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AUD/USD

  • #36,781
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:06pm Nov 30, 2011 8:06pm
Might see a big HotDog/London drop
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  • #36,782
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:17pm Nov 30, 2011 8:17pm
if it can break 0230 i think it could go 0280 very fast

any thoughts?
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  • #36,783
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:19pm Nov 30, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Take a look (15 min, 1hr, 4hr charts). Interesting.
Needless to say, buying 2 lots 1.0960 no SL, will watch price, but should not be a problem with that bull candle leading the way
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  • #36,784
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:20pm Nov 30, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
if it can break 0230 i think it could go 0280 very fast

any thoughts?
See above
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  • #36,785
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:30pm Nov 30, 2011 8:30pm
thanx; looks like it is breaking down; so i took some profit... look to get back in lower
i still think it is going to get to 1.04 before reversing and testing the latest lows.

Quoting Ill-b-back
See above
  • #36,786
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:32pm Nov 30, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
thanx; looks like it is breaking down; so i took some profit... look to get back in lower
i still think it is going to get to 1.04 before reversing and testing the latest lows.
Agreed
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  • #36,787
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:35pm Nov 30, 2011 8:35pm
Hi Ill-b-back,

I've been following your analysis on the AUD/USD and learning how you trade. Its a very effective strategy that you have. Thanks so much for sharing. Btw, you say that you are 2 longs at 1.0960. I just wanted to know if thats a typo error. Did you mean 2 longs, one at 1.000 and one at 0.960? Thanks!
  • #36,788
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:38pm Nov 30, 2011 8:38pm
well, looks like i should have hanged in there; i just closed by trade and it double it pips!

what made the jump?

Quoting Ill-b-back
Agreed
  • #36,789
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:40pm Nov 30, 2011 8:40pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
thanx; looks like it is breaking down; so i took some profit... look to get back in lower
i still think it is going to get to 1.04 before reversing and testing the latest lows.
I like it so much I sold the company (Sold 0218, tp 0140). Just 1 lot as counter trend right now on 4 hr timeframe, And there is nearly always a 50% retrace on big bull candles. I might even buy at the 50% retrace as the 61.8 retrace confluence with the trendline and ema's just looks too far away and I don't think price will get there in time and still respect the lower trendline, but def looks to be breaking down to me. Will consider closing out if 1 hour candle closes above white trendline. Made nearly $8000 yesterday so worth the risk.
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  • #36,790
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:45pm Nov 30, 2011 8:45pm
Couldn't help myself
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  • #36,791
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:46pm Nov 30, 2011 8:46pm
thanx; i am EST : time to go to bed! check it out in the AM

Quoting Ill-b-back
I like it so much I sold the company (Sold 0218, tp 0140). Just 1 lot as counter trend right now on 4 hr timeframe, And there is nearly always a 50% retrace on big bull candles. I might even buy at the 50% retrace as the 61.8 retrace confluence with the trendline and ema's just looks too far away and I don't think price will get there in time and still respect the lower trendline, but def looks to be breaking down to me. Will consider closing out if 1 hour candle closes above white trendline. Made nearly $8000 yesterday so worth the risk.
  • #36,792
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:04pm Nov 30, 2011 9:04pm
Hi Ill-b-back,

I notice that you are using Fib levels for your analysis but your fib levels don't show the price at each level. You could add price by going to "Fibo Properties". Under the "Fibo Levels" tab, you can amend the description for each level to like this "0.0%%@%$", "23.6%%@%$" and so on. Once you have done that, you fibo tool will show 0.0%@1.0033 (or whatever the price is). Hope you find it useful!
  • #36,793
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:09pm Nov 30, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting pipraiser
Hi Ill-b-back,

I've been following your analysis on the AUD/USD and learning how you trade. Its a very effective strategy that you have. Thanks so much for sharing. Btw, you say that you are 2 longs at 1.0960. I just wanted to know if thats a typo error. Did you mean 2 longs, one at 1.000 and one at 0.960? Thanks!
Sorry, my mistake, it is long at 1.00960. I missed a zero, just as well I am trading against the bank and not working for one, or another couple may take off overseas with $10,000,000 of "misplaced" funds
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  • #36,794
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:23pm Nov 30, 2011 9:23pm
Uh oh, might consider bailing on that short as price may have just been retesting the daily 200ema during Asia after closing above it yesterday, then shoot up again off the 38.2 retrace. Will wait to see what London holds. Might consider SL above yesterdays high which will cost me a quarter of yesterdays gains if hit.
Lesson: Always check all timeframes before trading, there are "hidden" traps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmmmmmmmmm11.gif Size: 13 KB
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  • #36,795
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:25pm Nov 30, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Uh oh, might consider bailing on that short as price may have just been retesting the daily 200ema during Asia after closing above it yesterday, then shoot up again off the 38.2 retrace. Will wait to see what London holds. Might consider SL above yesterdays high which will cost me a quarter of yesterdays gains if hit.
Lesson: Always check all timeframes before trading, there are "hidden" traps.
By the way, anyone know why trendlines do that when you change timeframes??? (AKA see "vertical" trendline) in above post.
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  • #36,796
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:32pm Nov 30, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
well, looks like i should have hanged in there; i just closed by trade and it double it pips!

what made the jump?
Sorry, I don't follow?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,797
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:32pm Nov 30, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Uh oh, might consider bailing on that short as price may have just been retesting the daily 200ema during Asia after closing above it yesterday, then shoot up again off the 38.2 retrace. Will wait to see what London holds. Might consider SL above yesterdays high which will cost me a quarter of yesterdays gains if hit.
Lesson: Always check all timeframes before trading, there are "hidden" traps.
mine is the opposite - thats why I'm short to the retrace. My platform is showing resistance on the Daily 200EMA???

whats the go here!?
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  • #36,798
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:36pm Nov 30, 2011 9:36pm
For anyone in this trade, better SL would be a close above 76.4 retrace (above 02941). If 1 hr candle closes above this fib it will usually continue in that direction if wondering.
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  • #36,799
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:46pm Nov 30, 2011 9:46pm
Here's my take on it, you drew your trendlines on the 1hr, 4hr chart for that particular day. 1hr chart = 24 different candles, 4 hr char = 6 different candles. But you have to remember the trendlines that you draw apply to the 24 candles (1hr) and 6 candles (4hr). However, the day candle is just 1 single candle. Thus there can't be a trendline on the single candle. Hence all trend lines drawn on the particular day for whichever timeframe will always show as a vertical line on the day chart. Hope that makes sense! =)
  • #36,800
  • Nov 30, 2011 10:04pm Nov 30, 2011 10:04pm
Hope to get to buy order just above 61.8 retrace WITHIN 4 hours so as to respect the trendline (assuming trendline is correctly drawn).
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