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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,741
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:25am Nov 29, 2011 11:25am
I reverse to long trade for a rotational adjustment similar to s7c's trade. Responsive activities prior to US initiates, but volume is relatively subdue though.

Next would be TK high & maybe up to UK VAH for resistance as it seems to be balancing within UK's VA. I have reduce my exposure on 3350.

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/6...7nov300115.gif

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  • #3,742
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:54am Nov 29, 2011 11:54am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak

Next would be TK high & maybe up to UK VAH for resistance as it seems to be balancing within UK's VA. I have reduce my exposure on 3350.
3350, being the high of US IB? you don't change your target, if you like price action? i was surprised by the price action from last half hour, i closed for +15 pips, even i had +50...
  • #3,743
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:11pm Nov 29, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting s7c
3350, being the high of US IB? you don't change your target, if you like price action? i was surprised by the price action from last half hour, i closed for +15 pips, even i had +50...
I always take down the next nearest RN if i have the chance, this is how i manage my trade so that I would not be so emotionally attache with my remaining exposure, whereever it may go with either a small or risk free trade with what's left.

Anyway looks like a takedown off TK high as we speak..
  • #3,744
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:47pm Nov 29, 2011 12:47pm
I think that back ground (London) still support short for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD...I might be wrong of course....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,745
  • Edited 7:50am Nov 30, 2011 7:27am | Edited 7:50am
Wow, big old spike this morning on Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, BoC lowering swap rates by 50 bp!

Interestingly enough, in case you're wondering.... This spike is a beautiful example of how the Market Profile can exemplify how the market uses price. A gap in distribution is an area in price that the market has yet to use. Usually, the market will wind up there one way or another just to see "what's goin on here". Those of you who were long, congrats. Those of you who were short, I hope your stop losses were adequately filled. I have a feeling a lot of retail traders just got CRUSHED by this move. Maybe even some amateurs just went broke. Me? I was sleeping. LOL.

This spike didn't even touch the monthly high so remember who's still in control in the long run.


If one looks carefully, the Pound experiences the same.
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  • #3,746
  • Edited 8:03am Nov 30, 2011 7:49am | Edited 8:03am
Quoting Bilstein
Wow, big old spike this morning on Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, BoC lowering swap rates by 50 bp!

Interestingly enough, in case you're wondering.... This spike is a beautiful example of how the Market Profile can exemplify how the market uses price. A gap in distribution is an area in price that the market has yet to use. Usually, the market will wind up there one way or another just to see "what's goin on here". Those of you who were long, congrats. Those of you who were short, I hope your stop losses were adequately filled. I have a feeling a lot...
my BE SL filled faraway above it (+-166 pips)... i was about to complain.. but then when I close and reopen the platform there is a new balance update same as the loses. huh... crazy market..

I think eu goin to 20 days POC and may go to last year POC
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  • #3,747
  • Nov 30, 2011 7:55am Nov 30, 2011 7:55am
I can tell you this; when the market reacts this way, it sucks. Price action moves so fast, your SL's and even TP's can be breezed away by price action. I'm sure, somewhere out there, there is a trader who experienced the same as you, Bandung, only they were long with a TP at 1.34 or something, lol. Realistically, no one could see THAT coming. I figured the market would auction higher to finish off yesterday's excess but not that extreme.
  • #3,748
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:11am Nov 30, 2011 8:11am
Quoting Bilstein
I can tell you this; when the market reacts this way, it sucks. Price action moves so fast, your SL's and even TP's can be breezed away by price action. I'm sure, somewhere out there, there is a trader who experienced the same as you, Bandung, only they were long with a TP at 1.34 or something, lol. Realistically, no one could see THAT coming. I figured the market would auction higher to finish off yesterday's excess but not that extreme.
I was thingkin it will go to tokyo low at least when i short

ps: there is a reaction around 20 days dyn POC 353x
...
  • #3,749
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:14am Nov 30, 2011 8:14am
So now, the eternal question: What's our next move?

  • #3,750
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:25am Nov 30, 2011 9:25am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Bilstein
So now, the eternal question: What's our next move?

get drunked
  • #3,751
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:30am Nov 30, 2011 9:30am
Could not post earlier due to work. Lucky day today. I was anticipating potential response today prior to UK opening due to the very balance profile of pass sessions. market was marked down to unfair low relative to yesterday balance prior to European sessions.

Trade entry was on the pullback into DVAL after UK opening initiatives while still balancing, with prior responsive activities noted.

VPOC of 3460 have been eluding me but not today. I have my exposure reduce here & 3515, leaving abit to tease my syco...

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/8...3nov302319.gif
  • #3,752
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:13am Dec 1, 2011 4:13am
With US/TK balance & a rather similar setup to yesterday's, after a pull back confirmation. A strong inertial after UK's reponsive this time, right onto previous US session low as reference.

Risk to trade is 13p. Exposure reduce at 3500 with remaining to 3550. I suppose by then inventory would be long & profit taking across the board after yesterday strong moves could come into play...

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/2...5dec011802.gif
  • #3,753
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:13am Dec 1, 2011 5:13am
Quoting Evak
With US/TK balance & a rather similar setup to yesterday's, after a pull back confirmation. A strong inertial after UK's reponsive this time, right onto previous US session low as reference.

Risk to trade is 13p. Exposure reduce at 3500 with remaining to 3550. I suppose by then inventory would be long & profit taking across the board after yesterday strong moves could come into play...

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/2...5dec011802.gif...
i saw you still hold your yesterday buy..

i'm on the same boat.. on your today buy

I have some fib level too..
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  • #3,754
  • Dec 1, 2011 7:59am Dec 1, 2011 7:59am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
With US/TK balance & a rather similar setup to yesterday's, after a pull back confirmation. A strong inertial after UK's reponsive this time, right onto previous US session low as reference.

Risk to trade is 13p. Exposure reduce at 3500 with remaining to 3550. I suppose by then inventory would be long & profit taking across the board after yesterday strong moves could come into play...
i just waked up and i was looking at that myself, very nice risk/reward trade...
today looks like a non conviction day, so trading the extremes? i may just missed a good opportunity to short at yesterday's high, but not enough though. i think i will wait for pit session...
  • #3,755
  • Dec 1, 2011 8:28am Dec 1, 2011 8:28am
Quoting bandung
i saw you still hold your yesterday buy..

i'm on the same boat.. on your today buy

I have some fib level too..
Wow, same entry...
  • #3,756
  • Dec 1, 2011 10:36am Dec 1, 2011 10:36am
just an example of what can be done with dynamic value indicator - nothing new in terms of trading principles, just using a more accurate tool.

blue areas are dyn val for last 24 hours; 70% of the activity occurred within this channel - works like a charm for trading inside the channel or when price is ranging... just buy at lower limit, tp / sell at upper limit. or adjust accordingly based on higher tf trend.

my trade for today - buy@3426, [email protected], tp@3480 (weekly points up, it's already trading above weekly dynamic value - not shown here). now as a bonus - i will have a bullish bias until weekly dynamic vaL (now at 3238) is taken. which means there is a great chance that level is tested... and so i am waiting for a sign to go short - entry still @3411, tp@3238 (and adjusting as weekly va is changing).

bandung, thanks again for the indicator , it's one of my favorite.

p.s. purple area are just s/r levels based on vaL/vaH and price action around them.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,757
  • Dec 1, 2011 10:42am Dec 1, 2011 10:42am
and another thing - i think the drop in euro-usd stopped for now. it's time to revisit resistance levels, and it may go as high as upper 1.38 / lower 1.39 (that's monthly dynamic vaH).
still bearish long term.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,758
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:21pm Dec 1, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting s7c
i just waked up and i was looking at that myself, very nice risk/reward trade...
today looks like a non conviction day, so trading the extremes? i may just missed a good opportunity to short at yesterday's high, but not enough though. i think i will wait for pit session...
yup.. not enough conviction today.
...
  • #3,759
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:24pm Dec 1, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting Scrat
just an example of what can be done with dynamic value indicator - nothing new in terms of trading principles, just using a more accurate tool.

blue areas are dyn val for last 24 hours; 70% of the activity occurred within this channel - works like a charm for trading inside the channel or when price is ranging... just buy at lower limit, tp / sell at upper limit. or adjust accordingly based on higher tf trend.

my trade for today - buy@3426, [email protected], tp@3480 (weekly points up, it's already trading above weekly dynamic value - not shown here)....
you're welcome Scrat, thanks for sharing your view about dyn value here
...
  • #3,760
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:06pm Dec 1, 2011 6:06pm
Quoting Evak
Wow, same entry...
i have hidden cam in your trading room
...
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