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S&P 500 Eminis Anyone Trading?

  • #81
  • Nov 21, 2011 9:20am Nov 21, 2011 9:20am
hello all,

as the post earlier, target price hit with almost no drawdown.



Quoting ecmf
Hello all,
i am starting a thread to show that price forecasting is indeed possible once we think out of the box. attached is the price forecasting for ES for 21 Nov 2011
Timeframe (T) = Day trade
Trend (T) = Down
Entry (E) = Sell once price breaks 120100
Stop (S) = 121500
Target (T) = 118925, 118950
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES1121a.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #82
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:57am Nov 28, 2011 9:57am
Livestream, what cd setups are you seeing? I see professional selling at 1195.25 level. Are you seeing any currency set ups related to this move, I'm long u/c at 1.0312
  • #83
  • Nov 28, 2011 1:25pm Nov 28, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting ecmf
Hello all,
i am starting a thread to show that price forecasting is indeed possible once we think out of the box. attached is the price forecasting for ES for 21 Nov 2011
Timeframe (T) = Day trade
Trend (T) = Down
Entry (E) = Sell once price breaks 120100
Stop (S) = 121500
Target (T) = 118925, 118950
That's a market profile chart, where is the prediction?
  • #84
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:25am Dec 1, 2011 1:25am
Quoting Jt the Hyena
Livestream, what cd setups are you seeing? I see professional selling at 1195.25 level. Are you seeing any currency set ups related to this move, I'm long u/c at 1.0312
Sorry I was out of the loop past days traveling and trading remote - there have been set ups all over the place in CME FX and Equity Index instruments. I have been selling ES tonight so I have stop at 1248.00 (down to b/e) with 1243.00 target filled and next targets at 1238.00 and 1233.00 (looks like I will have to watch these markets again tonight as I watch my trade).
  • #85
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:03am Dec 1, 2011 5:03am
I agree, I saw large amounts of professional selling pressure around the 1246 level at yesterday's equity close; I'm also seeing unusually high volume in the overnight session.
  • #86
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:54pm Dec 5, 2011 2:54pm
Livestream, what type of plane is that in your profile pic?
  • #87
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:38pm Dec 5, 2011 3:38pm
Zenith Aircraft CH650B with revised nose cowling and carbon prop - great little Kitplane!

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  • #88
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:56pm Dec 5, 2011 6:56pm
Very nice, my buddy has a grumman and he's trying to rope me into getting my license.

What do you see for tomorrow, I saw buying coming in at the equity close.
  • #89
  • Dec 5, 2011 8:55pm Dec 5, 2011 8:55pm
livestream thanks for the great thread.

if you have a minute, i have a couple questions, what you call "open interest" is a calculation of cumulative delta, correct?

so what i seem to understand that you are doing is that you are waiting for delta to become lopsided, you assume that a market maker is taking the other side of that, and then you fade the move based on the assumption the other guy will have to mark-up/mark-down because all the inventory he is holding?

sounds like a pretty cool philosophy.

thanks for taking the time to clarify.
  • #90
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:56am Dec 6, 2011 7:56am
Quoting Jt the Hyena
Very nice, my buddy has a grumman and he's trying to rope me into getting my license.

What do you see for tomorrow, I saw buying coming in at the equity close.
I have been fading all the rallies past two days so that is the game I am going to stick to until I see a very strong Euro again - and Dollar drop. Yesterday as the market traded to 1266 level there was a substantial divergence between price and Delta - sellers where accumulating short positions into the rally - so I was a seller. Today we have that again at 1260 / 1261 levels.

I will try and put some charts up later so you can see the divergences between price action and the market order flow [large commercial firms main directional trading flow - market order entries]. I have been very busy working on a new system so I have been very busy during US session - I should be able to get some charts up later today.
  • #91
  • Edited 8:34am Dec 6, 2011 8:20am | Edited 8:34am
Very clean Delta Divergence, a textbook setup Id say. Why can't they all be like this one

2 or 3 (depending on how far your looking back) divergences on top of one another with a nice 7000 holding before the drop.

Hope you caught that one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES_LTF.png Size: 64 KB
  • #92
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:05am Dec 6, 2011 9:05am
Quoting LivestreamFX
I have been fading all the rallies past two days so that is the game I am going to stick to until I see a very strong Euro again - and Dollar drop. Yesterday as the market traded to 1266 level there was a substantial divergence between price and Delta - sellers where accumulating short positions into the rally - so I was a seller. Today we have that again at 1260 / 1261 levels.

I will try and put some charts up later so you can see the divergences between price action and the market order flow [large commercial firms main directional trading...
ok cool i understand now, the cumulative delta allows you to see the aggregate bid/ask volume over the course of an entire rally or leg of a rally. thats a good way to trade. i like the idea of fading moves that have contradicting orderflow.

thanks.
  • #93
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:00am Dec 6, 2011 10:00am
Quoting Lowell83
Very clean Delta Divergence, a textbook setup Id say. Why can't they all be like this one

2 or 3 (depending on how far your looking back) divergences on top of one another with a nice 7000 holding before the drop.

Hope you caught that one.
Oh yes, that was a classic - and the lower high after the second high pivot was another good area to engage short.
  • #94
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:02am Dec 6, 2011 10:02am
Quoting traderlars
ok cool i understand now, the cumulative delta allows you to see the aggregate bid/ask volume over the course of an entire rally or leg of a rally. thats a good way to trade. i like the idea of fading moves that have contradicting orderflow.

thanks.
That is one component of Delta tracking - another is the open interest ratio tracking and what levels of price are holding open held inventory.
  • #95
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:16pm Dec 6, 2011 3:16pm
What a nice close today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #96
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:54pm Dec 6, 2011 3:54pm
There were supply & demand events all over the place today in the ES - Delta Divergence, Hidden Divergence, and Minor Inventory Grabs. Rotation and sell-off from 1265 was very nice [with a Delta Divergence in place]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES - Supply & Demand Events.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #97
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:35pm Dec 6, 2011 4:35pm
anyone catch the move prior to the bailout rumour?
  • #98
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:09pm Dec 6, 2011 10:09pm
It was almost too perfectly set up - the ES had just moved into a major inventory grab prior to the news hit and substantial gap up move. Another one of the big after hours session rallies was started right out of a Delta Divergence supply & demand event. I am never surprised when news seems to hit right when the ES is loaded up with potential supply & demand event energy.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ES_DelDivnews.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #99
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:34am Dec 17, 2011 10:34am
Wow, looks like next week is going to be Interesting. No held long Inventory to speak of, they've been doing this a lot the past few weeks.

Multiday Hidden Divergence with the Inventory grab still in place.

First time I've been able to watch the delta through rollover week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #100
  • Dec 17, 2011 11:17am Dec 17, 2011 11:17am
SHORT bias from old contract has been building in new contract - not out of ordinary when market has weakness during rollover period. Also, we are caught up in year end equities fund/portfolio clean up actions as fund managers try to make bonuses for year end. They clean up their fund performance and dump the garbage out (equities selling). This has been very similar to Nov/Dec 2007 - hope we don't repeat what happened then in Jan 2008 - OOUCH!

For ES, we have too many sellers now holding SHORT positions in lower pricing range (open interest ratio highly out of balance creates inventory tension) - this could cause a heavy short term SHORT covering rally if any positive news pulls Equities in as heavy buyers soon (or sudden US Dollar sell-off) - we will see next week!
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