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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #1,721
  • Nov 29, 2011 7:04am Nov 29, 2011 7:04am
Quoting challenger78
American Airlines files for banckruptcy

I expect the US stock market wont like this when it opens soon... this piece of information, if it plays out, would support USDCAD long (and AUDUSD short for that matter).
follow up on cad

one thing I need to remember is to stick to the higher time frames (all those years of scalping a 1min chart - old habits die hard!). dropping down gets interesting and can be v handy, though u need to be careful as well! waiting for the 1 hr candle to close (patence!...) tells a much more accurate story doesn't it :-)
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  • #1,722
  • Edited 7:23am Nov 29, 2011 7:13am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting dazzdude
follow up on cad

one thing I need to remember is to stick to the higher time frames (all those years of scalping a 1min chart - old habits die hard!). dropping down gets interesting and can be v handy, though u need to be careful as well! waiting for the 1 hr candle to close (patence!...) tells a much more accurate story doesn't it :-)
depends, personally I am quite happy for lower TF entry for even more deadly accuracy Already short au since 1.0020 and +20 as we speak. All the best!

Edit: though this parity level will be a bummer to take out... but if we do should pay off nicely

Edit2: you got CAD current account to watch out for too in 7 minutes
  • #1,723
  • Nov 29, 2011 7:18am Nov 29, 2011 7:18am
follow up on eur, post

u know, most of these trades work out nicely.... (note to self) I really should put more weight on this pattern and less on the breakout... several times I have a passed on a good 'wmd hook' setup, only to see it work out beautifully!

boy... the clean setups are indeed deadly..... its good learning for all and its getting clearer and clearer what works and what does not.

cheer

dazz
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  • #1,724
  • Nov 29, 2011 7:22am Nov 29, 2011 7:22am
Quoting dazzdude
hmmm, are these posts actually helping anyone? or just generating lots of rubbish on Will's thread for people to wad thru? I have to admit, its rewarding to share, though its takes time away from actually trading. feel free to let me know...

dazz
Keep the charts coming dazz, your analysis is top notch.
  • #1,725
  • Nov 29, 2011 8:55am Nov 29, 2011 8:55am
Quoting Pat Mustard
Keep the charts coming dazz, your analysis is top notch.
Yeah dazz, keep it up... it can help YOU as well as others.
  • #1,726
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:00am Nov 29, 2011 9:00am
Last post regarding my start-of-the-week GBPJPY trade.
here it is :

Ka-ching!
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  • #1,727
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:47am Nov 29, 2011 9:47am
Well lads, a lot of the risk pairs are threatening their bear trends today. Here's another one, AUD.JPY daily.
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  • #1,728
  • Nov 29, 2011 10:00am Nov 29, 2011 10:00am
Quoting ZeeJay
Last post regarding my start-of-the-week GBPJPY trade.
here it is :

Ka-ching!
NICE! Liked your video
  • #1,729
  • Nov 29, 2011 8:31pm Nov 29, 2011 8:31pm
Hi there;
I have just discovered this thread and whilst I am relatively new to FX the breakout hook method makes a lot of sense to me. I am just wondering if the gap that we saw at the beginning of the week in the Aussie qualify as a strong move up?

There is a nice looking hook, followed by further upside movement. Now looking at the origin of the move, I have drawn two line that I think may fit. Just wondering which one has more potential to hold?

Thanks
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  • #1,730
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:52am Nov 30, 2011 12:52am
Following up on the EURUSD setup mentioned by duzz. Is there another potential setup when price moves higher again?
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  • #1,731
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:03am Nov 30, 2011 1:03am
Quoting hometrading
Hi there;
I have just discovered this thread and whilst I am relatively new to FX the breakout hook method makes a lot of sense to me. I am just wondering if the gap that we saw at the beginning of the week in the Aussie qualify as a strong move up?

There is a nice looking hook, followed by further upside movement. Now looking at the origin of the move, I have drawn two line that I think may fit. Just wondering which one has more potential to hold?

Thanks
Not sure about the gap. The hook you show in not in line with what I would call a valid hook.

dazz
  • #1,732
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:13am Nov 30, 2011 1:13am
Quoting hometrading
Is there another potential setup when price moves higher again?
My bias at this point is not long on eur. I'd need to see evidence of a reversal first.

Regarding your qu about where price could move higher, the most likely place will be the demand zone shown by the grey box. As you can see, price reacted nicely last time this zone was touched, however the first touch is usually the best. It will only do this again if the demand imbalance was not absorbed last time.

dazz
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  • #1,733
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:19am Nov 30, 2011 1:19am
aud option
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  • #1,734
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:24am Nov 30, 2011 1:24am
follow up on cad. yep, my original thoughts were spot on...

post
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  • #1,735
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:47am Nov 30, 2011 3:47am
Just a quick update to my AUD.JPY short from yesterday. Price seems to be respecting the line for now, a nice pin bar was posted on the 4hr chart. Hopefully we get some movement down from here.
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  • #1,736
  • Nov 30, 2011 3:58am Nov 30, 2011 3:58am
Quoting dazzdude
My bias at this point is not long on eur. I'd need to see evidence of a reversal first.

dazz
Thanks for the feedback, not sure if you understood the question though. I am wondering if (maybe in a couple of days/weeks) the price moves higher if, according to the rules of the breakout hook setup, the breakout line drawn at 1.35 will most likely be a place where we can expect a bounce.

Thanks
  • #1,737
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:10am Nov 30, 2011 4:10am
Quoting dazzdude
Not sure about the gap. The hook you show in not in line with what I would call a valid hook.

dazz
Thanks dazz, just wondering what negates the hook for you in this example? Is it that the move up to it was not strong enough?

Anyway I went down to a 15 min chart and saw this which looks like a valid setup (in the past)
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  • #1,738
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:51am Nov 30, 2011 4:51am
Quoting Pat Mustard
Just a quick update to my AUD.JPY short from yesterday. Price seems to be respecting the line for now, a nice pin bar was posted on the 4hr chart. Hopefully we get some movement down from here.
just keep in mind that any speculation about BOJ intervention will ruin your short. The same goes for any optimistic comments coming out of ECOFIN meetings today that can boost risk sentiment, or any positive numbers out of US Re jobs in 2 and a half hours. Currently market is confused and waiting for direction, personally this moment I prefer to wait for the market to show its hand first. All the best.
  • #1,739
  • Nov 30, 2011 6:00am Nov 30, 2011 6:00am
Quoting hometrading
Thanks for the feedback, not sure if you understood the question though. I am wondering if (maybe in a couple of days/weeks) the price moves higher if, according to the rules of the breakout hook setup, the breakout line drawn at 1.35 will most likely be a place where we can expect a bounce.

Thanks
sry mate, your right, I do not get your qu. The level I think you might be referring to 1.3430? maybe try mark up a chart again so i can see clearly, otherwise I would be guessing.

for what it is worth, here are my general views on eur (for what is possible) - but its a little of track of this thread (apologies), so will not mention this stuff much

chart 1: weekly COT, suggestive of a longer term move up
chart 2: daily SEASONAL, suggestive of move up to the end of the year
chart 3: 4 hr, just shows my BIAS

so, for the moment, my BIAS is still short, but you can clearly see from the TL and SR level where my BIAS would change to long. At that point (and only from that point) I can consider my longer term considerations as explained. if that happens, then TA/PA for entrties/stops/targets.

dazz
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  • #1,740
  • Nov 30, 2011 6:11am Nov 30, 2011 6:11am
Quoting hometrading
Thanks dazz, just wondering what negates the hook for you in this example? Is it that the move up to it was not strong enough?

Anyway I went down to a 15 min chart and saw this which looks like a valid setup (in the past)
your previous chart: i c now, u was using the gap as the break out point (bop). that could work, it just does not look clean to me, but it could work fine

Your 15 mins chart: very nice! good set setup. that's what your looking for

dazz
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