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  • #36,821
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:33am Dec 1, 2011 4:33am
Also note, that whene we turned north from 0966, there was no 4 hr bullish MACD divergence, only a medium strength one on the 1 hr chart. This tells me we have further to fall. Interest rate cut expected next week. may be all the excuse needed for a quick reversal again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmmmmmmmmm11.gif Size: 18 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,822
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:35am Dec 1, 2011 4:35am
Quoting Ill-b-back
If any Aussies in Sydney want a massage, send me a PM, $100/hour, I'll come to your home
I only have "happy ending" massages
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #36,823
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:47am Dec 1, 2011 4:47am
Can't help it, I'm short again targetting 1.0105 just above the 61.8 retrace and the 4 hr 200ema retest. Feel very comfortable with this for a number of reasons.
1. We are coming off the weekly 61.8 retrace and trendline junction.
2. (See 2nd graph) Monthly MACD is down, and we have just completed a 61.8 retrace against the down turned MONTHLY MACD. A good sign we are due to come back down, and may do it hard.
3. No 4 hourly bullish divergence mentioned earlier.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: hmmmmmmmmm12.gif Size: 16 KB
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  • #36,824
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:48am Dec 1, 2011 4:48am
Needless to say, if and when we get a break of the lower 4 hr trendline, I will be shorting again very hard for new lows.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,825
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:49am Dec 1, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Erebus
I only have "happy ending" massages
That will be extra then honey
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,826
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:02am Dec 1, 2011 5:02am
Quoting benjamf13
What are your thoughts that if that is broken, then the next support could be the 200EMA 1H at around the 0.9975 marker (obviously would move higher as time goes by)
Not going brilliant on this short trade from 1.0183 at the moment... my stop is at 1.0256, so im still in, but it's beginning to hurt...
if we get the retrace back to 1.0080 and that breaks I will target 0.9800 as next target. (0.9800 beeing top of 4h decending channel) sorry, can't post picture of chart from here...

Good luck mate
Expect the unexpected.
  • #36,827
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:03am Dec 1, 2011 5:03am
Quoting Ill-b-back
That will be extra then honey
Expect the unexpected.
  • #36,828
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:14am Dec 1, 2011 5:14am
Here are my trendlines. Shorts in the black. SL above yesterdays high. 1st target 1.01050, second one left to run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36,829
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:21am Dec 1, 2011 5:21am
Sorry, here is the monthly MACD reading heading sharply lower.
From that weekly MACD divergence and sharp monthly downturn, I think we are headed much lower. This rally will fizzle I feel as things really are not going well anywhere in the world. The big picture, tells he true picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36,830
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:24am Dec 1, 2011 5:24am
I thought the 4h candle looks bullish with the failure to break the 5ema on my system. I could be very very wrong but I will be buying at 1.02
  • #36,831
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:42am Dec 1, 2011 5:42am
Quoting perrier
I thought the 4h candle looks bullish with the failure to break the 5ema on my system. I could be very very wrong but I will be buying at 1.02
Yes, a bullish candle on flash news, but nearly everything tells me it is a false rally. at weekly 61.8 retrace against a sharply turned down monthly MACD (BIG SELL OPPORTUNITY) trendlines, MACD'S, weekly and monthly bearish macd divergence, rumours of things in Europe unravelling as we speak (I never believe the news, just the market affect it has). That flash rally prob took out some short stops also.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,832
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:58am Dec 1, 2011 5:58am
Off to bed, so have closed both shorts for 20 pips. Will wait for a break of 4 hr trend line before shorting. Hold those pips, don't let 1 escape.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,833
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:35am Dec 1, 2011 6:35am
Quoting andri66
With the swap rate..much more fun to long at dip..if chinese PMI worse than expected then it might drop around 1.015 for a better long position..just my 2 cents
Result in almost +100 pips..not sure whether it'll continue north or sideways..prefer to see after nfp tomorrow..
  • #36,834
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:33am Dec 1, 2011 8:33am
I could not make out of the market lately. So darn wierd moves I'm staying out till next week.

I am sure you are making pips.
  • #36,835
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:43am Dec 1, 2011 8:43am
Quoting western
We'll see.....I'll quote your statement....come back around wed/thurs and see if your correct....i'll even go as far as to say hold onto after the NFP and wait until after the wknd maybe monday or so if it is really bad. If you are...I will give you credit. If your not...well maybe throw me a vouch?
SO? Do I get a vouch? up some 500 pips since I first mentioned a long last friday on the aud/usd. I took profit today before NFP...it could go higher..but 500 pips is good enough for me.
  • #36,836
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:44am Dec 1, 2011 8:44am
Quoting western
I have been buying aud/usd and will continue to do so...right up until all next week. You want to buy a rumour? Rumour has it next weeks nfp report is going to be real BAD! so buy now, and sell before the fact. Thats almost a full week of collecting the interest off the aud, and riding the rumour all the way to the top before the fact comes out. Thats my strategy.....
Here is my original post from last friday....
  • #36,837
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:59am Dec 1, 2011 8:59am
It has been a bull week this week. The signs are there when market open with a 100+ pips upwards and most got burned when they thought it was just temporary and the gap will close on the day or so, well I am one of them actually that got burned!

Congrats to those who went long and by the look of it, 200 - 300 pips on average are a norm this week.

As always, follow the trend till it bends cause I think with the coordinated intervention yesterday, they would not want the price to go down that easily yet. Still in ranging mode up till NFP i suppose where we can see a nice break upwards. Happy trading all!
  • #36,838
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:15pm Dec 1, 2011 3:15pm
Like sands through the hour glass, so are the days of our trades
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,839
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:28pm Dec 1, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Like sands through the hour glass, so are the days of our trades
I must agree. Only made two scalps in the last six hours.... one for 14 and one for 20. Waiting for confirmed break.
  • #36,840
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:37pm Dec 1, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting Riskit
I must agree. Only made two scalps in the last six hours.... one for 14 and one for 20. Waiting for confirmed break.
I've been looking back over my posts to get a perspective, and I must stop drinking coffee. Jumbled, decision, counter decision, I was even posting old incorrect trendline screens I hadn't deleted, it seemed endless. I really don't think we can go much higher though, trendlines will tell I suppose.
Come with me if you want to live....
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