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  • #1,701
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:02am Nov 29, 2011 4:02am
euraud weekly pin playing out nicely so far
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  • #1,702
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:11am Nov 29, 2011 4:11am
Quoting dazzdude
eur
I would not be very comfortable shorting the euro for big TP at these levels, 5 years and 1 year cot, Commercials at record high and Large spec almost at record lows. All the best
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  • #1,703
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:13am Nov 29, 2011 4:13am
Quoting Mr.C
A flash-back..?
Didn't get the PA wanted. Plan skipped.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #1,704
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:23am Nov 29, 2011 4:23am
Quoting challenger78
I would not be very comfortable shorting the euro for big TP at these levels, 5 years and 1 year cot, Commercials at record high and Large spec almost at record lows. All the best


oh! yours picture are beautiful!

I have followed COT for many years... something I understand very well.

this is how I look at it...

(SO, if we get to the lower TL on my previous eur/aud chart - or there abouts, I would then be expecting the possibility of a "run north", based on COT AND SEASONAL)

please, what are your thoughts?
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  • #1,705
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:31am Nov 29, 2011 4:31am
Quoting dazzdude
possible change on trend of aud?
Hey dazz, if aud was to maintain this trend change but nzdusd was unable to follow suite and stayed below it's trendline, you basically have bullish audusd and bearish nzdusd. This would give a much better move in audnzd to the upside, would you consider trading this long instead once you had enough information to suggest aud breaking to the upside with nzd staying below its trendline? In my time so far I've noticed that in these situations the crosses give much bigger, usually parabolic moves.
edit: not that it matters now, nzd has broken higher
  • #1,706
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:34am Nov 29, 2011 4:34am
i would not be recommending shorting eur right now... but follow up on post and post (enough for a scalp)

nice to see there was a least a reaction to the level

dazz
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  • #1,707
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:55am Nov 29, 2011 4:55am
Quoting mpat89
Hey dazz, if aud was to maintain this trend change but nzdusd was unable to follow suite and stayed below it's trendline, you basically have bullish audusd and bearish nzdusd. This would give a much better move in audnzd to the upside, would you consider trading this long instead once you had enough information to suggest aud breaking to the upside with nzd staying below its trendline? In my time so far I've noticed that in these situations the crosses give much bigger, usually parabolic moves.
edit: not that it matters now, nzd has broken higher...
sorry, that is something I am not sure of.. question exceeds my knowledge level. all I know is that both AUD and KIWI was at a level I would expect a move from, but i had a plan for both pairs as below. Hope it makes sense.

as I have gotten more experienced, my trading has gotten simpler... and simpler... and it gets easier... and easier
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  • #1,708
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:02am Nov 29, 2011 5:02am
follow up on cad

option 1. bounce north
option 2. break south

all you need is a plan for each, take the one that plays out... easy

dazz
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  • #1,709
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:05am Nov 29, 2011 5:05am
I like to thank Will and others FF inputers for sharing their knowledge.

I have some homeworks done on week-ends, may as well share with you all.


獨樂樂不如眾樂樂
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  • #1,710
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:14am Nov 29, 2011 5:14am
Quoting dazzdude
follow up on cad

option 1. bounce north
option 2. break south

all you need is a plan for each, take the one that plays out... easy

dazz
its interesting to see on 5min how the TL is respected... market is making up its mind... once it does, you can execute your plan, then let market show u if u were right or wrong. keep is simple
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  • #1,711
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:18am Nov 29, 2011 5:18am
hmmm, are these posts actually helping anyone? or just generating lots of rubbish on Will's thread for people to wad thru? I have to admit, its rewarding to share, though its takes time away from actually trading. feel free to let me know...

dazz
  • #1,712
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:28am Nov 29, 2011 5:28am
Quoting dazzdude
its interesting to see on 5min how the TL is respected... market is making up its mind... once it does, you can execute your plan, then let market show u if u were right or wrong. keep is simple
follow up in cad... looks like it has made up its mind

if we get a pull back, i know what I am doing

note: agressive entry could have been short inside of cluster (see wmd's explaination of "SAM" trade entries earlier in the thread, he explains the full system very well), or break out.

but I am waiting the pull back now in this instance cause I was thinking it could go north... always a good idea to let the market "show its hand"

dazz
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  • #1,713
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:38am Nov 29, 2011 5:38am
challengers78, as you look at COT, look at swissy! looking good!

dazz
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  • #1,714
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:47am Nov 29, 2011 5:47am
Quoting dazzdude


oh! yours picture are beautiful!

I have followed COT for many years... something I understand very well.

this is how I look at it...

(SO, if we get to the lower TL on my previous eur/aud chart - or there abouts, I would then be expecting the possibility of a "run north", based on COT AND SEASONAL)

please, what are your thoughts?
Hi dazz,

you got a gorgeous platform there, I envy you And I find your posts very relevant and informative.

I don't follow this cross so I am not the best person to ask. But looking at the daily chart it is approaching the bottom part of a triangle, so a buy around 1.32 might be good, and this area of support has held well this year (the 1.29-1.32 zone). Provided nothing catastrophic happens in the eurozone, looks OK to long there.

Yes, seasonally if I remember correctly AUD weakens in the first month of the year, which we are not far off. Cross referencing the COT report for AUD also supports the argument.

You might want to look at interest rate expectations though before going long. I haven't followed closely recently, but I think both AU and EU are about to cut rates, but still AU has a higher interest rate which goes against the long. In Bloomberg terminal you can see the expectations but I don't have access to it. If there is higher chance for rates cut in AU it would help the argument for long. Having said that, the difference has been in place for a long time but didn't affect much in 2011 as we were virtually ranging (compared to 2009 and 10).

Again apologies for diverging from the main style of the thread. All the best.
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  • #1,715
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:55am Nov 29, 2011 5:55am
Quoting challenger78
...You might want to look at interest rate expectations though before going long. I haven't followed closely recently, but I think both AU and EU are about to cut rates, but still AU has a higher interest rate which goes against the long. In Bloomberg terminal ....
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The fundamentals is something I am newb at... an area where I have lots of room for expanding my knowlege cause its rather shallow in that spot :-)
  • #1,716
  • Nov 29, 2011 5:59am Nov 29, 2011 5:59am
Quoting dazzdude
challengers78, as you look at COT, look at swissy! looking good!

dazz
Currently I don't want to touch CHF. Too much risk with SNB ready to intervene any moment, and while it is not intervining, it is moreless the same as trading EURUSD as EURCHF remains moreless constant.

Surprisingly the good trade of the day was short EURSEK a few hours earlier as Swedish GDP came a lot stronger than expected and we were already overbought. I was expecting this to happen given their bond rates of recent days, in fact I couldnt explain why this was going up, didnt make any sense. I was looking at this 2 days ago: http://www.businessinsider.com/swede...inland-2011-11

Might want to take a look into that although it might be a little late to enter now, but if we move up to test the trendine, perhaps....
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  • #1,717
  • Nov 29, 2011 6:06am Nov 29, 2011 6:06am
Quoting challenger78
Currently I don't want to touch CHF. Too much risk with SNB ready to intervene any moment,....
thanks, your knowlege of the fundamentals is inspiring (good reminder for me to learn something in that space).

regarding swissy, Will did mention to me to be wary of intervention, now you mention it (I forgot) thanks for the reminder!
  • #1,718
  • Nov 29, 2011 6:14am Nov 29, 2011 6:14am
cad

no good. looks like an over-throw (which normally indicates a move the other way) I think my orginal thoughts are going to turn out to be correct
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  • #1,719
  • Nov 29, 2011 6:24am Nov 29, 2011 6:24am
Quoting dazzdude
cad

no good. looks like an over-throw (which normally indicates a move the other way) I think my orginal thoughts are going to turn out to be correct
American Airlines files for banckruptcy

I expect the US stock market wont like this when it opens soon... this piece of information, if it plays out, would support USDCAD long (and AUDUSD short for that matter).
  • #1,720
  • Nov 29, 2011 6:33am Nov 29, 2011 6:33am
Quoting dazzdude
thanks, your knowlege of the fundamentals is inspiring (good reminder for me to learn something in that space).

regarding swissy, Will did mention to me to be wary of intervention, now you mention it (I forgot) thanks for the reminder!
well, except of the intervention, the thing seems to over react to every little announcement by Swiss officials, so it's not exactly the most predictable thing to trade, I would even go as far as saying it is manipulated or at least trying to.
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