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The Really Useless Thread

  • #37,221
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:18am Nov 30, 2011 11:18am
they do fit my plan too.

now i just need that we get back inside yesterday's candle for some pips short. then i will look for longs if the daily closes above 3343 (almost surely).

yesterdays high is being a huge bother, though. hope we weren't just fading stops just now...

Quoting gatorinla
i cant say i knew about the fed crap. but the spike a day ago told me 3568/85 min. it wasn't a perfect signal... if it was i would of said 3585 or 3610.
my point is 3585 was close to an 80% shot. and we still even with the koolaid didnt get there yet. i am surprised. the day is still young. but someone is selling on the way up to counter the s stops triggered.
dreams do come true.
  • #37,222
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:19am Nov 30, 2011 11:19am
Quoting gatorinla
i cant say i knew about the fed crap. but the spike a day ago told me 3568/85 min. it wasn't a perfect signal... if it was i would of said 3585 or 3610.
my point is 3585 was close to an 80% shot. and we still even with the koolaid didnt get there yet. i am surprised. the day is still young. but someone is selling on the way up to counter the s stops triggered.
Well, to be fair, I have a daily and H12 supply zone and still shows a lower high at this point in time.

If Daily close under 3441 , nothing has changed. Dollar bullish.
  • #37,223
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:23am Nov 30, 2011 11:23am
Quoting Venice
Well, to be fair, I have a daily and H12 supply zone and still shows a lower high at this point in time.

If Daily close under 3441 , nothing has changed. Dollar bullish.
back to the same 3440 and 20
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  • #37,224
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:24am Nov 30, 2011 11:24am
Quoting kill56
back to the same 3440 and 20
Same numbers all week long... hehe
  • #37,225
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:27am Nov 30, 2011 11:27am
Still there ! take or break 3441/13 now .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #37,226
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:28am Nov 30, 2011 11:28am
Quoting Wulfgar
I'm shlong 24/7 bro
I bet we go into the 1.40's again
  • #37,227
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:33am Nov 30, 2011 11:33am
Quoting Venice
Well, to be fair, I have a daily and H12 supply zone and still shows a lower high at this point in time.

If Daily close under 3441 , nothing has changed. Dollar bullish.
i don't doubt that. i have do what it know. its free to be out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,228
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:39am Nov 30, 2011 11:39am
Quoting kill56
back to the same 3440 and 20
i like 3672... if you can get past 3568 85 3610
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,229
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:43am Nov 30, 2011 11:43am
Quoting gatorinla
i like 3672... if you can get past 3568 85 3610
3731 for me, same deal.
  • #37,230
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:46am Nov 30, 2011 11:46am
Quoting Wulfgar
So Ben bailed out the world? I thought for sure we would hit 1.3 before I rode the bull back up...
I don't think there was the luxury of time. I lived through the failure of Continental Illinois, the Penn Central, the brokerage failure weekend, and Long Term Capital, among others, and this had all the earmarks of a Near Miss:

The guns loaded two days ago, the coordination yesterday;
then
A systemic bank downgrade event in the face of expanding CDS and collapsing bond prices;
then
the announcement and a sequence of unexplainable data beats.

The money markets were just about ready to freeze solid; everything pointed to it, and with the downgrades among the biggest dealers, it likely would have tipped over.

Glad to see most everyone weathered it or prospered.
  • #37,231
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:47am Nov 30, 2011 11:47am
i like 3695
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  • #37,232
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:47am Nov 30, 2011 11:47am
Quoting OldQuant
I don't think there was the luxury of time. I lived through the failure of Continental Illinois, the Penn Central, the brokerage failure weekend, and Long Term Capital, among others, and this had all the earmarks of a Near Miss:

The guns loaded two days ago, the coordination yesterday;
then
A systemic bank downgrade event in the face of expanding CDS and collapsing bond prices;
then
the announcement and a sequence of unexplainable data beats.

The money markets were just about ready to freeze solid; everything pointed to it, and with...
How many months down the road was the can kicked this time?
  • #37,233
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:51am Nov 30, 2011 11:51am
Quoting gatorinla
i like 3672... if you can get past 3568 85 3610

if thats if we go up their it will be a long term trade will never let it go
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  • #37,234
  • Nov 30, 2011 11:59am Nov 30, 2011 11:59am
Quoting Venice
How many months down the road was the can kicked this time?
Months? This just kept the doors open and avoided the near certainty of a liquidity-induced failure occurring within days if not hours.

Gotta keep in mind: the loss -even temporary- of even one major European swap dealer would hit this skittish market so hard that it wouldn't function properly for long enough to spread systemically. Remember, there's virtually no credit risk priced into derivatives.

This isn't about sovereign debt. It's all about the bank's ability to fund.
  • #37,235
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:01pm Nov 30, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting OldQuant
Months? This just kept the doors open and avoided the near certainty of a liquidity-induced failure occurring within days if not hours.

Gotta keep in mind: the loss -even temporary- of even one major European swap dealer would hit this skittish market so hard that it wouldn't function properly for long enough to spread systemically. Remember, there's virtually no credit risk priced into derivatives.

This isn't about sovereign debt. It's all about the bank's ability to fund.
Thanks.
  • #37,236
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:01pm Nov 30, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting OldQuant
I don't think there was the luxury of time. I lived through the failure of Continental Illinois, the Penn Central, the brokerage failure weekend, and Long Term Capital, among others, and this had all the earmarks of a Near Miss:

The guns loaded two days ago, the coordination yesterday;
then
A systemic bank downgrade event in the face of expanding CDS and collapsing bond prices;
then
the announcement and a sequence of unexplainable data beats.

The money markets were just about ready to freeze solid; everything pointed to it, and with the downgrades...
OldQuant,

I found that the correlation between the Garman klauss estimator and just simplly the range of the bar is nearly 1

do you have any time to chat ?
  • #37,237
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:04pm Nov 30, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting darimik
OldQuant,

I found that the correlation between the Garman klauss estimator and just simplly the range of the bar is nearly 1

do you have any time to chat ?
this graph..

volatility is based on the garman klauss and i dont know why its says atr, but its the daily range.

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I was thinking of going deeper. say the hourly closes. then take the last 24 hours, and calculate stdev. maybe that will be more appropriate?
  • #37,238
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:08pm Nov 30, 2011 12:08pm
couple of daily swing mids for your pipe smoking pleasure....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #37,239
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:08pm Nov 30, 2011 12:08pm
OQ

Good to see you back around here my man. And I think ur spot on. The fed had to make a choice fast to either act or watch the world burn.

Personally I got bitch slapped temporarily... doesn't put me outta the game....

But Christmas is def cancelled this year.... Mrs Wulfgar is gonna have to live without a new LV purse for 2012
  • #37,240
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:10pm Nov 30, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting OldQuant
and Long Term Capital
that was a four handle day in the bonds, pretty wild, think I'm still waiting on fills.....hope your well bro, PTL...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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