for anything.
I'll be dropping by from time to time.

To new equity highs!
  • #546
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:40pm Nov 10, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting marx85
Hi Capitalist88,

I've seen that your account has taken a beating.
I just thought I'd come here just to give you some support, because I know you will succeed.
You are very organized, have an analytical mind and you are disciplined.
In my book that's all it takes to be successful at trading.
So, press on and don't stop for anything.
I'll be dropping by from time to time.

To new equity highs!


Thank you!

Fortunately it's early in the plan, and I corrected the mistake I made in not establishing position size limits.
  • #547
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:50am Nov 23, 2011 1:50am
Hi,

I think that the crisis is far from over.

If you look at the US dollar index chart, the resistance level is around 86.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sy...&txtDate=#jump

If history were to repeat itself, I guess that it will be most appropriate time to add and increase position for the "ideal carry trade".

I am still waiting for that moment to happen again = )

Regards,
Judy
  • #548
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:04pm Nov 23, 2011 12:04pm
Hi Judy,

My mechanical system seems to agree. I'm carrying less than 40% of my projected position size right now.
  • #549
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:43pm Nov 30, 2011 8:43pm
annndd, the survey SAYS.... down 22% on Equity. Bleh.


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  • #550
  • Edited Dec 1, 2011 12:16am Nov 30, 2011 11:27pm | Edited Dec 1, 2011 12:16am
Kind of frustrated as an Oanda customer in that my carry trade account does not see an increase in interest payout despite rate increases by central banks. Seems unfair and also seems like blatant and unscrupulous br0ker action. The most recent interest rate increase was on the Hungarian Forint from 6.0% to 6.5%. Prior to that it was the Turkish Lira. Funny thing about it was the br0ker changed the spread in a way where the payout remained unchanged, but interest charged on sell positions increased. Equally frustrating is Oanda's inability to answer any questions with regards to this. This is what they had to say when I contacted them via live chat...

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #551
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:35pm Dec 1, 2011 7:35pm
Nice, I responded to your post over at the Oanda thread. Oanda reps have been on that thread before, so let's see what they have to say now.
  • #552
  • Jan 2, 2012 9:08pm Jan 2, 2012 9:08pm
Well that's 2011 in the bag. Don't need another year like that one. ROE for December was -35%, so it's only the deposit and the interest keeping the equity afloat.

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  • #553
  • Jan 13, 2012 4:48pm Jan 13, 2012 4:48pm
Hi,

I only started to notice the EUR/AUD pairs recently. Perhaps you should look at it seriously. Why?

1. Euro Crisis is still far from over to resolve it. It is a downtrend since '08. Looking in the months ahead, what is the direction that it will goes? Í guess that you should have the answer.

2. It is a good Carry Trade pair. As mentioned before, if you follow pipeasy's methodology, which is to set your position to B.E. when it is in safe territory, the ROI returns on the margins is more than 100%.

I am fully focusing my attention on the EUR/AUD pair. If everything works well, I would be able to gain financial freedom. Hope it works for you too ^_^

Regards,
Judy
  • #554
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:02pm Feb 1, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting ultrameg
Hi,

I only started to notice the EUR/AUD pairs recently. Perhaps you should look at it seriously. Why?

1. Euro Crisis is still far from over to resolve it. It is a downtrend since '08. Looking in the months ahead, what is the direction that it will goes? Í guess that you should have the answer.

2. It is a good Carry Trade pair. As mentioned before, if you follow pipeasy's methodology, which is to set your position to B.E. when it is in safe territory, the ROI returns on the margins is more than 100%.

I am fully focusing my attention...

Hi Judy,

One of the things I don't want to do is be short some currency other than my home currency (USD). The reason is that if the other currency starts appreciating like crazy, I have to pay off my short with more dollars. By always using the dollar as my funding currency, I never have to worry about my liability to the broker rising in value vs. the dollar, because it IS the dollar. My liability always stays constant and under control.
  • #555
  • Feb 1, 2012 8:11pm Feb 1, 2012 8:11pm
January results are in. 63% ROE!


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan2012.GIF Size: 27 KB
  • #556
  • Feb 2, 2012 1:27am Feb 2, 2012 1:27am
Quoting capitalist88
January results are in. 63% ROE!


Attachment
You have change something to do 63% ?!
  • #557
  • Feb 2, 2012 1:09pm Feb 2, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting surfeur
You have change something to do 63% ?!
I didn't really do anything different, I just waited for the market. The dollar's been dropping for a few weeks now against my longs. It's all open equity though; not booked. So it could reverse at any time.
  • #558
  • Feb 4, 2012 6:40pm Feb 4, 2012 6:40pm
Quoting capitalist88
Hi Judy,

One of the things I don't want to do is be short some currency other than my home currency (USD). The reason is that if the other currency starts appreciating like crazy, I have to pay off my short with more dollars. By always using the dollar as my funding currency, I never have to worry about my liability to the broker rising in value vs. the dollar, because it IS the dollar. My liability always stays constant and under control.
Hi, Scott.

I think that I somehow get your idea, but no exactly.

In fact, I also have an US$ account. Currently, shorting EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. I am getting paid in AUD, which exchange back to USD. Putting in another way, I be getting more US dollar from a stronger AUSSIE dollar.

Regards,
Judy
  • #559
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:05pm Feb 6, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting ultrameg
Hi, Scott.

I think that I somehow get your idea, but no exactly.

In fact, I also have an US$ account. Currently, shorting EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. I am getting paid in AUD, which exchange back to USD. Putting in another way, I be getting more US dollar from a stronger AUSSIE dollar.

Regards,
Judy
If the EUR and GBP both rise against the AUD and USD, it's a double whammy. You would have to pay for any margin call with many more (cheaper) USD, and you may not have them. Even if the EUR/AUD goes down, if the EUR/USD doubles or triples in some black swan event, you are stuck owing much more money to your broker than you thought.

That's what seems to be happening in Hungary. They took out a bunch of loans in Swiss Francs, and now they have to pay those loans back in much more expensive Francs because CHF/HUF went through the roof.
  • #560
  • Feb 22, 2012 5:14am Feb 22, 2012 5:14am
Compared to a couple months ago, my carry trade account looks like a completely different account
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