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  • #1,741
  • Edited 6:41am Nov 30, 2011 6:37am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting dazzdude
sry mate, your right, I do not get your qu. The level I think you might be referring to 1.3430? maybe try mark up a chart again so i can see clearly, otherwise I would be guessing.
Dazz,
Much appreciate that you take your time responding to my post. I have attached another version of the chart pointing more clearly to the area in question.

Just looked at your 1h chart again and you could say that the higher timeframe takes precedence over the 15 min tf. Making it less likely to hold.

Cheers
Thomas
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,742
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:59pm Nov 30, 2011 1:59pm
Evening All.

I got out with just losing a few pips on the Aud.Jpy short this morning. Before it shot up like 170 pips in a minute.

You know the way Will talks about bias. Well I'm a bear on Nzd.Usd unless the trendline below breaks. I'm in a small short up against the trendline. I'm nervous, because who knows what is about to happen in these markets.

The chart is 4 hr.
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  • #1,743
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:32pm Nov 30, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting Pat Mustard
Evening All.

I got out with just losing a few pips on the Aud.Jpy short this morning. Before it shot up like 170 pips in a minute.

You know the way Will talks about bias. Well I'm a bear on Nzd.Usd unless the trendline below breaks. I'm in a small short up against the trendline. I'm nervous, because who knows what is about to happen in these markets.

The chart is 4 hr.
I know what you mean mate !

I've been in this game (on and off) for 10 years and I have not heard anyone talk of bias. Being fortunate enough to spend some time with Will, this was the first concept he plastered into my head! It's such a fundamental concept and underpins all his trading. I'm very surprised it’s not more widely discussed. Once you know how to use PA to define bias, and then trade with it (or at least understand you are scalping against it), then your half way to being successful because you are trading with the rhythm of the market, not against it.

The concept of bias should be the first concept taught to any aspiring trader in my opinion. And, of course...... if you cannot define a bias..... you cannot take a trade! (that alone will eliminate a swag of losing trades from anyones account).

dazz
  • #1,744
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:48pm Nov 30, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting hometrading
Dazz,
Much appreciate that you take your time responding to my post. I have attached another version of the chart pointing more clearly to the area in question.

Just looked at your 1h chart again and you could say that the higher timeframe takes precedence over the 15 min tf. Making it less likely to hold.

Cheers
Thomas
Thankyou Thomas, I see what u mean now :-)

1. I see 1.35 more as the last supply zone (sam seiden concept - but Will uses the a similar concept - though he calls them "price clusters" - he made the same discovery by careful price observation before he had heard of Sam - Sam has lots of free webinars online - worth a look).

2. I saw (as it's already been tested) 1.343 as the last untested resistance (but its been tested now)

> Pt 1. I expect that level would be good to short, at least enough get a break even trade (i.e. provide a reaction from the level)

> Pt 2. Worked as expected

Longer term (i.e.) Dec 2011. I expected we may find that 1.32 was the eur Nov low, and Dec to provide a move back up. Just my speculation.

if that still does not answer your question, ask again

dazz
  • #1,745
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:53pm Nov 30, 2011 3:53pm
The level held, shame I was asleep

and came right down to the next level down.
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  • #1,746
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:54pm Nov 30, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting dazzdude
if that still does not answer your question, ask again
Thanks mate
  • #1,747
  • Nov 30, 2011 5:46pm Nov 30, 2011 5:46pm
Hi, just wondering about this level on GBPUSD for an entry on the pullback. This is the BOP and additionally we can see from the line that it is an area of support/resistance. Another thing I like is that last time price was at this area before the BOP it consolidated under it giving quite a few bar highs around this area which look like they could act as support now. comments appreciated!
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  • #1,748
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:05am Dec 1, 2011 1:05am
Quoting mpat89
Hi, just wondering about this level on GBPUSD for an entry on the pullback. This is the BOP and additionally we can see from the line that it is an area of support/resistance. Another thing I like is that last time price was at this area before the BOP it consolidated under it giving quite a few bar highs around this area which look like they could act as support now. comments appreciated!
It could work, I'd be looking for something else to back the entry. It could pullback a little further than that level. lets see what happens.

dazz
  • #1,749
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:40am Dec 1, 2011 2:40am
I am getting a good understanding of the bop method discussed here. Sometimes I find myself presented with several options where resistance (or support) is located. I have attached a chart to illustrate this.

You can see a breakout occuring here, once price pullbacks I am wondering which of the 3 resistance lines has the highest probility for a bounce?

All three have the potential to provide resistance. My novice opinion is number 2).

Also lets say we have a substantial bounce of 1) would you then still consider 2) or 3) to be as strong or does this lessen the probability for a bounce of these levels?

Hope this does not sound too elementary.

Thanks
Thomas
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  • #1,750
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:54am Dec 1, 2011 2:54am
Quoting hometrading
I am getting a good understanding of the bop method discussed here. Sometimes I find myself presented with several options where resistance (or support) is located. I have attached a chart to illustrate this.

You can see a breakout occuring here, once price pullbacks I am wondering which of the 3 resistance lines has the highest probility for a bounce?

All three have the potential to provide resistance. My novice opinion is number 2).

Also lets say we have a substantial bounce of 1) would you then still consider 2) or 3) to be as strong or...
excellent, excellent questions. this is the thinking propells you forward. When I get time (not now) I will share some thoughts
  • #1,751
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:13am Dec 1, 2011 3:13am
Hi,

I came across this thread y'day. Thanks WMD for this thread.

http://clip2net.com/s/1mzbX

I did this and went into the GU Long trade at 5658, bit too early(Must work on the missed opportunity fear) but I had other entry at 5642 with a stop for both at 5636 and TP of 5681. Done and dusted with both of them.

http://clip2net.com/s/1mzeT

Not bad. Thanks WMD.
  • #1,752
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:41am Dec 1, 2011 3:41am
might be on the verge of breaking out to the upside!!!!

I have a question for you knowledgeable people. How do you draw the TLs and Supp/Res?

The thing is I see too many of these things and it can get confusing!!!

Thanks.
  • #1,753
  • Dec 1, 2011 3:54am Dec 1, 2011 3:54am
Quoting dazzdude
It could work, I'd be looking for something else to back the entry. It could pullback a little further than that level. lets see what happens.

dazz
The level is giving over 50 pips profit atm, not bad. When you say something else to back the entry, what factors would you count as valid confluence? Any charts that you're watching that you're waiting for entry on? Maybe you could explain the factors that you see to give you what you need to 'back' the entry, would be much appreciated! It would be cool to get an example of what factors are enough when present together.
  • #1,754
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:10am Dec 1, 2011 6:10am
Just another update on the Nzd.Usd short I'm looking at. We are consolidating just below the trendline now. I wouldn't be surprised if we get very little movement until the NFP tomorrow. Anyway, I am happy to cut this quickly if we get above 0.7825.

4hr and 5 min charts - 5 min chart is my wishful thinking!
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  • #1,755
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:25am Dec 1, 2011 6:25am
Have a look at this!!!

http://clip2net.com/s/1mBa5

Just a trade I did!!!!

I am still not completely happy with drawing of the lines.

I think these trades are beginners' luck!!! LOL! No, I do not think that!!!

Also, how do I post actual charts instead of the links.
  • #1,756
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:32am Dec 1, 2011 6:32am
Quoting nkp9999

Also, how do I post actual charts instead of the links.
Just click on "Manage Attachments" below your post and upload your chart from wherever you have it saved on your computer
  • #1,757
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:46am Dec 1, 2011 6:46am
Quoting dazzdude
It could work, I'd be looking for something else to back the entry. It could pullback a little further than that level. lets see what happens.

dazz
mpat89, this ones for you.

dazz
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  • #1,758
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:54am Dec 1, 2011 6:54am
Quoting dazzdude
mpat89, this ones for you.

dazz
and this is how it looks on a 5min chart

make sense?

dazz
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  • #1,759
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:19am Dec 1, 2011 7:19am
Quoting hometrading
I am getting a good understanding of the bop method discussed here. Sometimes I find myself presented with several options where resistance (or support) is located. I have attached a chart to illustrate this.

You can see a breakout occuring here, once price pullbacks I am wondering which of the 3 resistance lines has the highest probility for a bounce?

All three have the potential to provide resistance. My novice opinion is number 2).

Also lets say we have a substantial bounce of 1) would you then still consider 2) or 3) to be as strong or...
This is a fantastic qu and one that will take a few words to reply to.

1. Lets start with the concept of "a turn in price is caused by an imbalance of buy and sell orders".

2. Lets assume there are waiting sell orders at all three levels you have marked up.

3. Lets say price is heading back up to these levels (because there is currently more buyers than sellers)

What happens?

When price hits level "1", if the sells orders greatly outway the current buy orders pushing prices higher, prices will reverse and you have a good short trade.

However, lets say that price does not reverse, it stalls, but then keeps going higher and hits level 2? What does that mean to the order flow?

In my mind, although the sell orders at level 1 was not enough to reverse price, it was enough to "absorb" a chunk of the buying pressure.

Therefore, when price gets to level 2, there is now a greater chance that the waiting sell orders will overwhelme the buyers and and cause a reversal.

Make sense? I will show this in my next post.

dazz
  • #1,760
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:26am Dec 1, 2011 7:26am
Quoting dazzdude
Make sense? I will show this in my next post.

dazz
original qu in post

as promised, an example (using recent cable PA)

tell me if my ramble makes no sense

dazz
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