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  • #5,521
  • Nov 26, 2011 1:35pm Nov 26, 2011 1:35pm
Hello all
I found this thread while browsing the 'systems' section on FF. This looks promising and I look forward to trying it. Though it is hard for me to do so because I work overnight during the times of both the NY and London open. But I am still going to pursue this strategy.
I do though have a couple of questions.
1. What kind of leverage do you all use? Seems to me that you would have to use pretty high leverage which, as leverage goes, would be a good and a bad thing.
2. This is done on the 5 minute chart, right? I went through the first few posts which said to use the 5 sec TF. But then after the rules were redone it said to use the 5 min. Just making sure.
3. Also one other question and this has to do with knowing when the move is over. I know that you are all shooting for 140 pip return on each of the trades you do, but does any one use supply and demand analysis to know when the current trend is ending?

Thanks and I look forward to trying this strategy and of course making money from it! Also look forward to watching this thread.
AAW
  • #5,522
  • Edited Nov 28, 2011 11:50am Nov 27, 2011 11:14pm | Edited Nov 28, 2011 11:50am
Since I have a similar situation (work during NY open), I wrote an EA to handle the trades as per Tony's rules. Just finished debugging it this evening (hopefully!). Will be testing it over the next few weeks. File attached below.

Oanda's spreads are looking pretty high lately (1.2-1.3 for EURUSD), and they are a Market Maker (MM), which means price slippage goes on. So I'm trying LoyalForex with their ECN option. EU spreads are generally <= 1.0 pip, and minimum SL distance is 0.9 pips. Seem to have all good reviews.

1. Actually, because our stop is so tight (<= 2 pips), we can ramp up the lots while keeping our risk relatively low (1%). AFAIK, the only thing that leverage determines is what amount of free margin you need in order to buy/sell 1 lot. I think of it sorta like a "collateral" requirement.

The combination of our stop loss and # lots traded is what determines how much $$ we are risking. Leverage just determines "how much leash" our broker gives us to trade #'s of lots. If we're disciplined with money management (as per Tony's rules), keeping our stops in close, a long leash isn't risky at all. Unfortunately, you and I both are in the U.S., which means the max legal leverage for us is 50:1

2. Aye, you must've read more of the thread than me. But technically it makes little difference what chart we use. 5-seconds just helps us see the small moves easier. But the original rule of trading in the direction of the first 1-pip movement of the London/NY open candles can be observed on M1 just fine.

3. I don't recall Tony mentioning anything besides his chosen levels (140, now 300). But I know some of these other guys are looking at the ADR and S/R to choose their targets. I'm just gonna try 140 for now.

Hopefully the settings on the EA are self-explanatory. Let me know. Although I'm pretty sure I ironed out all the bugs, there are no guarantees.

~Josh
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Tony112.mq4   9 KB | 376 downloads
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,523
  • Edited 11:55pm Nov 27, 2011 11:30pm | Edited 11:55pm
P.S. Someone's already made an EA for this somewhere. May be better than mine. But truth be told I never feel like I can rely on an EA that I haven't programmed myself :nerd:
~Josh
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,524
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:16am Nov 28, 2011 12:16am
Quoting jrodatus
Since I have a similar situation (work during NY open), I wrote an EA to handle the trades as per Tony's rules. Just finished debugging it this evening (hopefully!). Will be testing it over the next few weeks.
Josh,
Thanks, I will also test it out and give you some feedback.
Blessings, Monk E.
  • #5,525
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:17am Nov 28, 2011 10:17am
WELL! The pending order feature is messed up! It was supposed to be for S/R breakouts like Tony sometimes trades... like this one a few minutes ago.

Sorry to hijack the thread with an unfinished EA. I am not a big fan of using EAs, the reason being that I've NEVER come across one that profits consistently. But in this situation some of us do require one, because of our work schedules. Will fix...

~Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_support_breakout.gif Size: 7 KB
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,526
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:40am Nov 28, 2011 10:40am
Quoting jrodatus
WELL! The pending order feature is messed up! It was supposed to be for S/R breakouts like Tony sometimes trades... like this one a few minutes ago.

Sorry to hijack the thread with an unfinished EA. I am not a big fan of using EAs, the reason being that I've NEVER come across one that profits consistently. But in this situation some of us do require one, because of our work schedules. Will fix...

~Josh
Josh, I don't think you are hijacking the thread at all. I have done some tedious backtesting and I WISH I had an EA to do the forward testing!

I am trying to get some data to backtest programatically. Not having good luck yet. But if I can figure this out, then I'll have a good reason to get up at 2:45am every day!

Please keep posting updates to your EA. It would be a BIG help. Thanks for sharing your work!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,527
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:31am Nov 28, 2011 11:31am
Thanks for the encouragement Frog!

For reference, the issue was that with an ECN broker, one must place the order with no SL/TP, then set them afterward using OrderModify. Otherwise we get an error 130. Shoulda knowed dat. EA updated in post 5522. Also added more verbose logging...

Quoting AlienFrog
Please keep posting updates to your EA. It would be a BIG help. Thanks for sharing your work!
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,528
  • Nov 28, 2011 8:49pm Nov 28, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting jrodatus
Since I have a similar situation (work during NY open), I wrote an EA to handle the trades as per Tony's rules. Just finished debugging it this evening (hopefully!). Will be testing it over the next few weeks. File attached below.

Oanda's spreads are looking pretty high lately (1.2-1.3 for EURUSD), and they are a Market Maker (MM), which means price slippage goes on. So I'm trying LoyalForex with their ECN option. EU spreads are generally <= 1.0 pip, and minimum SL distance is 0.9 pips. Seem to have all good reviews.

1. Actually,...
Thanks Josh for your reply.
I downloaded the EA you provided to a demo account of mine. I will let you know how it performs as it does. Now just to make sure though, this EA works on the 1 min chart, correct? Or can it work on other time frames as well?
I have it loaded on a 1 min chart of EUR/USD.
Thanks again.
AAW
  • #5,529
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:55pm Nov 28, 2011 9:55pm
Yup- it's made to work on any MT4 chart from M1 up to H1 (i.e. not for 5-sec FlexiCharts). It looks for price to move 1-pip (or whatever you set it to) from the open of the first session candle, and then trails the SL at each level defined in the settings.

Don't forget to input your server's GMT offset. Mine (LoyalForex) alternates between +3 and +2 depending on the season... so that's something you gotta find or calculate

The EA won't trade if the spread is too wide. But if your broker has a wide stop level (large minimum SL), the EA will notice this and use virtual stops

Look forward to hearing back from you! What broker are you using, btw?

~J

EDIT: The forum hyperlinked the word "broker" above, not me! Must be advertising

Quoting Anewr
Thanks Josh for your reply.
I downloaded the EA you provided to a demo account of mine. I will let you know how it performs as it does. Now just to make sure though, this EA works on the 1 min chart, correct? Or can it work on other time frames as well?
I have it loaded on a 1 min chart of EUR/USD.
Thanks again.
AAW
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,530
  • Edited Nov 29, 2011 8:46am Nov 28, 2011 10:56pm | Edited Nov 29, 2011 8:46am
To summarize rac's manual tick backtest reported last year in post #4855 and #4868: During the first 11 months of 2010, there were ~484 openings traded. 53% of these broke even, 44% hit -2 pip SL, and <3% hit +140 pip TP.

To be exact, (14 wins x 140 pips) - (214 losses x 2 pips) = +1532 net pips. Risking 1% of account per trade yields 0.5% profit/pip. That's 766% account growth for the first 11 months of 2010 Wait, did I do that right? Err, that doesn't account for compounding...

In any case, two essentials of the method:

 

  1. Be prepared for strings of ~80 consecutive losses (2 months, 40% account drawdown). It happened (can't remember whether in '10 or '11). BUT...
  2. Refund all losses to your account at the end of each week. Assuming half of trades move to BE, you should only have to refund about 5% of your account per week ($50/wk for a $1000 acct.)


~Josh

Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,531
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:04pm Nov 29, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting jrodatus
Yup- it's made to work on any MT4 chart from M1 up to H1 (i.e. not for 5-sec FlexiCharts). It looks for price to move 1-pip (or whatever you set it to) from the open of the first session candle, and then trails the SL at each level defined in the settings.

Don't forget to input your server's GMT offset. Mine (LoyalForex) alternates between +3 and +2 depending on the season... so that's something you gotta find or calculate

The EA won't trade if the spread is too wide. But if your broker has a wide stop level (large minimum SL),...
Thanks again. The directions on how to set up the EA really helped me so I will put those in and see how it goes.
I am using Euromax FX for the demo account (which is where I uploaded the EA to test it) and I just opened up a live account with HotForex. (HotForex is now my third broker =P)
  • #5,532
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:53pm Nov 29, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting Anewr
Thanks again. The directions on how to set up the EA really helped me so I will put those in and see how it goes.
I am using Euromax FX for the demo account (which is where I uploaded the EA to test it) and I just opened up a live account with HotForex. (HotForex is now my third broker =P)
Also one more thing... I just signed up for a practice account with Loyal Forex. So now I will see what happens and how this EA does. Also just curious, what pairs do you use this EA on? I have loaded just on EUR/USD right now but was curious if you had tried it on any other pairs with any success (or not).
Thanks again!
  • #5,533
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:37pm Nov 29, 2011 5:37pm
Cool. The original rules stated EU only. The vast majority of other pairs have spreads too high. I think UJ might work, but I expect an Asian pair is going to behave differently at the London & NY openings. And practically speaking, since the drawdown for this method is so high, I probably couldn't fund 2 pairs at once anyway.

I'm just gonna stick with Tony's set of rules. If it works for him, then it ain't broke. And if it ain't broke...

The BIG QUESTION is whether the strategy is really as mechanical as it appears. I think it would be really hard for Tony not to use some intuition/discretion in each situation for determining what a "1 pip" movement is, and when to trail his stops. He's human

But since we're expecting on average 34 losses for every win, it might takes months to know whether we're successful.

Patience is key Clearly this method isn't for everyone.

~J

Quoting Anewr
Also one more thing... I just signed up for a practice account with Loyal Forex. So now I will see what happens and how this EA does. Also just curious, what pairs do you use this EA on? I have loaded just on EUR/USD right now but was curious if you had tried it on any other pairs with any success (or not).
Thanks again!
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,534
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:38pm Nov 29, 2011 5:38pm
P.S. Don't forget to change your GMT offset to +2 (for the winter).
Those who can kneel before God, can stand before anyone.
  • #5,535
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:13am Nov 30, 2011 12:13am
Quoting jrodatus
To summarize rac's manual tick backtest reported last year in post #4855 and #4868: During the first 11 months of 2010, there were ~484 openings traded. 53% of these broke even, 44% hit -2 pip SL, and <3% hit +140 pip TP.

To be exact, (14 wins x 140 pips) - (214 losses x 2 pips) = +1532 net pips. Risking 1% of account per trade yields 0.5% profit/pip. That's 766% account growth for the first 11 months of 2010 Wait, did I do that right? Err, that doesn't account for compounding...

In any case, two essentials of the method:
[list][*]Be...

You got it right, I can definitely see you succeeding in the future... just have to keep good management techniques, good job
The hardest thing is to stick to the rules and not make additional unrelated trades.... which was hard for me. I'm very reserved nowadays...
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,536
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:07am Nov 30, 2011 7:07am
I started to test this manually few days ago, with TP = 20 at NY open. Until now few losses and 1 BE, but today I just got 20 pips in few seconds. This strategy rocks! I'll keep you guys posted.
r u ready?
  • #5,537
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:15am Nov 30, 2011 7:15am
There are a few times in our lives when we can definitely say Epic Win
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ee3.jpg Size: 49 KB
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,538
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:46am Nov 30, 2011 7:46am
we tried installing it in the main hall but we were forced to move it in the guest reception hall... its ok
Attached Image
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,539
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:15am Nov 30, 2011 9:15am
Oh man...I was actually going to start this system this morning, but decided to wait and practice a few days first to get the hang of it! Cant believe I missed it! I would have hit it in my first day!! And the thing is - this is the CLASSIC setup that you talked about over the past year and a half Tony....cant believe I would have hit it in my first day...but I missed it!! LOL
  • #5,540
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:39am Nov 30, 2011 9:39am
Man, I am kicking myself UP AND DOWN for missing this one...hahaha!!
AAARGHHHH!!!!
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